Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – CAROLINA (+6) over Tampa Bay

• Bryce Young has been more composed since coming back from his benching, as his pressure-to-sack ratio had come down from 30% to 12%.
• Young averaged 0.34 EPA/play versus the blitz last week and he will need to show composure on Sunday as Tampa Bay’s defense has a 47% blitz rate (2nd-highest).
• The Panthers running backs have a 20% target share (8th-highest) and the screen game has a favorable matchup against a Buccaneers defense surrendering 0.20 EPA/target to opposing running backs (27th).
• Tampa Bay edge rusher Yaya Diaby has 43 pressures (10th) but he will be shut down by RT Taylor Moton, who ranks 3rd in pass blocking efficiency.
• However, Carolina backup center Cade Mays will struggle across from interior defender Vita Vea, who ranks 12th in pass-rushing efficiency.
• The Panthers’ yppp against Cover 4 is a league-low 64% of the yppp versus other coverages and Young will be tested in this game. The Buccaneers defense has the 5th-highest Cover 4 rate.
• Carolina’s offense has the 6th-highest run-play rate adjusted for the situation and they have a favorable matchup on the ground as Tampa Bay’s defense is allowing 4.7 yards per carry (25th).
• Buccaneers’ left tackle Tristan Wirfs leads the league in pass-blocking efficiency and could be back in uniform this week.
• Tampa Bay’s running backs have a 23% target share (3rd-highest) but Baker Mayfield’s screen game will be contained as the Panthers defense is conceding a 40% receiving success rate to opposing running backs (9th).
• Carolina CB Jaycee Horn is conceding 0.83 yards per cover snap (17th) and he will battle with WR Mike Evans, who has a 61% success rate (10th).
• Our model favors the Buccaneers by 6.1 points, with a predicted total of 44.9 points, but Carolina is worth a play based on a 37-1-1 ATS subset of a 89-34-3 ATS contrary indicator based on the difference in season average line-differentials of these teams.

Carolina is a Strong Opinion at +6 or more.