Game Analysis

Tampa Bay (-2.5) vs DALLAS

· This Cowboys offense could be in trouble this year after losing starting LT Tyron Smith, RT La’el Collins, and WR Amari Cooper.

· Dak Prescott’s sack rate for his career goes from 5.3% with Tyron Smith to a 7.1% sack rate in 21 games without Smith.

· Amari Cooper led the Cowboys in yards per route run three of the four seasons the WR was in Dallas.

· The Cowboys will also likely be without starting WRs Michael Gallup (ACL) and James Washington (foot fracture) to start the season.

· Todd Bowles’s defense has finished 2nd in our metrics two years running and I expect them to be one of the league’s best units again in 2022.

· The Buccaneers added interior defender Akiem Hicks, who finished 15th in pass rushing efficiency his last full season in 2020 and had 5 sacks in eight games last season.

· Tampa Bay’s offense replaced guard Ali Marpet (6th in pass blocking efficiency) with G Shaq Mason (14th in pass blocking efficiency), but center Ryan Jensen (9th in pass blocking efficiency) is likely out for the year.

· We have Tom Brady’s unit dropping from 2nd in scoring last season to 6th for the upcoming year.

· The Cowboys defense allowed 21.2 points per game in 2021 (8th) but they will likely drop off this season.

· Dallas led the NFL with 34 takeaways which isn’t sustainable year over year.

· The Cowboys did not replace the production of edge defender Randy Gregory (12th in pass rushing efficiency).

· Our model favors the Buccaneers by 3.0 with a predicted total of 51.2.