Game Analysis
Lean – Seattle (+1.5) over WASHINGTON
Lean – Over (46.5)
The Seahawks are underrated after scoring 13 total points in the two games since Russell Wilson returned and only winning once since week 4. It looks like Wilson prematurely came back from hisĀ finger surgery but he should be getting healthier each week and should not be an underdog to Taylor Heincke. Opposing quarterbacks have been taking downfield shots against Washington CB William Jackson as his average depth of target surrendered is 13.7 yards (6th-highest). Tyler Lockett leads the NFL with 11 deep receptions and will likely get behind Jackson at least once on Monday night.
Seattle’s linebackers Jordyn Brooks and Bobby Wagner surrendered 17 receptions for 158 yards and a touchdown last week. Heinicke will look to attack Brooks and Wagner as running back JD McKissic is averaging 1.83 yards per route run (3rd).
Our model favors the Seahawks by 1.1 with a predicted total of 48.8 points and Seattle is 16-2-1 ATS in games after consecutive loss under coach Peter Carroll, including 3-0 ATS this season.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
31.90
42.10
-
Succ Pass Plays
44.2%
52.5%
-
Sack Rate
10.3%
4.0%
-
Int Rate
1.4%
1.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
21.8%
14.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
48.2%
31.4%
-
NYPP
6.28
6.64
Rush
-
Rush Plays
23.10
30.70
-
RB YPR
4.14
3.78
-
Stuff Rate
22.1%
21.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
53.7%
52.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
40.7%
31.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.26
3.98
Game
-
All Snaps
55.00
72.80
-
Early Down Succ
54.5%
56.8%
-
Succ Rate
48.2%
52.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
45.9%
31.3%
-
Yards Per Play
5.43
5.52
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.4%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.48
30.26
-
Run Ratio
42.0%
42.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.00
0.00
-
Game Control
1.42
-1.42
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.80
38.40
-
Succ Pass Plays
46.4%
52.6%
-
Sack Rate
6.4%
5.2%
-
Int Rate
2.7%
1.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
21.6%
16.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
35.8%
32.5%
-
NYPP
6.34
7.03
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.00
23.90
-
RB YPR
3.96
3.52
-
Stuff Rate
19.3%
23.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
55.7%
44.8%
-
Big Rush Yards
39.7%
42.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.39
4.12
Game
-
All Snaps
63.80
62.30
-
Early Down Succ
54.8%
49.9%
-
Succ Rate
50.5%
49.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
37.1%
35.2%
-
Yards Per Play
5.48
5.91
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.87
28.15
-
Run Ratio
43.9%
38.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.00
0.00
-
Game Control
-3.31
3.31
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@IND |
28 – 16 W |
7.55 |
57.7% / 48.8% |
11.5% / 7.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
9.27 / 5.44 |
66.7% / 60.0% |
14.8% / 13.3% |
5.19 / 3.77 |
53 / 71 |
69.0% / 60.0% |
62.3% / 53.5% |
51.0% / 9.9% |
7.19 / 4.73 |
1.9% / 1.4% |
50.9% / 42.3% |
32.70 / 23.18 |
2 |
TEN |
30 – 33 L |
5.49 |
41.2% / 53.5% |
8.8% / 7.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
9.41 / 7.44 |
55.6% / 52.5% |
22.2% / 22.5% |
4.28 / 5.30 |
52 / 83 |
51.3% / 57.6% |
46.2% / 53.0% |
58.6% / 31.3% |
7.63 / 6.41 |
0.0% / 1.2% |
34.6% / 48.2% |
29.75 / 23.92 |
3 |
@MIN |
17 – 30 L |
-2.14 |
55.9% / 69.2% |
5.9% / 2.6% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.32 / 8.03 |
55.6% / 47.1% |
11.1% / 23.5% |
5.89 / 4.12 |
52 / 73 |
63.4% / 57.6% |
55.8% / 58.9% |
39.6% / 36.1% |
7.48 / 6.21 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
34.6% / 46.6% |
21.78 / 24.63 |
4 |
@SF |
28 – 21 W |
1.52 |
30.8% / 46.5% |
11.5% / 4.7% |
0.0% / 2.4% |
4.96 / 7.30 |
46.4% / 62.1% |
28.6% / 10.3% |
3.75 / 4.93 |
54 / 72 |
43.2% / 62.3% |
38.9% / 52.8% |
38.6% / 32.5% |
4.33 / 6.35 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
51.9% / 40.3% |
34.93 / 21.17 |
5 |
LA |
17 – 26 L |
-1.13 |
51.4% / 55.3% |
5.7% / 2.6% |
6.1% / 2.7% |
7.49 / 9.42 |
56.0% / 44.8% |
12.0% / 37.9% |
3.68 / 4.07 |
60 / 67 |
58.3% / 56.4% |
53.3% / 50.7% |
44.8% / 57.8% |
5.90 / 7.10 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
41.7% / 43.3% |
23.58 / 25.42 |
6 |
@PIT |
20 – 23 L |
-3.85 |
45.9% / 43.9% |
13.5% / 2.4% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
4.46 / 5.51 |
63.0% / 53.3% |
25.9% / 23.3% |
5.33 / 3.97 |
64 / 71 |
62.0% / 51.8% |
53.1% / 47.9% |
48.4% / 22.7% |
4.83 / 4.86 |
1.6% / 1.4% |
42.2% / 42.3% |
27.14 / 31.23 |
7 |
NO |
10 – 13 L |
1.81 |
29.6% / 48.6% |
18.5% / 5.4% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
4.78 / 5.68 |
35.7% / 41.9% |
28.6% / 25.8% |
3.21 / 3.03 |
55 / 68 |
38.5% / 50.9% |
32.7% / 45.6% |
58.4% / 26.6% |
3.98 / 4.47 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
50.9% / 45.6% |
24.18 / 30.36 |
8 |
JAX |
31 – 7 W |
14.52 |
51.9% / 52.7% |
11.1% / 1.8% |
0.0% / 1.9% |
5.93 / 4.13 |
44.0% / 47.4% |
32.0% / 10.5% |
2.76 / 4.32 |
52 / 74 |
53.8% / 57.1% |
48.1% / 51.4% |
36.0% / 4.4% |
4.40 / 4.18 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
48.1% / 25.7% |
34.11 / 22.09 |
10 |
@GB |
0 – 17 L |
-3.45 |
34.9% / 47.4% |
7.0% / 2.6% |
5.0% / 2.7% |
3.09 / 7.55 |
62.5% / 59.4% |
12.5% / 15.6% |
4.69 / 3.31 |
59 / 70 |
42.9% / 55.6% |
42.4% / 52.9% |
21.2% / 46.0% |
3.53 / 5.61 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
27.1% / 45.7% |
29.20 / 20.22 |
11 |
ARZ |
13 – 23 L |
-6.14 |
43.3% / 58.7% |
13.3% / 4.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.00 / 6.91 |
57.9% / 51.5% |
26.3% / 30.3% |
4.53 / 2.88 |
49 / 79 |
61.1% / 58.1% |
49.0% / 55.7% |
52.2% / 30.3% |
5.43 / 5.23 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
38.8% / 41.8% |
0.00 / 0.00 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
LAC |
16 – 20 L |
-1.99 |
40.9% / 55.1% |
4.5% / 4.1% |
0.0% / 2.1% |
6.05 / 6.82 |
70.4% / 41.4% |
18.5% / 37.9% |
4.67 / 3.10 |
49 / 78 |
63.2% / 43.9% |
57.1% / 50.0% |
23.4% / 24.1% |
5.29 / 5.44 |
2.0% / 1.3% |
55.1% / 37.2% |
25.78 / 30.00 |
2 |
NYG |
30 – 29 W |
-2.22 |
53.2% / 44.4% |
2.1% / 11.1% |
2.2% / 0.0% |
6.81 / 6.33 |
63.6% / 46.4% |
18.2% / 28.6% |
3.95 / 5.82 |
69 / 64 |
61.1% / 50.0% |
56.5% / 45.3% |
32.4% / 45.6% |
5.90 / 6.11 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
31.9% / 43.8% |
20.91 / 30.09 |
3 |
@BUF |
21 – 43 L |
-13.76 |
42.3% / 63.6% |
3.8% / 0.0% |
8.0% / 0.0% |
9.00 / 8.16 |
41.7% / 51.5% |
29.2% / 24.2% |
3.21 / 3.70 |
50 / 77 |
47.2% / 59.0% |
42.0% / 58.4% |
46.0% / 28.3% |
6.22 / 6.25 |
2.0% / 0.0% |
48.0% / 42.9% |
27.00 / 40.75 |
4 |
@ATL |
34 – 30 W |
-3.18 |
52.9% / 51.2% |
2.9% / 2.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.53 / 6.40 |
53.6% / 39.3% |
21.4% / 21.4% |
4.36 / 3.54 |
62 / 71 |
56.0% / 41.8% |
53.2% / 46.5% |
46.4% / 30.4% |
6.65 / 5.27 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
45.2% / 39.4% |
27.89 / 25.10 |
5 |
NO |
22 – 33 L |
-3.77 |
41.9% / 40.6% |
4.7% / 6.3% |
4.9% / 3.3% |
5.63 / 8.47 |
51.5% / 30.4% |
18.2% / 21.7% |
3.97 / 4.26 |
76 / 55 |
51.8% / 36.6% |
46.1% / 36.4% |
40.9% / 60.7% |
4.91 / 6.71 |
0.0% / 1.8% |
43.4% / 41.8% |
27.67 / 32.85 |
6 |
KC |
13 – 31 L |
-4.72 |
38.5% / 54.0% |
0.0% / 6.0% |
2.6% / 4.3% |
4.67 / 7.80 |
63.2% / 46.4% |
10.5% / 21.4% |
4.95 / 3.89 |
58 / 78 |
45.5% / 49.1% |
46.6% / 51.3% |
23.6% / 40.7% |
4.76 / 6.40 |
1.7% / 1.3% |
32.8% / 35.9% |
23.92 / 34.55 |
7 |
@GB |
24 – 10 W |
-7.74 |
48.8% / 55.3% |
9.8% / 7.9% |
2.7% / 0.0% |
5.73 / 6.50 |
62.1% / 26.7% |
10.3% / 26.7% |
6.72 / 3.80 |
70 / 53 |
62.3% / 47.4% |
54.3% / 47.2% |
37.6% / 29.9% |
6.14 / 5.74 |
1.4% / 1.9% |
41.4% / 28.3% |
28.20 / 29.89 |
8 |
@DEN |
10 – 17 L |
-2.59 |
43.2% / 46.7% |
11.4% / 13.3% |
5.1% / 0.0% |
5.23 / 6.33 |
66.7% / 47.6% |
12.5% / 14.3% |
4.67 / 3.95 |
68 / 51 |
60.4% / 50.0% |
51.5% / 47.1% |
41.6% / 29.4% |
5.03 / 5.35 |
0.0% / 2.0% |
35.3% / 41.2% |
27.78 / 29.25 |
10 |
TB |
29 – 19 W |
6.90 |
48.6% / 55.9% |
13.5% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 5.9% |
6.11 / 6.47 |
44.1% / 61.5% |
20.6% / 7.7% |
2.76 / 4.08 |
71 / 47 |
44.4% / 60.0% |
46.5% / 57.4% |
28.6% / 33.3% |
4.51 / 5.81 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
47.9% / 27.7% |
32.22 / 33.50 |
11 |
@CAR |
27 – 21 W |
-0.07 |
52.0% / 53.6% |
12.0% / 3.6% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.16 / 6.64 |
50.0% / 57.1% |
27.5% / 23.8% |
4.75 / 5.29 |
65 / 49 |
53.2% / 64.9% |
50.8% / 55.1% |
43.4% / 25.3% |
5.68 / 6.06 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
61.5% / 42.9% |
0.00 / 0.00 |