Game Analysis

Lean – ARIZONA (+7.5) over Tampa Bay

Lean – Under (40.5)

· This game will be about the players not on the field. The Cardinals are without Kyler Murray and backup Colt McCoy which brings Trace McSorley up to the plate.

· McSorley was a 6th round pick in 2019 and has less than 40 career passing attempts. I think it’s safe to say he’s at least 3 points worse than McCoy.

· The Buccaneers have a 9.05% sacks rate (5th) and McSorely will have to navigate behind an Arizona offensive line missing four starters. Furthermore, the only remaining starter, RT Kelvin Beachum, has his status up in the air.

· The good news for McSorely is Tampa Bay’s defensive line won’t have DT Vita Vea, who ranks 9th in pass rushing efficiency.

· The Buccaneers also will be without top cornerback Jamel Dean, who ranks 11th in PFF’s coverage grade.

· Tampa Bay CB Carlton Davis held Ja’Marr Chase in shadow coverage last week to only 3 receptions on 8 targets for 32 yards. Davis had an interception and forced 5 tight windows against the Bengals. Davis will line up across from Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins, whose 56% success rate ranks 25th.

· The Buccaneers dominated Cincinnati last week but had 5 straight possessions end in a turnover to start the second half while squandering their lead.

· Tampa Bay head coach Todd Bowles is already conservative by nature, and I think he is likely to put an emphasis on the ground game with a lack of risk taking to prevent any takeaways on Christmas.

· Tom Brady will be ecstatic to get back right tackle Tristan Wirfs, who leads the NFL in pass blocking efficiency. However, Tampa Bay’s offensive line will now be without left tackle Donovan Smith and he is worth a half point.

· Brady will continue his short passes to Leonard Fournette, whose 59% success rate is highest among running backs. Arizona’s defense allows 6.4 yards per target to running backs (29th).

· The Cardinals won’t have interior defender Zach Allen, who has 34 pressures (15th). Allen is worth 0.4 points.

· Arizona interior defender JJ Watt did well even without Allen next to him on the line last week. Watt had three sacks, a forced fumble, and a batted pass versus the Patriots. Although Watt will be limited in this game by RG Shaq Mason, who ranks 10th in pass blocking efficiency.

· Our model favors the Buccaneers by 6.9 points with a predicted total of 38.4 points, and the Cardinals apply to a 38-7-5 ATS late-season home underdog situation.