Game Analysis
Plenty of moving parts for both teams as the spread has come down from -7 to -5.5, with the most significant factor being reigning league-MVP being replaced by journeyman Derek Anderson. Cam is worth 2.5 points conservatively vs. Anderson, as the QB1 is also the Panthers leading rusher so far this season. The Bucs started the season with high hopes and a promising win that looks more and more impressive against the since unbeaten Falcons. However, the Bucs D and self-inflicted turnovers have since put Jameis in precarious situations (-5.6 Game Control Rating) and he has needed to force the ball down the field with limited success as he now sports a 5.6 NYPP. With the uncertainty surrounding this particular game the advanced stats model does not see any value on the side or total, so it is a pass on this Monday Night matchup.
Look for potential 2H plays from our new in-game model by following @EVBettor.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
47.0
35.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
44.4%
48.0%
-
Sack Rate
5.3%
6.3%
-
Int Rate
4.5%
1.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
20.5%
19.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
27.8%
46.2%
-
NYPP
5.6
7.4
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.0
30.3
-
RB YPR
3.1
3.1
-
Stuff Rate
21.1%
24.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.0%
38.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
32.3%
28.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.3
3.1
Game
-
All Snaps
73.0
65.3
-
Early Down Succ
45.3%
48.6%
-
Succ Rate
41.9%
44.2%
-
Big Yards Rate
28.9%
42.3%
-
Yards Per Play
4.7
5.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
0.4%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
24.8
27.5
-
Run Ratio
36.5%
46.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
25.2
31.4
-
Game Control
-5.6
5.6
Pass
-
Pass Plays
41.8
34.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
44.0%
47.6%
-
Sack Rate
7.9%
6.6%
-
Int Rate
4.6%
4.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.9%
15.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
36.1%
39.5%
-
NYPP
6.3
7.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.0
27.5
-
RB YPR
3.8
3.1
-
Stuff Rate
16.9%
28.6%
-
Succ Rush Plays
50.6%
36.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
35.8%
45.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.2
3.3
Game
-
All Snaps
69.8
61.5
-
Early Down Succ
47.8%
46.7%
-
Succ Rate
47.3%
42.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
36.5%
42.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.5
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.8
26.9
-
Run Ratio
39.7%
45.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.5
28.4
-
Game Control
-0.0
0.0
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@ATL |
31 – 24 W |
4.7 |
57.6% /
50.0% |
0.0% /
7.1% |
3.0% /
0.0% |
8.5 /
7.7 |
28.1% /
30.4% |
21.9% /
30.4% |
2.9 /
2.3 |
65 /
65 |
51.0% /
50.0% |
43.1% /
43.1% |
48.3% /
43.2% |
5.7 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
49.2% /
35.4% |
23.8 /
30.8 |
| 2 |
@ARI |
7 – 40 L |
-16.6 |
40.0% /
50.0% |
5.5% /
2.8% |
7.7% /
0.0% |
4.0 /
8.8 |
40.9% /
34.5% |
22.7% /
20.7% |
3.9 /
3.5 |
77 /
65 |
42.6% /
43.1% |
40.3% /
43.1% |
19.5% /
55.0% |
4.0 /
6.4 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
28.6% /
44.6% |
25.7 /
28.8 |
| 3 |
LA |
32 – 37 L |
-0.7 |
50.0% /
40.7% |
3.3% /
3.7% |
1.7% /
3.8% |
6.5 /
6.8 |
65.2% /
57.6% |
17.4% /
21.2% |
3.7 /
4.2 |
83 /
60 |
55.6% /
51.1% |
54.2% /
50.0% |
30.9% /
43.4% |
5.7 /
5.3 |
1.2% /
1.7% |
27.7% /
55.0% |
28.5 /
28.9 |
| 4 |
DEN |
7 – 27 L |
-9.7 |
30.0% /
51.4% |
12.5% /
11.4% |
5.7% /
0.0% |
3.6 /
6.2 |
29.6% /
30.6% |
22.2% /
25.0% |
2.7 /
2.6 |
67 /
71 |
31.9% /
50.0% |
29.9% /
40.8% |
17.1% /
27.4% |
3.2 /
4.4 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
40.3% /
50.7% |
22.8 /
37.0 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@DEN |
20 – 21 L |
4.1 |
41.2% /
50.0% |
8.8% /
7.1% |
3.2% /
7.7% |
5.2 /
5.7 |
68.8% /
45.2% |
9.4% /
19.4% |
4.9 /
4.8 |
66 /
59 |
52.9% /
50.0% |
54.5% /
47.5% |
12.9% /
54.7% |
5.0 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
48.5% /
52.5% |
26.3 /
28.9 |
| 2 |
SF |
46 – 27 W |
7.8 |
47.5% /
39.5% |
2.5% /
5.3% |
2.6% /
5.6% |
8.8 /
6.2 |
40.5% /
34.6% |
24.3% /
26.9% |
4.8 /
2.5 |
77 /
64 |
43.5% /
41.7% |
44.2% /
37.5% |
55.6% /
46.7% |
6.9 /
4.7 |
3.9% /
1.6% |
48.1% /
40.6% |
31.8 /
33.9 |
| 3 |
MIN |
10 – 22 L |
-0.7 |
34.1% /
43.3% |
18.2% /
6.7% |
8.3% /
0.0% |
4.6 /
5.1 |
46.4% /
30.8% |
7.1% /
34.6% |
3.8 /
2.3 |
72 /
56 |
41.5% /
45.0% |
38.9% /
37.5% |
41.5% /
6.6% |
4.3 /
3.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
38.9% /
46.4% |
24.0 /
29.9 |
| 4 |
@ATL |
33 – 48 L |
-11.4 |
53.1% /
57.5% |
2.0% /
7.5% |
4.2% /
2.7% |
6.7 /
12.0 |
46.7% /
37.0% |
26.7% /
33.3% |
3.3 /
3.4 |
64 /
67 |
53.2% /
50.0% |
51.6% /
49.3% |
36.0% /
63.0% |
5.9 /
8.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
23.4% /
40.3% |
23.9 /
20.9 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
@ 
Carolina Panthers