Game Analysis
Seattle (-1.5) vs MINNESOTA
Lean – Under 55.5
Russell Wilson has a league-leading 4 touchdowns on passes with at least 20 air yards this season. Tyler Lockett is averaging 4.48 yards per route run and should find space behind CB Mackensie Alexander, who is surrendering a reception every 6.3 cover snaps, ranks which ranks 69th out of 72 qualifying cornerbacks. However, Wilson might not have much time in the pocket as RT Brandon Shell is banged-up with an ankle injury and will struggle to contain edge defender Danielle Hunter (6th in pass rushing efficiency).
The Vikings have the best rush defense by our metrics, and I don’t think Chris Carson will be effective on the ground. That’s not necessarily bad, as it may force Seattle to throw more.
These teams met last October and the game came down to a 4th & Goal DK Metcalf touchdown with 15 seconds remaining. I expect a similar coin flip finish this Sunday.
Our model favors the Seahawks by 0.6 with a predicted total of 52.4 points.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
30.0
42.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
49.4%
51.1%
-
Sack Rate
10.2%
7.1%
-
Int Rate
0.0%
0.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
24.9%
14.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
58.8%
15.3%
-
NYPP
9.9
7.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
22.5
35.0
-
RB YPR
5.0
4.2
-
Stuff Rate
18.5%
17.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
61.1%
56.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
44.4%
29.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.7
4.5
Game
-
All Snaps
52.5
77.0
-
Early Down Succ
60.2%
58.8%
-
Succ Rate
54.2%
53.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
54.8%
20.6%
-
Yards Per Play
7.8
5.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
1.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.9
32.1
-
Run Ratio
42.8%
45.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.0
0.0
-
Game Control
6.5
-6.5
Pass
-
Pass Plays
43.0
35.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.5%
51.6%
-
Sack Rate
4.3%
11.7%
-
Int Rate
0.0%
2.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
9.8%
17.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
31.1%
46.1%
-
NYPP
7.1
9.2
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.5
28.5
-
RB YPR
4.4
4.4
-
Stuff Rate
39.4%
22.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
44.1%
59.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
56.3%
30.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.8
4.5
Game
-
All Snaps
67.5
64.0
-
Early Down Succ
49.5%
63.5%
-
Succ Rate
46.5%
55.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
40.5%
42.5%
-
Yards Per Play
6.4
7.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
0.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.1
31.3
-
Run Ratio
37.2%
44.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.0
0.0
-
Game Control
0.1
-0.1
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@IND |
28 – 16 W |
7.6 |
57.7% /
48.8% |
11.5% /
7.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.8 /
6.1 |
66.7% /
60.0% |
14.8% /
13.3% |
5.2 /
3.8 |
53 /
71 |
69.0% /
60.0% |
62.3% /
53.5% |
51.0% /
9.9% |
7.4 /
5.1 |
1.9% /
1.4% |
50.9% /
42.3% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
| 2 |
TEN |
30 – 33 L |
5.5 |
41.2% /
53.5% |
8.8% /
7.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
10.1 /
8.1 |
55.6% /
52.5% |
22.2% /
22.5% |
4.3 /
5.3 |
52 /
83 |
51.3% /
57.6% |
46.2% /
53.0% |
58.6% /
31.3% |
8.1 /
6.7 |
0.0% /
1.2% |
34.6% /
48.2% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@CIN |
24 – 27 L |
-3.4 |
43.4% /
46.9% |
5.7% /
15.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.8 /
8.2 |
36.4% /
52.8% |
45.5% /
25.0% |
3.0 /
4.1 |
75 /
68 |
41.1% /
60.4% |
41.3% /
50.0% |
37.3% /
40.0% |
5.7 /
6.0 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
29.3% /
52.9% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
| 2 |
@ARZ |
33 – 34 L |
3.7 |
51.5% /
56.4% |
3.0% /
7.7% |
0.0% /
5.6% |
7.4 /
10.3 |
51.9% /
66.7% |
33.3% /
19.0% |
6.6 /
4.9 |
60 /
60 |
58.0% /
66.7% |
51.7% /
60.0% |
43.7% /
44.9% |
7.0 /
8.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
45.0% /
35.0% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
Seattle Seahawks
@ 
Minnesota Vikings