Seattle Seahawks @ Philadelphia Eagles Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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PHILADELPHIA (-1) vs Seattle

Carson Wentz’s number one wide receiver last week was Nelson Agholor with Alshon Jeffrey and DeSean Jackson sidelined. Agoholor is one of the worst wide receivers in the league, averaging only 0.89 yards per route run, and Alshon Jeffrey’s potential return will be worth monitoring on Sunday. The Eagles target tight ends on 35.8% of passes and Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert combined for 17 targets last week with the injuries at wide receiver. The Seahawks have been below average defending tight ends but could improve with the addition of safety Quandre Diggs. George Kittle was out in Seattle’s first game with Diggs in uniform but the defense did hold 49ers’ backup tight end Ross Dwelley to just 24 yards on 7 targets. Edge defender Jadeveon Clowney has a 26% pass rush win rate (7th) and he should have his way with backup tackle Andre Dillard with Pro Bowl starter Lane Johnson likely unavailable due to a concussion.

On the other side of the ball, Philadelphia’s defense should also find success rushing the passer on the outside. Right tackle Germain Ifedi ranks 4th-worst in pass blocking efficiency and will struggle to contain Brandon Graham, whose 51 pressures rank 9th among edge defenders. Russell Wilson will need to get the ball out quickly to Tyler Lockett, who is in a favorable matchup. Lockett is gaining 2.48 yards per slot route run (2nd) and will line up across from nickelback Avonte Maddox, who is surrendering 1.56 yards per cover snap on the inside. The Seahawks have a 46.4% run play rate (5th) and rank 7th in rushing efficiency with Chris Carson ranking 3rd among running backs (min 100 attempts) with 0.25 avoided tackles per rush and he will likely be a major part of the game-plan this week.

The Eagles are having a mediocre season more due to injuries than a down-tick in performance by Carson Wentz. Philadelphia’s playoff chances would likely drop below 20% with a loss on Sunday so the effort will be there. Our model favors the Eagles by 1.2 with a predicted total of 45.5.

Team Stats
Game Log

Seahawks
Eagles

SEA

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 35.4 41.2
Succ Pass Plays 53.6% 45.5%
Sack Rate 8.3% 4.6%
Int Rate 0.5% 2.0%
Deep Pass Rate 21.7% 16.1%
Big Pass Yards 45.3% 37.0%
NYPP 7.4 6.5

Rush

Rush Plays 30.7 22.3
RB YPR 4.0 4.1
Stuff Rate 21.5% 23.0%
Succ Rush Plays 53.1% 44.8%
Big Rush Yards 43.9% 42.0%
Yards Per Rush 4.4 4.4

Game

All Snaps 66.1 63.5
Early Down Succ 57.2% 48.8%
Succ Rate 53.2% 46.2%
Big Yards Rate 44.7% 38.2%
Yards Per Play 5.9 5.9
Fumble Lost Rate 1.6% 1.6%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.9 28.3
Run Ratio 47.0% 36.0%
Starting Field Pos 29.7 27.7
Game Control 0.0 -0.0

Points 27.5 25.4

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	CIN	21 – 20 W	-0.8	37.5% / 46.4%	16.7% / 8.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.7 / 7.1	36.0% / 21.4%	28.0% / 35.7%	2.9 / 2.4	49 / 70	40.0% / 42.6%	36.7% / 41.4%	61.4% / 49.9%	4.8 / 6.1	2.0% / 4.3%	51.0% / 20.0%	31.0 / 27.8
2	@PIT	28 – 26 W	0.8	56.4% / 42.9%	10.3% / 2.9%	0.0% / 2.9%	7.0 / 5.1	45.5% / 56.3%	24.2% / 25.0%	4.6 / 5.1	72 / 51	55.4% / 52.5%	51.4% / 47.1%	42.0% / 31.4%	5.9 / 5.1	2.8% / 0.0%	45.8% / 31.4%	25.6 / 34.5
3	NO	27 – 33 L	-10.4	50.0% / 55.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.1 / 6.6	42.3% / 47.8%	26.9% / 26.1%	4.2 / 3.8	76 / 50	52.6% / 57.9%	47.4% / 52.0%	56.7% / 21.1%	6.8 / 5.3	1.3% / 2.0%	34.2% / 46.0%	23.5 / 28.9
4	@ARI	27 – 10 W	11.8	56.3% / 44.4%	12.5% / 11.1%	0.0% / 3.1%	7.0 / 5.7	63.0% / 56.5%	25.9% / 13.0%	4.3 / 5.0	59 / 59	63.3% / 53.1%	59.3% / 49.2%	27.4% / 37.1%	5.8 / 5.4	0.0% / 0.0%	45.8% / 39.0%	27.6 / 21.9
5	LA	30 – 29 W	-1.2	62.5% / 46.9%	4.2% / 0.0%	0.0% / 2.0%	10.9 / 8.1	53.5% / 38.9%	16.3% / 16.7%	3.9 / 4.6	67 / 67	63.0% / 48.2%	56.7% / 44.8%	45.0% / 52.6%	6.4 / 7.1	1.5% / 1.5%	64.2% / 26.9%	28.7 / 26.2
6	@CLE	32 – 28 W	-3.3	61.1% / 45.9%	8.3% / 0.0%	0.0% / 8.1%	7.9 / 6.7	52.6% / 50.0%	15.8% / 20.8%	4.5 / 6.5	74 / 61	61.0% / 48.0%	56.8% / 47.5%	46.9% / 48.5%	6.1 / 6.7	1.4% / 1.6%	51.4% / 39.3%	31.8 / 36.0
7	BAL	16 – 30 L	-2.9	38.1% / 28.6%	2.4% / 4.8%	2.4% / 0.0%	5.7 / 6.7	57.7% / 42.9%	26.9% / 14.3%	4.1 / 5.7	68 / 56	41.2% / 37.5%	45.6% / 37.5%	49.0% / 62.1%	5.1 / 6.1	1.5% / 0.0%	38.2% / 62.5%	25.2 / 23.9
8	@ATL	27 – 20 W	11.4	59.1% / 59.3%	9.1% / 3.7%	0.0% / 1.9%	7.8 / 8.2	66.7% / 47.1%	15.2% / 29.4%	4.6 / 4.1	55 / 71	72.7% / 61.0%	63.6% / 56.3%	44.7% / 28.7%	5.9 / 7.2	0.0% / 2.8%	60.0% / 23.9%	35.1 / 21.8
9	TB	40 – 34 W	-3.4	60.9% / 47.8%	6.5% / 4.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.5 / 6.9	54.5% / 53.8%	18.2% / 23.1%	6.6 / 3.8	68 / 72	63.3% / 50.9%	58.8% / 50.0%	45.5% / 25.4%	7.2 / 5.8	1.5% / 1.4%	32.4% / 36.1%	31.0 / 31.3
10	@SF	27 – 24 W	-1.9	53.8% / 37.3%	12.8% / 9.8%	2.9% / 2.2%	4.8 / 4.2	58.8% / 33.3%	17.6% / 25.9%	4.3 / 3.2	73 / 78	59.6% / 36.7%	56.2% / 35.9%	28.6% / 25.2%	4.6 / 3.9	4.1% / 2.6%	46.6% / 34.6%	37.0 / 25.0

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	WAS	32 – 27 W	-4.0	55.0% / 47.8%	2.5% / 2.2%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.8 / 8.0	45.2% / 30.8%	22.6% / 23.1%	4.0 / 2.2	71 / 59	47.1% / 44.2%	50.7% / 44.1%	42.0% / 40.2%	6.1 / 6.7	0.0% / 0.0%	43.7% / 22.0%	31.4 / 23.5
2	@ATL	20 – 24 L	-4.4	43.1% / 50.0%	5.9% / 2.3%	4.2% / 7.0%	4.6 / 7.0	33.3% / 47.1%	19.0% / 23.5%	2.3 / 3.4	72 / 61	35.3% / 53.1%	40.3% / 49.2%	15.0% / 46.6%	4.0 / 6.0	1.4% / 0.0%	29.2% / 27.9%	38.5 / 23.4
3	DET	24 – 27 L	-4.8	43.6% / 40.6%	7.7% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.3 / 6.3	46.7% / 35.7%	10.0% / 39.3%	4.2 / 3.1	69 / 60	44.4% / 38.6%	44.9% / 38.3%	54.4% / 43.2%	5.4 / 4.8	2.9% / 0.0%	43.5% / 46.7%	25.6 / 38.9
4	@GB	34 – 27 W	0.2	55.6% / 48.1%	0.0% / 1.9%	0.0% / 1.9%	5.9 / 7.7	69.7% / 55.0%	6.1% / 30.0%	5.3 / 3.9	60 / 74	67.3% / 50.8%	63.3% / 50.0%	31.3% / 39.5%	5.6 / 6.6	0.0% / 1.4%	55.0% / 27.0%	31.9 / 21.0
5	NYJ	31 – 6 W	16.1	43.3% / 25.0%	3.3% / 27.8%	0.0% / 7.7%	6.0 / 1.7	34.5% / 42.1%	34.5% / 26.3%	2.9 / 3.5	59 / 55	42.9% / 35.0%	39.0% / 30.9%	44.2% / 25.0%	4.5 / 2.3	1.7% / 1.8%	49.2% / 34.5%	35.2 / 27.1
6	@MIN	20 – 38 L	-10.8	53.5% / 63.3%	4.7% / 3.3%	4.9% / 3.4%	6.8 / 10.8	59.1% / 37.1%	13.6% / 34.3%	4.9 / 3.5	65 / 65	62.0% / 54.7%	55.4% / 49.2%	53.0% / 52.3%	6.2 / 6.9	1.5% / 1.5%	33.8% / 53.8%	26.2 / 33.3
7	@DAL	10 – 37 L	-15.2	44.8% / 60.0%	10.3% / 10.0%	3.8% / 3.7%	5.8 / 7.1	42.9% / 44.4%	21.4% / 16.7%	4.1 / 5.3	57 / 66	45.7% / 49.0%	43.9% / 51.5%	47.0% / 39.6%	5.0 / 6.1	5.3% / 0.0%	49.1% / 54.5%	18.8 / 41.7
8	@BUF	31 – 13 W	5.2	48.1% / 31.6%	11.1% / 10.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.7 / 4.1	48.8% / 50.0%	29.3% / 35.0%	5.3 / 4.9	68 / 58	50.0% / 39.0%	48.5% / 37.9%	57.7% / 44.3%	5.5 / 4.4	1.5% / 1.7%	60.3% / 34.5%	36.4 / 29.4
9	CHI	22 – 14 W	7.7	51.2% / 25.0%	9.3% / 12.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.3 / 4.3	51.4% / 50.0%	14.3% / 33.3%	4.2 / 3.4	78 / 42	53.4% / 40.6%	51.3% / 35.7%	20.9% / 61.0%	4.8 / 3.9	0.0% / 2.4%	44.9% / 42.9%	26.9 / 28.9
11	NE	10 – 17 L	-0.8	37.8% / 38.8%	11.1% / 2.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	3.9 / 4.6	57.1% / 36.4%	23.8% / 22.7%	3.9 / 3.4	66 / 71	51.0% / 40.7%	43.9% / 38.0%	42.4% / 21.5%	3.9 / 4.2	1.5% / 0.0%	31.8% / 31.0%	17.2 / 31.0

Seattle Seahawks @

Philadelphia Eagles

Sun, Nov 24

5:20 PM Pacific

Game Analysis