Seattle Seahawks @

Pittsburgh Steelers

Sun, Oct 17
5:20 PM Pacific
Rotation: 273
Odds: Pittsburgh Steelers -5, Total: 42.5

Game Analysis

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PITTSBURGH (-5) vs Seattle

Lean – Under (42.5)

Seattle’s offense ranks 12th through five weeks according to our metrics and will fall off a cliff without Russell Wilson. Backup QB Geno Smith is averaging just 5.7 yards per pass play in his career, which pales in comparison to the 8.0 yppp Wilson was averaging this season before he ruptured tendon in the middle finger of his right hand. Smith won’t be able to stretch the field vertically as much for an offense that relies on deep passes. The Seahawks have taken only four snaps from inside of the 10 yard line this year, so scoring from the redzone is not something they’re accustomed to. Seattle’s offense had a first down or TD on 38% of Smith’s snaps last week but it was against soft coverage from the Rams up two scores. Our metrics have Smith 7 points worse than Wilson.

Wide receivers Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool combined for 80% of Pittsburgh’s receiving yards last week with JuJu Smith-Schuster sidelined with a dislocated shoulder. Claypool now has 18 receptions of 25+ yards since entering the NFL, which ranks 6th during that time span. Ben Roethlisberger will feature Claypool and Johnson when lined up across from Seahawks CB Sidney Jones, who is surrendering 3.14 yards per cover snap.

Seattle’s rush defense ranks 5th in the league and the Steelers should use RB Najee Harris as a receiver instead. All-Pro linebacker Bobby Wagner is dealing with a bruised knee and the Seahawks are surrendering 8.3 yards per target to opposing RBs (31st).

Our model favors the Steelers by 4.8 points, with a predicted total of 39.8 points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Seahawks
  • Steelers
SEA
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 31.0 40.6
  • Succ Pass Plays 47.4% 54.4%
  • Sack Rate 8.7% 4.9%
  • Int Rate 1.2% 1.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 22.6% 17.2%
  • Big Pass Yards 49.1% 28.9%
  • NYPP 8.5 7.6



Rush


  • Rush Plays 23.2 32.4
  • RB YPR 4.5 4.3
  • Stuff Rate 17.7% 21.5%
  • Succ Rush Plays 56.0% 53.3%
  • Big Rush Yards 38.9% 33.8%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.6 4.4




Game

  • All Snaps 54.2 73.0
  • Early Down Succ 57.1% 58.6%
  • Succ Rate 51.3% 53.7%
  • Big Yards Rate 46.5% 30.9%
  • Yards Per Play 6.8 6.2
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.4% 0.5%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.1 29.9
  • Run Ratio 42.7% 44.2%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.0 0.0
  • Game Control 2.6 -2.6
 
  • Points 24.0 25.2
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