Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Under (42) – Seattle (-7.5) vs LA RAMS

· It is safe to say the Rams offense in its current state is one of the worst we’ve seen in recent history, perhaps rivaling only the late season 2018 Cardinals with a 21-year-old Josh Rosen under center after top WR Christian Kirk broke his foot.

· WR Cooper Kupp gained 2.52 yards per route run in the slot (4th) before a high ankle sprain against the Cardinals likely ended his season. WR Allen Robinson was the only other Los Angeles receiver with an EPA/target above 0 but he is out with a stress fracture in his foot. The Rams receiver room currently consists of Van Jefferson, Ben Skowronek and Tutu Atwell.

· Matthew Stafford is out, and backup quarterback John Wolford is sidelined. Bryce Perkins is averaging only 2.8 yppp this season.

· Los Angeles ranks last in pass blocking efficiency. The Rams have surrendered 142 pressures in 2022 which is only two fewer than they surrendered all of last season.

· Los Angeles interior defender Aaron Donald got a high ankle sprain last week and will not be in uniform on Sunday.  Donald has five sacks, 28 hurries, 10 tackles for a loss, 11 quarterback hits and a forced fumble this season. The All-Pro is worth 1.5 points by our numbers.

· However, I believe Seattle’s mindset will keep this Rams defense afloat in this game. Pete Carroll’s defense allowed an embarrassing 40 points last week and I think he’ll want to be more conservative on both sides of the ball on Sunday. Carroll will want to take the ball out of Geno Smith’s hands after the quarterback threw an interception and lost a fumble versus the Raiders.

· Los Angeles is conceding only a 34.2% rush success rate (3rd) which will get worse without Donald, but I think the Rams should hold up against a Seahawks ground game that has just a 35.1% success rate (31st).

· Los Angeles also has the talent in the secondary to contain Seattle’s wide receivers. Rams CB Jalen Ramsey ranks 11th in coverage grade by PFF and he will likely shadow DK Metcalf, who has a 56% success rate (19th).

· Tyler Lockett has a 61% success rate (7th) but he will be limited on the inside by Rams nickelback Troy Hill, who is allowing only 0.80 yards per cover snap in the slot.

· Pete Carroll’s Seahawks are 19-3-1 ATS after consecutive losses and they’ve gone under in 15 of those 23 games, so I expect a focused defensive performance from Seattle in this game

· Our model favors the Seahawks by 9.6 points, with a predicted total of 37.3 points.

The Under is a 1-Star Best Bet at 42 points or more and a Strong Opinion down to 41 points.