Game Analysis
1-Star Best Bet – Over (48.5) – Seattle (-6.5) vs PHILADELPHIA
The total for this game opened at 52 points and it has been bet down all week due to weather concerns in Philadelphia. There was a tornado watch earlier on Monday with wind gusts reaching 50 mph and thunderstorms, but it looks like the rain will stop by kickoff. Also, the wind should be below 20 mph. This game would’ve had potentially the worst conditions for scoring of the season had it started at noon, but the weather shouldn’t be a major of an issue tonight according to the current forecasts.
Russell Wilson was nearly perfect last Thursday night going 23 for 28 passing with three drops and one throwaway. Wilson is averaging 7 yards per pass play for the first time since 2015 and he already has more rushing yards (367) than he did last year (342). Philadelphia’s defense is overrated due to the inferior teams they’ve gone up against, as the Eagles have only faced two offenses ranked above average in yards per play (Rams, 49ers) and they got San Francisco without Jimmy Garoppolo. The Seahawks will be the best offense Philadelphia has seen this season by about 4 points according to our metrics.
The Eagles are still banged-up on offense as we won’t see RT Lane Johnson or TE Zach Ertz on Monday night. However, these injuries aren’t any worse than what Philadelphia’s offense has been dealing with all season. Carson Wentz will have Travis Fulgham, Jalen Reagor, and Dallas Goedert available as receiving options to take advantage of a Seattle defense surrendering 7.3 yppp (29th).
Our model favors the Seahawks by 5.6 with a predicted total of 56.1 points and the Over is a 1-Star Best Bet at 49.5 points or less (Strong Opinion Under 50).
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.5
47.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
53.7%
53.0%
-
Sack Rate
8.4%
5.5%
-
Int Rate
2.6%
1.9%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.1%
16.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
39.5%
33.9%
-
NYPP
7.1
7.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.6
25.1
-
RB YPR
4.2
2.9
-
Stuff Rate
17.4%
20.6%
-
Succ Rush Plays
56.5%
47.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
46.0%
36.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.9
3.4
Game
-
All Snaps
64.1
72.1
-
Early Down Succ
57.7%
52.2%
-
Succ Rate
54.4%
51.2%
-
Big Yards Rate
42.6%
37.2%
-
Yards Per Play
6.2
6.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.2
25.7
-
Run Ratio
38.4%
34.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.1
25.8
-
Game Control
1.7
-1.7
Pass
-
Pass Plays
41.9
36.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
41.8%
45.3%
-
Sack Rate
9.6%
9.0%
-
Int Rate
3.8%
0.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.3%
16.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
36.5%
33.2%
-
NYPP
5.0
6.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.1
31.5
-
RB YPR
5.3
3.8
-
Stuff Rate
22.5%
26.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
51.8%
42.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
46.2%
53.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
5.2
4.3
Game
-
All Snaps
66.0
67.7
-
Early Down Succ
47.8%
46.9%
-
Succ Rate
45.5%
44.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
41.9%
41.9%
-
Yards Per Play
5.0
5.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
1.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.6
28.3
-
Run Ratio
36.4%
46.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.6
31.5
-
Game Control
-3.1
3.1
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2020 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@ATL |
38 – 25 W |
8.5 |
57.9% /
50.0% |
7.9% /
3.6% |
0.0% /
1.9% |
7.9 /
7.8 |
55.0% /
47.6% |
15.0% /
23.8% |
4.2 /
3.4 |
58 /
77 |
61.7% /
50.8% |
56.9% /
49.4% |
38.1% /
35.6% |
6.6 /
6.6 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
34.5% /
27.3% |
31.3 /
24.7 |
| 2 |
NE |
35 – 30 W |
0.4 |
70.0% /
57.8% |
6.7% /
2.2% |
3.6% /
2.3% |
9.2 /
8.8 |
66.7% /
36.0% |
10.0% /
28.0% |
5.1 /
2.7 |
60 /
70 |
71.7% /
48.2% |
68.3% /
50.0% |
36.6% /
33.0% |
7.2 /
6.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.0% /
35.7% |
31.4 /
17.6 |
| 3 |
DAL |
38 – 31 W |
4.7 |
50.0% /
47.5% |
9.1% /
3.4% |
0.0% /
3.5% |
6.7 /
7.8 |
30.8% /
42.9% |
23.1% /
14.3% |
4.5 /
2.9 |
70 /
80 |
43.6% /
45.2% |
42.9% /
46.3% |
51.9% /
58.0% |
5.9 /
6.5 |
1.4% /
1.3% |
37.1% /
26.3% |
32.9 /
18.9 |
| 4 |
@MIA |
31 – 23 W |
6.0 |
63.9% /
56.5% |
5.6% /
2.2% |
2.9% /
4.4% |
9.5 /
6.8 |
61.5% /
59.1% |
11.5% /
13.6% |
3.8 /
4.7 |
62 /
68 |
71.4% /
58.2% |
62.9% /
57.4% |
49.4% /
21.4% |
7.1 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
41.9% /
32.4% |
31.6 /
23.2 |
| 5 |
MIN |
27 – 26 W |
-4.3 |
38.9% /
52.4% |
11.1% /
7.1% |
3.1% /
2.6% |
5.3 /
5.9 |
62.5% /
48.8% |
12.5% /
19.5% |
7.8 /
4.9 |
52 /
83 |
51.2% /
51.5% |
46.2% /
50.6% |
43.3% /
32.7% |
6.0 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
1.2% |
30.8% /
49.4% |
35.8 /
19.8 |
| 7 |
@ARI |
34 – 37 L |
7.2 |
57.7% /
54.2% |
3.8% /
0.0% |
6.0% /
2.1% |
7.2 /
7.5 |
76.7% /
54.5% |
13.3% /
24.2% |
6.7 /
4.8 |
82 /
81 |
70.1% /
60.3% |
64.6% /
54.3% |
39.2% /
44.5% |
7.0 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
1.2% |
36.6% /
40.7% |
28.0 /
29.6 |
| 8 |
SF |
37 – 27 W |
8.9 |
53.8% /
52.3% |
5.1% /
6.8% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
6.4 /
6.8 |
46.4% /
40.9% |
25.0% /
13.6% |
3.6 /
2.4 |
67 /
66 |
50.0% /
48.0% |
50.7% /
48.5% |
37.1% /
33.9% |
5.2 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
41.8% /
33.3% |
33.5 /
24.2 |
| 9 |
@BUF |
34 – 44 L |
-13.1 |
45.7% /
55.6% |
10.9% /
15.6% |
4.9% /
0.0% |
7.9 /
8.6 |
58.8% /
36.8% |
35.3% /
26.3% |
3.4 /
1.8 |
63 /
64 |
54.2% /
54.0% |
49.2% /
50.0% |
52.5% /
54.5% |
6.7 /
6.6 |
3.2% /
0.0% |
27.0% /
29.7% |
24.1 /
44.8 |
| 10 |
@LA |
16 – 23 L |
-5.6 |
44.2% /
52.5% |
14.0% /
7.5% |
5.4% /
0.0% |
5.1 /
7.1 |
45.5% /
55.2% |
9.1% /
20.7% |
5.1 /
3.7 |
65 /
69 |
43.1% /
52.9% |
44.6% /
53.6% |
40.5% /
35.2% |
5.1 /
5.6 |
1.5% /
1.4% |
33.8% /
42.0% |
28.1 /
29.0 |
| 11 |
ARI |
28 – 21 W |
4.6 |
54.8% /
51.1% |
9.7% /
6.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.9 /
5.7 |
61.3% /
55.6% |
19.4% /
22.2% |
5.3 /
3.2 |
62 /
63 |
59.6% /
52.9% |
58.1% /
52.4% |
37.2% /
22.6% |
5.6 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.0% /
28.6% |
24.5 /
26.3 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2020 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@WAS |
17 – 27 L |
5.1 |
32.0% /
41.2% |
16.0% /
8.8% |
4.8% /
0.0% |
4.2 /
4.7 |
35.3% /
36.1% |
23.5% /
30.6% |
3.4 /
2.2 |
67 /
70 |
33.3% /
42.9% |
32.8% /
38.6% |
61.1% /
25.1% |
4.0 /
3.4 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
25.4% /
51.4% |
24.7 /
40.0 |
| 2 |
LA |
19 – 37 L |
-9.4 |
46.5% /
67.9% |
0.0% /
3.6% |
4.7% /
0.0% |
5.6 /
9.2 |
73.1% /
59.0% |
0.0% /
12.8% |
4.7 /
4.9 |
69 /
67 |
57.1% /
65.4% |
56.5% /
62.7% |
17.1% /
52.8% |
5.3 /
6.7 |
1.4% /
1.5% |
37.7% /
58.2% |
29.1 /
31.6 |
| 3 |
CIN |
23 – 23 T |
0.2 |
38.0% /
42.3% |
6.0% /
15.4% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
4.1 /
4.9 |
55.6% /
38.9% |
16.7% /
33.3% |
4.9 /
2.7 |
86 /
70 |
44.6% /
46.4% |
45.3% /
41.4% |
36.5% /
25.7% |
4.4 /
4.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
41.9% /
25.7% |
24.6 /
30.2 |
| 4 |
@SF |
25 – 20 W |
0.5 |
45.2% /
52.0% |
9.7% /
10.0% |
3.6% /
4.4% |
5.6 /
6.0 |
42.9% /
40.0% |
32.1% /
20.0% |
3.3 /
5.8 |
59 /
70 |
45.5% /
50.9% |
44.1% /
48.6% |
51.7% /
36.5% |
4.5 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
47.5% /
28.6% |
28.0 /
23.3 |
| 5 |
@PIT |
29 – 38 L |
-4.9 |
48.8% /
45.7% |
12.2% /
2.9% |
5.6% /
0.0% |
5.9 /
6.6 |
31.3% /
31.3% |
37.5% /
31.3% |
5.9 /
4.3 |
57 /
67 |
35.7% /
30.0% |
43.9% /
38.8% |
48.2% /
40.9% |
5.9 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
28.1% /
47.8% |
23.5 /
35.0 |
| 6 |
BAL |
28 – 30 L |
-12.5 |
32.6% /
40.0% |
13.0% /
10.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
3.7 /
5.8 |
66.7% /
48.6% |
22.2% /
24.3% |
10.8 /
4.9 |
64 /
67 |
46.9% /
49.0% |
42.2% /
44.8% |
57.7% /
47.9% |
5.7 /
5.3 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
28.1% /
55.2% |
23.9 /
38.1 |
| 7 |
NYG |
22 – 21 W |
-0.0 |
50.0% /
39.4% |
6.5% /
9.1% |
2.3% /
3.3% |
7.5 /
5.0 |
42.3% /
45.5% |
15.4% /
22.7% |
3.7 /
7.3 |
72 /
55 |
51.8% /
45.5% |
47.2% /
41.8% |
36.9% /
61.8% |
6.1 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
3.6% |
36.1% /
40.0% |
32.4 /
24.8 |
| 8 |
DAL |
23 – 9 W |
2.1 |
37.5% /
36.4% |
12.5% /
9.1% |
7.1% /
0.0% |
3.2 /
3.0 |
50.0% /
54.3% |
19.2% /
34.3% |
4.6 /
3.8 |
58 /
79 |
47.8% /
50.0% |
43.1% /
44.3% |
35.6% /
20.4% |
3.8 /
3.4 |
3.4% /
2.5% |
44.8% /
44.3% |
33.6 /
33.2 |
| 10 |
@NYG |
17 – 27 L |
-7.4 |
47.5% /
48.4% |
7.5% /
9.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.8 /
7.5 |
60.9% /
50.0% |
30.4% /
22.2% |
6.8 /
4.2 |
63 /
67 |
62.7% /
55.1% |
52.4% /
49.3% |
37.6% /
51.8% |
5.5 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
36.5% /
53.7% |
16.4 /
31.5 |
| 11 |
@CLE |
17 – 22 L |
-4.5 |
40.0% /
40.0% |
12.5% /
12.0% |
5.7% /
0.0% |
5.2 /
7.5 |
60.0% /
25.0% |
28.0% /
37.5% |
4.2 /
3.4 |
65 /
65 |
52.9% /
34.0% |
47.7% /
30.8% |
36.8% /
55.9% |
4.8 /
5.0 |
1.5% /
1.5% |
38.5% /
61.5% |
29.4 /
27.1 |
Seattle Seahawks
@ 
Philadelphia Eagles