Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – Tampa Bay (+3) over ATLANTA

Lean – Under (57.5)

The Falcons have failed to cover 3-straight weeks, yet somehow the market is still not properly accounting for injuries to 4 of their top 6 players on a defense rated 28th by our metrics. Keanu Neal, Deion Jones, Ricardo Allen, and Grady Jarrett have all missed time and even owner Arthur Blank said: “this is not excuses, but reality is reality, we’ve had some very difficult injuries to really good players”. Blank is right, of course, as those four players sum to nearly 3 points of value for Atlanta’s defense. While there’s a chance Jarrett returns, I still expect Jameis Winston to move Tampa Bay’s talented offense down the field with ease in his first start of the season.

The Falcons will also be without starting guard Andy Levitre again, which should allow Gerald McCoy to dominate inside. Atlanta’s offense has converted on a whopping 47% of 3rd-downs this season, a higher rate than even their 2016 team that finished 7th all-time in scoring, and I certainly expect their 3rd-down performance to drop-off with an offense rated around average overall according to our metrics. Furthermore, it is unlikely the Buccaneers defense will continue to surrender 7.2 yards per play as the season progresses as no team conceded more than 6.0 yards per play in the last two years.

Tampa Bay has an advantage coming off a bye and home-field advantage is worth about a point less in divisional games. The Buccaneers have played the league’s most difficult schedule and the Falcons will be the easiest team they’ve faced this season according to our ratings after starting the year with three 2017 division champions and the much-improved Bears. Our model favors Atlanta by 2.9 points assuming Jarrett is able to suit up, so the line is pretty fair, but the Bucs apply to a 117-43-5 ATS situation. I’ll lean with Tampa Bay at +3 or more and I also will lean with the Under, as our model projects a total of 54.4 points.

Team Stats
Game Log

Buccaneers
Falcons

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 39.5 41.0
Succ Pass Plays 53.7% 58.4%
Sack Rate 5.2% 4.8%
Int Rate 4.2% 0.7%
Deep Pass Rate 25.9% 19.6%
Big Pass Yards 49.2% 48.2%
NYPP 9.9 9.2

Rush

Rush Plays 24.0 23.8
RB YPR 2.6 3.4
Stuff Rate 25.1% 24.8%
Succ Rush Plays 38.5% 52.7%
Big Rush Yards 28.8% 44.8%
Yards Per Rush 3.0 3.7

Game

All Snaps 63.5 64.8
Early Down Succ 49.8% 61.1%
Succ Rate 46.8% 55.7%
Big Yards Rate 46.1% 47.6%
Yards Per Play 6.8 7.0
Fumble Lost Rate 0.8% 1.5%
Time Per Play (sec) 27.9 28.2
Run Ratio 38.0% 36.8%
Starting Field Pos 25.7 26.7
Game Control -4.7 4.7

Points 28.0 34.8

ATL

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 38.4 39.4
Succ Pass Plays 56.3% 55.6%
Sack Rate 8.0% 3.7%
Int Rate 1.2% 2.6%
Deep Pass Rate 20.1% 14.8%
Big Pass Yards 42.8% 29.5%
NYPP 8.1 7.6

Rush

Rush Plays 23.2 25.8
RB YPR 3.7 4.5
Stuff Rate 29.3% 14.2%
Succ Rush Plays 39.8% 56.1%
Big Rush Yards 40.3% 43.9%
Yards Per Rush 3.7 4.9

Game

All Snaps 61.6 65.2
Early Down Succ 48.3% 51.7%
Succ Rate 49.5% 54.0%
Big Yards Rate 43.0% 35.1%
Yards Per Play 6.4 6.2
Fumble Lost Rate 0.4% 0.3%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.9 29.7
Run Ratio 37.8% 40.7%
Starting Field Pos 27.6 28.1
Game Control -0.8 0.8

Points 26.6 32.6

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@NO	48 – 40 W	7.4	64.3% / 73.9%	0.0% / 2.2%	0.0% / 0.0%	14.9 / 9.4	43.2% / 69.2%	18.9% / 23.1%	3.1 / 3.3	65 / 59	56.5% / 77.6%	52.3% / 72.9%	62.7% / 36.4%	8.2 / 8.1	0.0% / 3.4%	56.9% / 22.0%	26.4 / 25.9
2	PHI	27 – 21 W	11.1	60.0% / 42.0%	5.7% / 6.0%	3.0% / 0.0%	11.2 / 6.4	25.0% / 54.2%	41.7% / 20.8%	1.8 / 3.8	59 / 74	48.9% / 48.1%	45.8% / 45.9%	45.3% / 36.2%	7.4 / 5.6	1.7% / 2.7%	40.7% / 32.4%	27.2 / 25.5
3	PIT	27 – 30 L	-9.7	45.3% / 51.2%	5.7% / 7.3%	6.0% / 2.6%	7.4 / 8.2	47.1% / 36.0%	17.6% / 28.0%	3.8 / 3.2	70 / 66	48.3% / 54.0%	45.7% / 45.5%	43.6% / 45.4%	6.5 / 6.3	1.4% / 0.0%	24.3% / 37.9%	25.2 / 28.0
4	@CHI	10 – 48 L	-27.7	45.2% / 66.7%	9.5% / 3.7%	7.9% / 0.0%	6.0 / 12.7	38.9% / 51.5%	22.2% / 27.3%	3.3 / 4.3	60 / 60	45.7% / 64.6%	43.3% / 58.3%	32.8% / 72.6%	5.2 / 8.1	0.0% / 0.0%	30.0% / 55.0%	23.8 / 27.5

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@PHI	12 – 18 L	0.9	31.9% / 32.4%	8.5% / 5.4%	2.3% / 2.9%	4.8 / 3.2	44.4% / 53.6%	27.8% / 21.4%	4.1 / 4.1	65 / 65	38.8% / 40.4%	35.4% / 41.5%	49.5% / 20.6%	4.6 / 3.6	0.0% / 1.5%	27.7% / 43.1%	35.2 / 22.2
2	CAR	31 – 24 W	5.0	67.9% / 53.2%	0.0% / 4.3%	3.6% / 2.2%	9.7 / 6.8	50.0% / 66.7%	31.3% / 11.1%	5.3 / 6.7	60 / 65	59.2% / 58.5%	58.3% / 56.9%	55.9% / 44.4%	7.4 / 6.8	0.0% / 0.0%	53.3% / 27.7%	26.2 / 19.5
3	NO	37 – 43 L	-0.3	63.2% / 56.0%	7.9% / 2.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.4 / 7.8	21.7% / 53.6%	43.5% / 14.3%	2.1 / 5.1	61 / 78	52.1% / 57.4%	47.5% / 55.1%	36.3% / 37.9%	6.7 / 6.9	0.0% / 0.0%	37.7% / 35.9%	24.1 / 29.8
4	CIN	36 – 37 L	-0.5	61.9% / 52.3%	7.1% / 6.8%	0.0% / 2.4%	9.6 / 7.0	45.8% / 56.5%	12.5% / 8.7%	3.8 / 4.3	66 / 67	52.0% / 50.9%	56.1% / 53.7%	37.2% / 33.4%	7.5 / 6.1	0.0% / 0.0%	36.4% / 34.3%	32.4 / 33.0
5	@PIT	17 – 41 L	-8.9	56.8% / 84.2%	16.2% / 0.0%	0.0% / 5.3%	7.1 / 13.2	36.8% / 50.0%	31.6% / 15.6%	3.3 / 4.1	56 / 51	39.6% / 51.1%	50.0% / 62.7%	36.1% / 39.3%	5.8 / 7.5	1.8% / 0.0%	33.9% / 62.7%	20.3 / 36.1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @

Atlanta Falcons

Sun, Oct 14

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis