Game Analysis

Lean – Seattle (+9.5/+10) over SAN FRANCISCO

Player Prop Play: Brandon Aiyuk (SF) Under 3.5 Receptions to (-120)

· The 49ers were favored by 3 at Seattle in week 15 and we are seeing the spread 6.5 points higher due to a number of changes since then. First, the switch in homefield with San Francisco playing host this time around. The 49ers also have Deebo Samuel available after he was out with a sprained MCL and ankle during the last game in Seattle.

· Another differing factor from the Thursday night contest in week 15 is it’s expected to be raining for the majority of Saturday’s game. Our model suggests this type of muggy rain, on grass, is worth 3.6 points to scoring based on games with similar wet conditions going back to 2000.

· The most important difference from week 15 though is we now have a larger sample of Brock Purdy at the helm for the 49ers. Purdy only had 72 career dropbacks the last time these teams met but now we’ve seen San Francisco average 33.5 points per game in Purdy’s six starts.

· Purdy has a 50% success rate which is only slightly below Jimmy Garoppolo’s 51% success rate.

· The Seahawks have two main threats on the defensive line. Edge defender Uchenna Nwosu ranks 11th in pass rushing efficiency and interior defender Quinton Jefferson has 42 pressures (14th). However, I believe the pair will be shut down by a Niners’ offensive line that ranks 5th in pass blocking efficiency and conceded only 6 pressures in two games versus Seattle’s defense this year.

· Seattle’s strength on defense is the secondary where CB Tariq Woolen ranks 9th in coverage grade by PFF and S Quandre Diggs ranks 8th in coverage grade. Ryan Neal led all safeties in coverage grade by PFF since taking over as a starter in week 5 but missed three games in a row to close the season dealing with a knee injury. Neal has been at practice and should be back in uniform for the Seahawks defense on Saturday.

· Woolen, Diggs, and Neal will limit any deep routes from WR Brandon Aiyuk and the best place to attack Seattle’s defense has been at the linebackers, which is Kyle Shanahan’s specialty. The Seahawks are surrendering a league-high 6.9 yards per target to running backs and allowing 8.8 yards per target to opposing tight ends (31st).

· George Kittle is leading all tight ends with 0.46 EPA/target and Christian McCaffrey leads all running backs with 1.83 yards per route run. Kittle and McCaffrey combined for 231 yards from scrimmage against Seattle’s defense in week 15.

· However, the Seahawks have been forced into a change since week 15 with starting linebacker Jordyn Brooks out with a torn ACL. Brooks ranks 45th in coverage grade by PFF out of 46 qualifying linebackers and ranked 42nd in coverage grade out of 50 LBs in 2021. Seattle’s pass defense might be better without Brooks as the Rams had only a 29% dropback success rate last week in the first game without Brooks.

· Brooks did lead all linebackers through 17 weeks with 42 run stops and the Seahawks will likely be a much worse rush defense without the linebacker on the field, as the Rams gained 5.2 yards per carry last week. The 49ers have a 43% rush success rate this season (9th) and I could see Shanahan relentlessly running the ball if the conditions are rainy.

· San Francisco’s defense has been the polar opposite to Seattle’s defense because the 49ers linebackers lead the way. Fred Warner ranks 10th in coverage grade by PFF and LB Dre Greenlaw ranks 5th in coverage grade. San Francisco is allowing a league-low 4.4 yards per target to opposing running backs and just 6.6 yards per target to TEs (5th).

· The 49ers defense is conceding just a 36% rush success rate (2nd) and they should control the Seahawks boom or bust ground game that has a league-worst 36% success rate but ranks a decent 20th in EPA/rush.

· Seattle running back Kenneth Walker had over 100 yards in each of the last three weeks of the season but only 47 rushing yards against the 49ers the week before his recent run of success.

· San Francisco edge defenders Charles Omenihu and Samson Ebukam rank 21st and 23rd in pass rushing efficiency but Nick Bosa is truly the menace to worry about for the 49ers up front.

· Bosa’s 89 pressures this season rank 2nd in the NFL and he alternates sides of the offense he lines up on. Bosa had three sacks in two games versus the Seahawks this year and lined up across from the right tackle the majority of downs. Seattle RT Abraham Lucas ranks around league average in pass blocking efficiency.

· The Seahawks offense led the league in snap rate by rookies at 23% in 2022 which includes both starting tackles Charles Cross and Lucas.

· Geno Smith’s pressured dropback rate was 39% against San Francisco’s defense this season. Smith had a 33% pressure rate in all other games.

· I do think Geno can capitalize on some of the weak points on the 49ers defense by avoiding cornerback Charvarius Ward, who ranks 8th in coverage grade by PFF.

· Seattle wide receiver DK Metcalf is averaging 1.81 yards per route run (24th) and he will mostly line up across from Deommodore Lenoir, who ranks 63rd in coverage grade by PFF out of 63 qualifying CBs.

· Jimmie Ward is surrendering 1.36 yards per cover snap in the slot, which ranks 15th out of 18 qualifying nickelbacks and he will struggle versus Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett, who has a 63% success rate (4th).

· Our model makes San Francisco a 6.8-point favorite with a predicted total of 41.2 points.

· The 49ers enter the playoffs on a 10-game win streak, but that is not historically a good thing. Playoff favorites of more than 3 points that have won 9 or more consecutive games are 0-17 ATS and 7-10 straight up since the 1987-88 playoffs and 5 of the last 6 have lost the game straight up with 4 of those 5 upsets being favorites of more than 7 points.