Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – NY JETS (+1) over Seattle

• New York’s offensive line ranks 4th in pass blocking efficiency but the Jets will likely be without starting LT Tyron Smith, who is allowing a 6.0% pressure rate.
• Backup LT Olumuyiwa Fashanu is surrendering an 8.2% pressure rate and New York’s coaching staff will need to scheme around the rookie to protect Aaron Rodgers as Seattle’s defense has a 37% pressure rate (6th).
• Jets RB Breece Hall could be sidelined as well but his targets have been inefficient – averaging -0.02 EPA/play – and New York’s offense could be better off ignoring the screen game.
• Seahawks C Connor Williams ranked 8th in pass-blocking efficiency before he unexpectedly retired, and Geno Smith could feel the effects of the absence on Seattle’s interior offensive line on Sunday. Jets interior defender Quinnen Williams has 38 pressures (4th).
• The Jets are coming off their bye week and struggling teams (teams with a straight up and spread win percentage of less than 0.300 after 4 or more game) that lost the game prior to their bye are 72-27 ATS in the game after their off week. The Jets have had an opportunity to stop the bleeding and regain some enthusiasm and they are likely to play well coming off their bye week.
• Our model favors the Jets by 1.9 points, with a predicted total of 45.2 points, and the situation of the Jets off a bye is favorable.

The NY Jets are a Strong Opinion at pick or underdog.