Game Analysis

Lean – SEATTLE (pick) over Jacksonville

• Jacksonville’s yards per attempt against zone coverage is a league-low 69% of their yards per attempt against man, and they rank 26th relatively versus a standard pass rush compared to the blitz. Trevor Lawrence will struggle on Sunday as Seattle’s defense has an 84% zone coverage rate (5th-highest) and a 79% standard pass rush rate (3rd-highest).
• Devon Witherspoon, Julian Love and Riq Woolen are all doubtful for Seattle’s defense. They are worth nearly 2 points combined.
• The Jaguars’ offense will be without starting TE Brenton Strange, who has a 67% success rate (2nd).
• Jacksonville will also likely be missing C Robert Hainsey, who ranks 3rd in pass blocking efficiency. Backup C Jonah Monheim will struggle as Seattle has the best interior trio in the NFL with Byron Murphy, Leonard Williams, and Jarran Reed averaging 7.4 pressures per game.
• Seahawks’ offensive coordinator Klink Kubiak’s scheme exploits the voids that naturally exist when the safeties split, as his crossers and high-lows are specifically designed for those spacing rules. Jacksonville’s defense has a 69% middle-field open coverage rate (2nd-highest) and Sam Darnold ranks 9th relatively versus middle-field open compared to middle-field close coverages.
• Jacksonville may be 4-1 but the Jaguars have been outgained 5.4 yards per play to 5.6 yppl. The Jaguars have been more lucky (+8 turnover margin) than good and our model rates Seattle as the better team.
• Teams that enter a game with a turnover margin of +1.5 or more per game (after 5 games or more) are just 108-165-8 ATS and the Jaguars are now overrated.
• Our model favors Seattle by 0.4 points, with a predicted total of 46.5 points, and the Seahawks apply to a 79-33-3 ATS situation that is based on losing as a favorite of 3 points or more.