Tampa Bay Buccaneers @

Carolina Panthers

Sun, Dec 26
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 457
Odds: Carolina Panthers +10.5, Total: 43.5

Game Analysis

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Note: With the Tampa Bay Team Total now above 27 and the game total at 44 (instead of 43.5) you can consider the Over 44 a 1-Star play if you didn’t get down on TB Team Total Over 27 or less at -120 odds or better.

1-Star Best Bet – *Tampa Bay Team Total Over (27 -115)

Lean – Tampa Bay (-10.5) over CAROLINA

Tom Brady completed only 33% of pass attempts that traveled over 10 yards downfield last week in the shutout loss to New Orleans, but he will have to look deep against the Panthers with LB Shaq Thompson covering the underneath routes. Thompson is a good in pass coverage and saw 5 targets from Josh Allen last week and conceded only 17 yards. Tampa Bay WR Mike Evans has 10 receptions on passes with 20+ air yards (6th), but he is banged-up with a hamstring injury and will be blanketed by cornerback Stephon Gilmore, who is conceding only 5.7 yards per target. Buccaneers’ wide receiver Chris Godwin is now out for the season with a torn ACL. Godwin was averaging 1.97 yards per route run (13th) and is worth 0.8 points. Fortunately for Brady, WR Antonio Brown will be back on the field, and he ranked 5th averaging 2.82 yards per route run before suffering an ankle injury in week 6. Carolina edge rusher Haason Reddick has 11.0 sacks (8th) but he will be shut down by RT Tristan Wirfs, who leads the league in pass blocking efficiency.

Cam Newton is averaging just 4.7 yards per pass play and averaged just 3.2 yppp last week in Buffalo, and we could see Sam Darnold (5.7 yppp) back in the mix this week. Panthers left tackle Cam Erving surrendered 9 pressures versus the Bills and now he must line up across from edge defender Shaquil Barrett, who ranks 10th in pass rushing efficiency. Carolina running backs Ameer Abdullah had four receptions for 48 yards last week and Newton/Darnold will have to find him out of the backfield again as Tampa Bay’s defense will be without Lavonte David, who is one of the best cover linebackers in the NFL.

Our model favors the Buccaneers by 12.5 points, with a predicted total of 47.5 points, which projects 30 points for Tampa Bay. Plus, I expect Tom Brady to bounce back with a good performance following the shutout loss to the Saints last week. Brady is 40-15 ATS as a starter the week after scoring less than 20 points (4-0 with Tampa Bay and all 4 wins by 20 points or more and an average of 39.8 points) and the team total for Brady’s teams in those games is 39-15-1 Over (4-0 with TB).

The Tampa Bay Team Total over 27 is a 1-Star Best Bet at -120 odds or better. The game Over 43.5 (at 44 or less) is the alternate play if you don’t have team totals.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Buccaneers
  • Panthers
TB
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 45.21 42.57
  • Succ Pass Plays 51.5% 47.1%
  • Sack Rate 3.3% 6.2%
  • Int Rate 1.8% 2.7%
  • Deep Pass Rate 17.8% 14.4%
  • Big Pass Yards 37.5% 35.5%
  • NYPP 6.74 5.75



Rush


  • Rush Plays 22.36 21.36
  • RB YPR 4.34 3.89
  • Stuff Rate 19.8% 28.1%
  • Succ Rush Plays 56.5% 44.8%
  • Big Rush Yards 36.5% 51.2%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.36 4.17




Game

  • All Snaps 67.57 63.93
  • Early Down Succ 55.6% 49.9%
  • Succ Rate 53.2% 46.4%
  • Big Yards Rate 37.3% 39.5%
  • Yards Per Play 5.95 5.22
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 1.1%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.32 28.04
  • Run Ratio 33.1% 33.4%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control 4.15 -4.15
 
  • Points 29.29 21.86
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