Seattle Seahawks @

San Francisco 49ers

Mon, Nov 11
5:15 PM Pacific
Rotation: 273
Odds: San Francisco 49ers -6, Total: 47

Game Analysis

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SAN FRANCISCO (-6) vs Seattle

The unbeaten 49ers have had extra time to prepare for this game, having played the Thursday game in week 9, and Monday night home teams are 15-8 ATS over the years if they played on Thursday the previous week as long as the visiting team is not off a bye. As good as the Niners have been they have gotten a bit better offensively since acquiring WR Emmanuel Sanders, who has gained 2.14 yards per route run and found the endzone three times in 2 games with the 49ers. Sanders adds a new dimension to this passing attack alongside George Kittle (questionable), who leads all tight ends with 2.96 yards per route run. Jimmy Garoppolo should have time in the pocket to find his top two targets downfield on Monday night. Quinton Jefferson ranks 9th in pass rushing efficiency, but the interior defender has been held out of the previous two games with an oblique injury and his status is up in the air. Jadeveon Clowney has recorded a 27% pass rush win rate ranking 5th among edge defenders but he will be limited in this matchup. Right tackle Mike McGlinchey should be back in uniform this week along with left tackle Joe Staley, who allowed 0 pressures in 55 pass blocking snaps before breaking his left fibula in week 2. San Francisco’s offense will get a huge boost in the ground game with the return of both starting tackles and fullback Kyle Juszczyk because Kyle Shanahan’s rushing scheme features two back formations. The 49ers used a fullback on more than two-thirds of their runs in first 4 games and ranked 8th in rushing efficiency. Subsequently, the Niners have had two guys in the backfield for just 24 carries in the last 4 games and ranked 29th in rushing efficiency without Juszczyk and the starting tackles.

Nick Bosa leads the NFL in pass rushing efficiency but the defensive rookie of the year favorite will be contained by left tackle Duane Brown, who is one of 15 qualifying tackles to concede 1 sack or fewer. Although, right tackle Germain Ifedi ranks 2nd-worst in pass blocking efficiency and will be probably exploited off the opposite edge by Dee Ford. San Francisco’s ability to get after the quarterback is a major factor for their top-ranked pass defense while the secondary is led by Richard Sherman, who is surrendering only 0.61 yards per cover snap (2nd). However, Sherman can only take away half the field and the Seahawks just added another outside receiving threat Josh Gordon to play opposite rookie DK Metcalf, who has 8 receptions with 20+ air yards (5th). The 49ers lost key linebacker Kwon Alexander, who also dealt with injuries last year but made the Pro Bowl in 2017 and was conceding only 0.73 yards per cover snap this season (9th). Despite the addition on Gordon and the Alexander injury, I still expect Seattle’s offense to rely heavily on the ground game. The Seahawks have the 7th-highest adjusted run play percentage and running back Chris Carson is forcing 0.26 missed tackles per rush (2nd).

We have San Francisco’s offense among the best in the NFL with Emmanuel Sanders, Joe Staley, Mike McGlinchey, and Kyle Juszczyk all in the lineup. The addition of Josh Gordon alongside DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett will be a major factor for Seattle’s offense that already uses 11 personnel at the 5th-highest rate in the league. Our model favors the 49ers by 4.9 points with a predicted total of 47.1 points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Seahawks
  • 49ers
SEA
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 35.0 40.1
  • Succ Pass Plays 53.5% 46.4%
  • Sack Rate 7.8% 4.0%
  • Int Rate 0.3% 2.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 22.8% 16.1%
  • Big Pass Yards 47.3% 38.3%
  • NYPP 7.6 6.8



Rush


  • Rush Plays 30.3 21.8
  • RB YPR 4.0 4.2
  • Stuff Rate 21.9% 22.7%
  • Succ Rush Plays 52.4% 46.1%
  • Big Rush Yards 45.6% 43.9%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.4 4.6




Game

  • All Snaps 65.3 61.9
  • Early Down Succ 56.9% 50.2%
  • Succ Rate 52.9% 47.3%
  • Big Yards Rate 46.5% 39.6%
  • Yards Per Play 6.0 6.1
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.3% 1.5%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.9 28.5
  • Run Ratio 47.0% 36.1%
  • Starting Field Pos 28.8 28.0
  • Game Control 0.2 -0.2
 
  • Points 27.6 25.6
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