Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – Seattle (+2.5/+3) over SAN FRANCISCO

The 49ers are going to be without two starting cornerbacks and potentially a third if Josh Norman cannot come back from the lung contusion that he suffered last Sunday night. The depleted secondary had no answers for Packers’ star WR Davante Adams, who ended with a 56.3% target rate (4th-highest in a game since 2010). Seattle’s offense already consolidates their targets more than any team in the league as WRs Tyler Lockett and DK Mecalf are the intended receivers on 58% of Russell Wilson’s passes.

Seattle’s backup tackles Jamarco Jones and Jake Curhan allowed a 16% pressure rate last week filling in for starting RT Brandon Shell (out with an ankle injury). Niners’ edge defender Arik Armstead ranks 14th in pass rushing efficiency and he will dominate if Shell isn’t able to return this week.

Seahawks’ CB Tre Flowers surrendered seven receptions for 78 yards and four first downs last week and I expect Jimmy Garoppolo to attack the cornerback just as Kirk Cousins did last week. Flowers will struggle to contain Deebo Samuel, who is averaging 3.55 yards per route run (2nd) for the Niners.

Our model makes San Francisco a 2.2-point favorite with a predicted total of 50.1 points. There is no line value, but Seattle applies to a 91-33-4 ATS bounce-back situation based on last week’s poor performance against the Vikings (lost by 13 as a small favorite).

Team Stats
Game Log

Seahawks
49ers

SEA

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 31.3 41.0
Succ Pass Plays 51.6% 57.2%
Sack Rate 8.7% 5.6%
Int Rate 0.0% 0.0%
Deep Pass Rate 22.8% 11.1%
Big Pass Yards 52.5% 22.4%
NYPP 9.5 7.5

Rush

Rush Plays 21.0 34.7
RB YPR 5.5 4.2
Stuff Rate 16.0% 19.8%
Succ Rush Plays 59.3% 53.2%
Big Rush Yards 42.5% 31.2%
Yards Per Rush 5.1 4.4

Game

All Snaps 52.3 75.7
Early Down Succ 61.2% 58.4%
Succ Rate 54.7% 55.1%
Big Yards Rate 49.7% 25.8%
Yards Per Play 7.8 6.1
Fumble Lost Rate 0.6% 0.9%
Time Per Play (sec) 27.2 31.2
Run Ratio 40.1% 45.7%
Starting Field Pos 0.0 0.0
Game Control 3.6 -3.6

Points 25.0 26.3

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@IND	28 – 16 W	7.6	57.7% / 48.8%	11.5% / 7.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.8 / 6.1	66.7% / 60.0%	14.8% / 13.3%	5.2 / 3.8	53 / 71	69.0% / 60.0%	62.3% / 53.5%	51.0% / 9.9%	7.4 / 5.1	1.9% / 1.4%	50.9% / 42.3%	0.0 / 0.0
2	TEN	30 – 33 L	5.5	41.2% / 53.5%	8.8% / 7.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	10.1 / 8.1	55.6% / 52.5%	22.2% / 22.5%	4.3 / 5.3	52 / 83	51.3% / 57.6%	46.2% / 53.0%	58.6% / 31.3%	8.1 / 6.7	0.0% / 1.2%	34.6% / 48.2%	0.0 / 0.0
3	@MIN	17 – 30 L	-2.1	55.9% / 69.2%	5.9% / 2.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.8 / 8.3	55.6% / 47.1%	11.1% / 23.5%	5.9 / 4.1	52 / 73	63.4% / 57.6%	55.8% / 58.9%	39.6% / 36.1%	7.8 / 6.3	0.0% / 0.0%	34.6% / 46.6%	0.0 / 0.0

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@DET	41 – 33 W	9.1	55.6% / 41.7%	3.7% / 5.0%	0.0% / 1.8%	11.8 / 5.6	37.0% / 50.0%	33.3% / 20.8%	3.4 / 4.8	54 / 84	50.0% / 50.0%	46.3% / 44.0%	53.6% / 49.3%	7.6 / 5.4	3.7% / 0.0%	50.0% / 28.6%	0.0 / 0.0
2	@PHI	17 – 11 W	2.4	56.7% / 38.5%	0.0% / 7.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.3 / 7.3	44.7% / 57.1%	26.3% / 28.6%	3.1 / 5.4	68 / 54	50.9% / 52.5%	50.0% / 48.1%	23.2% / 52.6%	4.5 / 6.3	0.0% / 0.0%	55.9% / 51.9%	0.0 / 0.0
3	GB	28 – 30 L	-6.6	45.5% / 47.1%	9.1% / 2.9%	2.5% / 0.0%	5.8 / 7.7	52.4% / 52.0%	28.6% / 8.0%	3.0 / 4.0	65 / 59	48.0% / 51.1%	47.7% / 49.2%	17.2% / 41.0%	4.9 / 6.1	1.5% / 0.0%	32.3% / 42.4%	0.0 / 0.0

Seattle Seahawks @

San Francisco 49ers

Sun, Oct 3

1:05 PM Pacific

Game Analysis