Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Seattle (+5) over DETROIT

Lean – Over (48)

· Pete Carroll mentioned that Seattle would go more up-tempo last week and the Seahawks snapped the ball with 15+ seconds on the play clock on almost half of the plays against the Falcons. They had 69 snaps on offense after averaging just 48 snaps in the first two games. The faster pace worked to some extent as Seattle’s offense gained 6.1 yppl in week 3.

· Tyler Lockett has 20 targets deemed open because of separation which ranks second in the NFL. Lockett is gaining 2.51 yards per route run in the slot (6th) and Geno Smith will be looking his way on Sunday. Lions nickelback Mike Hughes is allowing 1.78 yards per route run in the slot (4th-worst) so I expect Lockett to have a big day.

· The Seahawks are averaging -3.0 expected points per game due to penalties to start this season which is unsustainably high.

· Detroit’s offense has been humming but they will look different in this game than the first three weeks due to a shortage of weapons for Jared Goff. Running back D’Andre Swift (shoulder/ankle) is not likely to suit up versus Seattle. Swift is averaging 8.6 yards per rush and backup RB Jamaal Williams is gaining 3.9 yards per rush.

· Lions’ wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is banged-up with a minor ankle sprain. St. Brown is gaining 2.48 yards per route run (7th) while Detroit’s other wide receivers and tight ends are averaging only 1.12 yards per route run.

· Our model has the Lions by just 2.0 points, with a predicted total of 49.5 points, and Seattle applies to a 110-45-4 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation. Also, the Seahawks are 18-3-1 ATS after consecutive losses under head coach Pete Carroll, including a 51-29 win over Detroit last year after a couple of losses.

Seattle is a 1-Star Best Bet at +4.5 or more (Strong Opinion at +4).