Game Analysis

Lean – Under (44) – ATLANTA (-1.5) vs Tampa Bay

• Tampa Bay’s defense had 6 sacks and a 57% pressure rate on Jalen Hurts last week and the pass rush will be a large factor again on Thursday night.
• Falcons’ backup right tackle Storm Norton surrendered an 8.3% pressure rate last week in his first start. He will struggle to contain edge defender Yaya Diaby, who ranks 4th in pass-rushing efficiency.
• Atlanta’s offense benefitted from a pick-six and a special teams score from a fumble recovery on a muffed punt in last week’s deceiving win over the Saints. Kirk Cousins had just a 35.0% dropback success rate in week 4.
• Buccaneers’ cornerback Zyon McCollum is conceding just 0.40 yards per cover snap (5th) and he will limit WR Drake London, who leads the Falcons with 31 targets.
• Atlanta’s offense will fall on the shoulders of RB Bijan Robinson as Tampa Bay’s defense is surrendering a league-high 0.10 EPA/rush. Robinson is averaging 1.61 yards per route run (5th) and will be a contributor in the screen game as well because the Buccaneers are allowing a 55% success rate to opposing running backs (27th).
• Baker Mayfield leads the NFL with +17.1 EPA on passes under 2.5 seconds and he will continue getting the ball out quickly on Thursday night.
• Tampa Bay WR Chris Godwin has a 73% success rate (2nd) and he has a favorable matchup versus CB Dee Alford, who is surrendering 1.85 yards per slot cover snap (3rd-worst).
• Buccaneers backup RT Justin Skule has surrendered 3 sacks in as many games (3rd-most) and starter Luke Goedeke will be out for another game.
• Our model favors the Falcons by 0.3 with a predicted total of 42.1 points, but I’m using Atlanta in my spread pool based on a 51-128-5 ATS letdown situation that the Bucs apply to.