Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **Under (49.5) – SAN FRANCISCO (-6.5) vs Seattle

• San Francisco RT Colton McKivitz has surrendered 23 pressures (8th-most) and he will struggle versus edge defender Boye Mafe, who ranks 6th in pass-rushing efficiency.
• Seahawks’ cornerback Tariq Woolen is allowing only 0.53 yards per cover snap (4th) and he will limit WR Jauan Jennings, who is averaging 0.58 EPA/target (7th).
• Seattle’s offense will have starting right tackle Abraham Lucas suiting up for his first game of the season but I do not think it will immediately fix the pass protection for Geno Smith, who has been pressured on 40% of dropbacks (5th-most). Lucas will be rusty and going against 49ers edge rusher Nick Bosa, who has 49 pressures (2nd).
• San Francisco interior defender Maliek Collins has 27 pressures (10th) and he will dominate Seahawks’ RG Anthony Bradford, who ranks 55th in pass-blocking efficiency out of 57 qualifying guards.
• Smith’s checkdowns will be covered when the right side of his offensive line collapses. Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker is averaging 1.44 yards per route run (5th) but the 49ers are conceding -0.07 EPA/target to opposing running backs (10th).
• Seattle’s yppp versus Cover 4 is just 59% compared to other coverages and Smith will not be able to go downfield against San Francisco’s defense with the 2nd-highest Cover 4 rate.
• Our model favors the 49ers by 9.9 points, with a predicted total of 44.4 points. I’m passing the Niners because Seattle applies to a very good 198-91-6 ATS bounce-back situation.

The Under is a 2-Star Best Bet at 48.5 points or more and 1-Star down to 47.5 points (Strong Opinion at 47).