Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Note: The Over was a Best Bet released to subscribers early in the week when the total was at 45.5 points. The line has moved considerably and is not worth playing at the current number.

Lean – Tampa Bay (+7) over DALLAS

The Cowboys were held scoreless for the first time in Jason Garrett’s tenure last week, but they were unfortunate to convert on just 5 of 17 3rd-4th downs and surrender two Colts takeaways inside the 10-yard-line. Dallas can lock up the NFC East with a win and I expect the offense to turn it around this week. Amari Cooper is gaining 2.56 yards per route run with the Cowboys, which ranks 5th in the NFL since week 9, and Dak Prescott should have plenty of time to connect downfield. Tampa Bay’s best pass rusher Jason Pierre-Paul is banged-up and stands little chance in the trenches versus Tyron Smith, who ranks 1st in pass blocking efficiency and is likely on his way to another All-Pro season. Ezekiel Elliott hasn’t seen his workload drop with Cooper in the lineup, as he’s averaging 28.7 touches per game, which is a whopping 6 touches per game above second place Saquon Barkley during that stretch. Elliott has a favorable matchup on Sunday even with Pro Bowl guard Zack Martin potentially unavailable. The Buccaneers rush defense ranks 31st and injuries at linebacker will force Lavonte David, conceding 1.47 yards per cover snap (2nd-worst), to defend Elliott out of the backfield.

Sean Lee played only 7 snaps against the Colts and vice president Stephen Jones indicated the team wanted to be conservative with the veteran linebacker moving forward so he’ll be limited again. Lee makes a massive difference in pass defense and Tampa Bay’s air attack should thrive if he’s only on the field for 15 snaps. Cowboy’s CB Byron Jones is surrendering an NFL-low 0.63 yards per cover snap and will likely cause problems for Mike Evans, making DeSean Jackson’s return to the lineup this week particularly timely. Jackson is averaging an impressive 2.35 yards per route run this season, but his speed opens up the field even when he’s not being targeted. The Buccaneers gained 6.7 yards per play through the first 12 weeks of the season before averaging just 4.9 yards per play without Jackson on the field the last 3 games. Jameis Winston should have time in the pocket to target Jackson deep with Dallas DE DeMarcus Lawrence limited by Demar Dotson, who’s ranked 5th in pass blocking efficiency.

Our model favors the Cowboys by a touchdown with a predicted total of 50.0 points and the Over is a Best Bet at 46 points or less, which it was early in the week when I released this play to subscribers. While there is no value on the side I will lean with Tampa Bay on the basis of a 130-48-3 ATS situation and an 84-29-5 ATS late-season contrary angle.

Team Stats
Game Log

Buccaneers
Cowboys

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 41.3 35.6
Succ Pass Plays 50.5% 51.1%
Sack Rate 6.1% 7.6%
Int Rate 4.4% 1.5%
Deep Pass Rate 24.1% 19.4%
Big Pass Yards 44.0% 40.6%
NYPP 7.9 7.4

Rush

Rush Plays 25.3 27.8
RB YPR 3.5 4.5
Stuff Rate 23.9% 23.3%
Succ Rush Plays 42.7% 49.7%
Big Rush Yards 42.7% 58.4%
Yards Per Rush 3.9 4.7

Game

All Snaps 66.6 63.4
Early Down Succ 48.1% 55.3%
Succ Rate 47.3% 50.7%
Big Yards Rate 44.3% 47.5%
Yards Per Play 6.3 6.2
Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 0.8%
Time Per Play (sec) 27.6 28.5
Run Ratio 38.2% 43.8%
Starting Field Pos 26.2 28.4
Game Control -3.0 3.0

Points 24.6 28.8

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@NO	48 – 40 W	7.4	64.3% / 73.9%	0.0% / 2.2%	0.0% / 0.0%	14.9 / 9.4	43.2% / 69.2%	18.9% / 23.1%	3.1 / 3.3	65 / 59	56.5% / 77.6%	52.3% / 72.9%	62.7% / 36.4%	8.2 / 8.1	0.0% / 3.4%	56.9% / 22.0%	26.4 / 25.9
2	PHI	27 – 21 W	11.1	60.0% / 42.0%	5.7% / 6.0%	3.0% / 0.0%	11.2 / 6.4	25.0% / 54.2%	41.7% / 20.8%	1.8 / 3.8	59 / 74	48.9% / 48.1%	45.8% / 45.9%	45.3% / 36.2%	7.4 / 5.6	1.7% / 2.7%	40.7% / 32.4%	27.2 / 25.5
3	PIT	27 – 30 L	-9.7	45.3% / 51.2%	5.7% / 7.3%	6.0% / 2.6%	7.4 / 8.2	47.1% / 36.0%	17.6% / 28.0%	3.8 / 3.2	70 / 66	48.3% / 54.0%	45.7% / 45.5%	43.6% / 45.4%	6.5 / 6.3	1.4% / 0.0%	24.3% / 37.9%	25.2 / 28.0
4	@CHI	10 – 48 L	-27.7	45.2% / 66.7%	9.5% / 3.7%	7.9% / 0.0%	6.0 / 12.7	38.9% / 51.5%	22.2% / 27.3%	3.3 / 4.3	60 / 60	45.7% / 64.6%	43.3% / 58.3%	32.8% / 72.6%	5.2 / 8.1	0.0% / 0.0%	30.0% / 55.0%	23.8 / 27.5
6	@ATL	29 – 34 L	-6.3	61.9% / 57.1%	4.8% / 2.4%	5.0% / 0.0%	9.3 / 8.2	55.0% / 40.9%	25.0% / 36.4%	6.2 / 3.2	62 / 64	59.3% / 49.0%	59.7% / 51.6%	32.8% / 40.9%	8.3 / 6.5	0.0% / 0.0%	32.3% / 34.4%	28.6 / 21.9
7	CLE	26 – 23 W	6.5	51.8% / 38.5%	7.1% / 12.8%	3.8% / 0.0%	6.1 / 4.8	42.4% / 39.1%	30.3% / 30.4%	3.5 / 5.2	89 / 62	49.3% / 45.7%	48.3% / 38.7%	35.4% / 41.0%	5.1 / 4.9	2.2% / 1.6%	37.1% / 37.1%	21.3 / 37.6
8	@CIN	34 – 37 L	-10.5	41.1% / 48.6%	10.7% / 5.7%	8.0% / 0.0%	8.0 / 7.5	51.9% / 42.9%	11.1% / 28.6%	4.7 / 5.0	83 / 63	39.7% / 50.0%	44.6% / 46.0%	49.0% / 54.6%	6.9 / 6.4	0.0% / 0.0%	32.5% / 44.4%	24.5 / 29.5
9	@CAR	28 – 42 L	-14.2	47.7% / 55.6%	6.8% / 7.4%	4.9% / 0.0%	5.0 / 8.4	23.8% / 48.6%	23.8% / 11.4%	3.9 / 5.2	65 / 62	39.2% / 62.2%	40.0% / 51.6%	49.5% / 56.0%	4.6 / 6.6	0.0% / 0.0%	32.3% / 56.5%	24.6 / 34.8
10	WAS	3 – 16 L	-4.7	62.8% / 40.0%	4.7% / 10.0%	4.9% / 0.0%	9.3 / 5.7	45.8% / 56.0%	25.0% / 32.0%	4.3 / 4.6	67 / 55	56.1% / 50.0%	56.7% / 47.3%	36.5% / 39.9%	7.5 / 5.2	3.0% / 0.0%	35.8% / 45.5%	19.0 / 29.7
11	@NYG	35 – 38 L	-10.5	55.3% / 54.5%	2.6% / 18.2%	10.8% / 0.0%	9.4 / 8.9	56.7% / 59.4%	20.0% / 9.4%	5.0 / 5.1	68 / 54	54.4% / 62.8%	55.9% / 57.4%	55.5% / 59.4%	7.5 / 6.7	0.0% / 0.0%	44.1% / 59.3%	24.6 / 28.5
12	SF	27 – 9 W	8.9	56.4% / 44.4%	2.6% / 11.1%	0.0% / 6.3%	7.8 / 5.4	33.3% / 48.0%	24.2% / 24.0%	3.3 / 6.0	72 / 61	47.3% / 52.9%	45.8% / 45.9%	39.6% / 58.3%	5.8 / 5.6	0.0% / 0.0%	45.8% / 41.0%	22.1 / 20.6
13	CAR	24 – 17 W	6.2	50.0% / 47.8%	11.8% / 8.7%	0.0% / 9.5%	6.5 / 6.0	36.0% / 55.0%	40.0% / 15.0%	3.8 / 8.5	59 / 66	43.5% / 54.5%	44.1% / 50.0%	41.6% / 54.2%	5.3 / 6.7	1.7% / 0.0%	42.4% / 30.3%	35.2 / 21.3
14	NO	14 – 28 L	3.3	38.1% / 59.4%	9.5% / 3.1%	2.6% / 3.2%	4.1 / 6.2	43.5% / 40.6%	26.1% / 28.1%	4.6 / 3.2	65 / 64	39.2% / 53.2%	40.0% / 50.0%	36.2% / 30.7%	4.3 / 4.7	0.0% / 1.6%	35.4% / 50.0%	29.5 / 34.8
15	@BAL	12 – 20 L	-2.3	26.9% / 36.0%	3.8% / 8.0%	4.0% / 0.0%	6.0 / 5.1	54.5% / 53.8%	9.1% / 11.5%	3.9 / 4.7	48 / 77	45.7% / 49.1%	39.6% / 48.1%	59.1% / 39.7%	5.0 / 4.8	0.0% / 2.6%	45.8% / 67.5%	34.8 / 32.3

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@CAR	8 – 16 L	-6.7	37.1% / 50.0%	17.1% / 10.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	3.9 / 5.2	26.1% / 44.7%	17.4% / 21.1%	4.1 / 3.9	58 / 66	38.6% / 58.7%	32.8% / 47.0%	22.7% / 28.7%	4.0 / 4.5	1.7% / 1.5%	39.7% / 57.6%	21.4 / 38.1
2	NYG	20 – 13 W	10.5	36.0% / 36.0%	0.0% / 12.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.4 / 4.4	59.3% / 47.1%	14.8% / 35.3%	5.2 / 2.1	52 / 67	56.8% / 33.3%	48.1% / 38.8%	48.3% / 18.4%	5.8 / 3.8	0.0% / 1.5%	51.9% / 25.4%	27.6 / 27.9
3	@SEA	13 – 24 L	-8.3	28.2% / 42.9%	12.8% / 7.1%	5.9% / 0.0%	3.5 / 6.5	52.6% / 30.0%	15.8% / 30.0%	8.7 / 2.9	58 / 68	39.5% / 34.0%	36.2% / 35.3%	51.2% / 34.8%	5.2 / 4.4	1.7% / 0.0%	32.8% / 58.8%	25.9 / 27.2
4	DET	26 – 24 W	1.7	50.0% / 54.5%	10.0% / 9.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.7 / 8.7	55.6% / 40.0%	22.2% / 25.0%	5.1 / 4.8	66 / 53	56.9% / 47.6%	53.0% / 49.1%	51.6% / 64.1%	6.3 / 7.2	0.0% / 0.0%	54.5% / 37.7%	21.8 / 23.8
5	@HOU	16 – 19 L	0.3	65.0% / 79.4%	10.0% / 2.9%	11.1% / 3.0%	9.7 / 11.0	36.7% / 32.3%	30.0% / 32.3%	3.3 / 2.8	50 / 65	43.2% / 53.3%	48.0% / 56.9%	52.9% / 30.1%	5.9 / 7.1	0.0% / 1.5%	60.0% / 47.7%	30.8 / 27.9
6	JAC	40 – 7 W	18.5	36.7% / 48.3%	10.0% / 10.3%	0.0% / 3.8%	5.7 / 4.8	45.2% / 38.9%	23.8% / 16.7%	4.9 / 3.6	72 / 47	39.6% / 48.6%	41.7% / 44.7%	45.0% / 32.4%	5.3 / 4.3	0.0% / 2.1%	58.3% / 38.3%	37.8 / 26.4
7	@WAS	17 – 20 L	-4.7	41.0% / 42.3%	10.3% / 3.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.4 / 6.7	54.5% / 40.6%	27.3% / 40.6%	3.3 / 4.1	61 / 58	48.9% / 46.7%	45.9% / 41.4%	45.8% / 46.6%	5.3 / 5.3	3.3% / 0.0%	36.1% / 55.2%	21.4 / 33.4
9	TEN	14 – 28 L	-2.1	45.9% / 51.5%	13.5% / 12.1%	3.1% / 0.0%	6.1 / 6.5	57.9% / 47.5%	26.3% / 15.0%	3.8 / 3.2	56 / 73	52.3% / 47.2%	50.0% / 49.3%	43.1% / 43.6%	5.3 / 4.7	1.8% / 2.7%	33.9% / 54.8%	33.8 / 28.6
10	@PHI	27 – 20 W	4.0	50.0% / 55.6%	10.0% / 4.4%	0.0% / 2.3%	6.0 / 7.8	46.4% / 56.3%	21.4% / 31.3%	6.1 / 4.4	68 / 61	47.1% / 61.2%	48.5% / 55.7%	50.2% / 32.1%	6.0 / 6.9	0.0% / 0.0%	41.2% / 26.2%	25.6 / 32.3
11	@ATL	22 – 19 W	1.1	50.0% / 56.8%	5.9% / 8.1%	0.0% / 2.9%	5.6 / 7.4	62.1% / 61.1%	13.8% / 27.8%	4.6 / 4.4	63 / 55	58.0% / 60.5%	55.6% / 58.2%	28.8% / 39.0%	5.1 / 6.4	0.0% / 0.0%	46.0% / 32.7%	26.8 / 29.1
12	WAS	31 – 23 W	6.3	45.7% / 51.2%	11.4% / 7.3%	0.0% / 7.9%	7.4 / 6.1	41.7% / 42.9%	16.7% / 14.3%	4.1 / 3.9	71 / 62	48.1% / 53.1%	43.7% / 48.4%	50.5% / 34.9%	5.7 / 5.4	0.0% / 0.0%	50.7% / 33.9%	26.9 / 32.1
13	NO	13 – 10 W	6.7	48.6% / 30.0%	20.0% / 6.7%	0.0% / 3.6%	5.9 / 3.7	37.1% / 57.9%	20.0% / 21.1%	2.9 / 3.4	70 / 49	46.0% / 45.9%	42.9% / 40.8%	28.0% / 24.4%	4.4 / 3.6	2.9% / 0.0%	50.0% / 38.8%	28.6 / 25.4
14	PHI	29 – 23 W	3.1	57.9% / 52.9%	5.3% / 5.9%	3.7% / 0.0%	7.6 / 6.5	50.0% / 21.4%	27.8% / 42.9%	3.9 / 2.4	93 / 48	54.8% / 50.0%	54.8% / 43.8%	38.0% / 45.7%	6.2 / 5.3	1.1% / 2.1%	38.7% / 29.2%	22.6 / 36.4
15	@IND	0 – 23 L	-12.0	47.6% / 53.8%	7.1% / 0.0%	2.6% / 0.0%	4.3 / 7.4	63.6% / 47.6%	9.1% / 19.0%	5.1 / 4.3	64 / 68	61.7% / 51.0%	53.1% / 50.0%	15.4% / 40.2%	4.6 / 5.5	1.6% / 1.5%	34.4% / 61.8%	29.1 / 27.0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @

Dallas Cowboys

Sun, Dec 23

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis