Game Analysis

Lean – NEW ENGLAND (+3.5) over Seattle

• New England’s pass rush had concerns coming into the season after trading away edge defender Matthew Judon and with interior defender Christian Barmore being diagnosed with blood clots. The Patriots defense had just a 22.9% pressure rate in the first game without Bill Belichick (28th) but edge rusher Keion White came away with 2.5 sacks.
• White will have a chance to add to his sack total this week as Seattle was already without starting RT Abraham Lucas before swing tackle George Fant went down in week 1, which forced third string RT Stone Forsythe into the game. Forsythe surrendered a 10% pressure rate, which is not good.
• New Seahawks offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb couldn’t trust his pass protection last week, so he relied on the ground game. RB Kenneth Walker had 20 carries for 102 yards against the Broncos. Walker had 8 forced missed tackles (2nd) and he has a favorable matchup this week against a Patriots defense surrendering a 53.8% rush success rate (30th).
• New England’s offense had just a 39.1% pass play rate (31st) in the win over Cincinnati. More than half of RB Rhamondre Stevenson’s runs came with 8+ defenders in the box and he was still able to average 5.3 yards per rush versus those stacked boxes.
• The Seahawks have a much better rush defense than the Bengals and Stevenson will be limited on Sunday. Mike Macdonald’s Baltimore defenses were good against the run and Seattle’s defense allowed only a 25.0% rush success rate in debut with his new team.
• The Patriots surrendered a 44.8% pressure rate in week 1 and the only team to allow a higher pressure rate was Denver’s 44.9% against the Seahawks. We could see Macdonald’s defense have a pressure rate above 40% for the second-straight week versus New England’s offensive line.
• Patriots LT Chukwuma Okorafor surrendered 3 pressures in 6 pass blocking snaps before being bench for Vederian Lowe and the backup tackle will struggle this week versus Seattle edge defender Boye Mafe.
• Mafe had 9 pressures in week 1 (3rd) and it looks like he could be the Seahawks’ version of Jadeveon Clowney, who has a career year with the Seahawks new coach. Clowney benefited tremendously from Mike MacDonald’s scheme last year with 71 pressures in Baltimore, which was almost double the three previous seasons’ average of only 37 pressures per year. Mafe ranked 25th in pass rushing efficiency last season and could improve drastically if week 1 is any indication.
• New England rookie RG Layden Robinson surrendered 5 pressures in week 1 (2nd-most) and he will struggle against Leonard Williams, who led interior defenders with 6 pressures last week.
• Jacoby Brissett will not have much time in the pocket, and he doesn’t have any go-to WR to win early as every New England pass catcher had fewer than 35 yards receiving last week.
• Our model favors the Seahawks by just 2.7 points with a predicted total of 39.7.