Game Analysis

Lean – Under (47.5) – Seattle (-3) vs WASHINGTON

• Jayden Daniels should be back on the field on Sunday night after missing last week, and he’ll be thrown into the fire immediately versus Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald. Seattle’s defense is conceding just 5.4 yppp (7th) despite only 5 games combined from two best players in the secondary CB Devon Witherspoon and S Julian Love.
• Witherspoon should suit up this week, but Love suffered a setback with his hamstring injury and will likely miss this game. The two are worth 0.8 points each by our numbers. I think the Seahawks have a strong case for best defense in the NFL whenever they get back to full strength.
• Seattle’s defense is allowing a league-low -0.26 EPA/rush, and they will shut down Washington’s ground game with a 44% rush success rate (10th).
• Commanders LT Laremy Tunsil ranks 11th in pass blocking efficiency, but he could miss this game.
• Washington WR Terry McLaurin has a 62% success rate, but he is out, and his backup, Chris Moore, has a 47% success rate. We saw the value McLaurin brings to the offense last week with the toe tap touchdown and catch on the sideline in the 3rd quarter.
• Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald’s disguises thrive against predictable spread looks, and Kliff Kingsbury’s air raid DNA will get neutralized into a dink-and-dunk slog that Seattle’s coverage and pass rush were built to suffocate. The Commanders experience a notable 0.10 EPA per play drop when facing creeper pressures (non-traditional joins the rush while a defensive lineman drops back into coverage).
• Seattle’s offense has just a 43% early-down dropback rate (31st) despite gaining just 3.7 yards per early down rush (29th). Sam Darnold should pass more particularly on 2nd down, but I expect them to be fine with a defensive slog.
• Our model favors the Commanders by 0.7 points with a predicted total of 45.0 points, but I used Seattle in my spread pool based on an 80-24-2 ATS off a bye week angle (I would have used Wash at +3.5).