Game Analysis

Tampa Bay (-4) vs DALLAS

• The Buccaneers had a 10% rate of 13 personnel (1RB, 3TEs) in week 14 and averaged 0.31 EPA/play. Tampa Bay’s offense increased to a 23% rate of 13 personnel last week and they might continue to increase on Sunday night as the flaw in this Dallas defense is at linebacker.
• The Cowboys are surrendering a league-high 0.07 EPA/rush and they will struggle as the Buccaneers have a 43% rush success rate (9th).
• Tampa Bay TE Cade Otton is averaging 0.15 EPA/target (10th) and he has a favorable matchup as Dallas is surrendering a 60% success rate to opposing tight ends (27th).
• Buccaneers’ WR Mike Evans accounted for 42% of the Buccaneers targets last week and Cowboys’ defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer could shadow Evans with CB DaRon Bland, who is allowing only 0.83 yards per cover snap in his 4 games.
• Dallas nickelback Jourdan Lewis is conceding 0.97 yards per cover snap in the slot (7th) and is dealing with an elbow issue. Lewis said, “I’m a little banged up, but I feel I can go out there and play.”
• The Cowboys had 6 sacks last week in Carolina, but the pass rush will be limited as Tampa Bay’s offensive line ranks 2nd in pass blocking efficiency.
• Dallas is averaging 21% more yards per attempt against the blitz than a standard pass rush (2nd) and Cooper Rush will see plenty of extra pass rushers as the Buccaneers have a 50% blitz rate (2nd-highest).
• The Cowboys are hoping to get back C Cooper Beebe (he missed last week’s game with a concussion) to line up across from interior defender Vita Vea, who has 38 pressures (14th). Beebe ranks 8th in pass-blocking efficiency.
• Tampa Bay’s defense has an 87% zone coverage rate (2nd-highest), which is the best way to contain CeeDee Lamb. Dallas has a yards per attempt against zone only 83% of the yards per attempt versus man coverage.
• Our model favors the Buccaneers by just 1.1 points, with a predicted total of 47.2 points but the matchups favor the Bucs and Dallas is just 9-24 ATS following a win when facing a team with a winning record (1-2 this season). I decided to use Dallas in my spread pool (reluctantly).