Game Analysis

Lean – Seattle (+3) over LA RAMS

• Matthew Stafford’s 20 touchdown passes versus the blitz are already more than all but two quarterbacks in a full season in the last decade. The Seahawks are not going to fall into the trap, as Seattle’s defense has only a 24% blitz rate (30th).
• Los Angeles had a 45% rate of 13 personnel last week, averaging 6.7 yppl against the 49ers, but the Seahawks should have an answer. Seattle head coach Mike Macdonald is only of the only in the NFL to get away with staying in nickel when opponents put more tight ends on the field, and as a result, the Seahawks rank 6th relatively versus heavy personnel passing.
• Rams’ wide receivers Puka Nacua and Davante Adams have gotten 52% of the targets this season, but they will be limited as Seattle’s defense is allowing only a 46% success rate to opposing wide receivers (4th).
• Los Angeles is conceding -0.16 EPA/rush (3rd), and they will contain the Seahawks’ ground game on Sunday.
• Seattle forces defenses into base personnel by using 3WR sets on only 36% of snaps. The Seahawks have faced base defense on a league-high 49% of offensive snaps, and they will look to pass when the Rams put a third linebacker on the field. Los Angeles is surrendering 31% more yppp versus heavy personnel compared to light personnel (31st).
• Sam Darnold’s main concern will be at center after starter Jalen Sundell exited Sunday’s game with a knee injury and is expected to miss several weeks. Sundell was replaced by Olu Oluwatimi, and it led to some snapping issues for the Seahawks’ offense.
• Our model favors the Rams by 3.1 points, but the matchups significantly favor the Seahawks. The model predicted total is 49.0 points but his game applies to a 177-109-5 Under situation.