Game Analysis
DETROIT (-3) vs Seattle
The Lions defensive front will potentially add two excellent players this week, as they traded for former All-Pro defensive tackle Damon Harrison on Wednesday and are hopeful that Ezekiel Ansah is ready to return from injury. Harrison has ranked top 2 in run stop percentage among interior defensive linemen every year since 2013. It is unknown how many snaps Harrison will get in his first game with the Lions, but I certainly expect their 29th-rated rush defense to improve moving forward and they have a favorable matchup this week. The Seahawks run the ball more than any team in the league despite grading just 27th in our metrics and I don’t expect them to find running room when Harrison is on the field. Ezekiel Ansah is practicing after being out since week 1 with a shoulder injury. Ansah ranked 15th in pass rushing efficiency in 2017 and, combined with the addition of Harrison, Matt Patricia’s defense will likely improve by more than a point moving forward.
The Lions offense seems to have found a running game when they finally featured Kerryon Johnson before their bye. Johnson played 59% of snaps (season-high) and nearly doubled LeGarrette Blount’s rushing attempts. Johnson made the most of his opportunity by rushing for 158 yards. Johnson is hard to tackle – averaging 3.42 yards per rush after contact (9th) – and his 43% success rate ranks 12th among qualifying running backs. Our numbers currently grade Detroit’s ground game 14th, but they have the potential to improve as the season progresses with more Johnson and less Blount.
Matt Stafford only threw 4 incompletions last week and 3 of them were batted passes or dropped. Stafford is up to 7th in our quarterback metric and will now face a Seahawks defense surrendering 0.4 yards per pass play more since the Earl Thomas injury. Detroit’s receivers will certainly be the best Seattle’s secondary has faced since losing Thomas considering the Rams lost Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp in the opening half of that game (although Jared Goff still put up 9.5 yards per pass play on the Seahawks). I expect Stafford’s efficiency to continue, especially with a more balanced offense.
Our model favors the Lions by 3.4 points with a predicted total of 48.2, which isn’t enough value to play this game (unless Detroit drops to -2.5).
Pass
-
Pass Plays
28.7
34.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
46.7%
50.4%
-
Sack Rate
10.5%
7.5%
-
Int Rate
2.2%
4.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
20.3%
15.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
50.0%
32.5%
-
NYPP
7.5
6.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
30.5
26.5
-
RB YPR
4.2
4.4
-
Stuff Rate
21.1%
19.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
40.6%
47.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
35.8%
49.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.2
4.8
Game
-
All Snaps
59.2
60.5
-
Early Down Succ
43.6%
49.5%
-
Succ Rate
43.8%
47.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
45.1%
40.9%
-
Yards Per Play
5.6
5.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
1.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.2
30.3
-
Run Ratio
51.6%
43.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.6
27.8
-
Game Control
3.0
-3.0
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.0
30.7
-
Succ Pass Plays
52.9%
56.7%
-
Sack Rate
6.2%
11.2%
-
Int Rate
2.1%
1.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
14.8%
20.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
43.4%
36.4%
-
NYPP
7.8
7.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.5
27.8
-
RB YPR
4.6
5.3
-
Stuff Rate
21.0%
18.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
42.7%
48.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
43.1%
49.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.6
5.1
Game
-
All Snaps
61.5
58.5
-
Early Down Succ
49.4%
54.3%
-
Succ Rate
47.9%
52.2%
-
Big Yards Rate
46.0%
42.7%
-
Yards Per Play
6.2
6.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.2%
1.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.8
29.6
-
Run Ratio
43.1%
46.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.5
27.8
-
Game Control
1.9
-1.9
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@DEN |
24 – 27 L |
-1.9 |
35.9% /
57.5% |
15.4% /
2.5% |
6.1% /
7.7% |
6.2 /
8.1 |
18.8% /
50.0% |
25.0% /
21.9% |
4.0 /
4.6 |
55 /
72 |
34.9% /
58.3% |
30.9% /
54.2% |
63.7% /
53.2% |
5.6 /
6.5 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
29.1% /
44.4% |
27.4 /
26.6 |
| 2 |
@CHI |
17 – 24 L |
-7.4 |
43.6% /
52.8% |
15.4% /
5.6% |
3.0% /
5.9% |
5.2 /
5.1 |
45.5% /
48.3% |
13.6% /
13.8% |
3.4 /
3.0 |
61 /
65 |
44.9% /
55.1% |
44.3% /
50.8% |
23.2% /
6.3% |
4.5 /
4.2 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
36.1% /
44.6% |
24.5 /
33.6 |
| 3 |
DAL |
24 – 13 W |
8.3 |
42.9% /
28.2% |
7.1% /
12.8% |
0.0% /
5.9% |
6.5 /
3.5 |
30.0% /
52.6% |
30.0% /
15.8% |
2.9 /
8.7 |
68 /
58 |
34.0% /
39.5% |
35.3% /
36.2% |
34.8% /
51.2% |
4.4 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
58.8% /
32.8% |
27.2 /
25.9 |
| 4 |
@ARI |
20 – 17 W |
2.0 |
48.1% /
42.9% |
7.4% /
3.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.9 /
6.1 |
50.0% /
39.3% |
23.5% /
35.7% |
5.0 /
3.3 |
61 /
56 |
58.0% /
40.9% |
49.2% /
41.1% |
35.6% /
54.0% |
5.4 /
4.7 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
55.7% /
50.0% |
35.5 /
26.4 |
| 5 |
LA |
31 – 33 L |
1.0 |
60.0% /
83.3% |
13.3% /
4.2% |
0.0% /
8.7% |
12.2 /
13.0 |
53.1% /
40.6% |
18.8% /
15.6% |
5.9 /
4.9 |
47 /
56 |
44.2% /
56.9% |
55.3% /
58.9% |
66.5% /
49.1% |
7.9 /
8.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
68.1% /
57.1% |
26.6 /
33.7 |
| 6 |
@OAK |
27 – 3 W |
15.9 |
50.0% /
37.8% |
4.2% /
16.2% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
8.9 /
2.9 |
46.2% /
52.6% |
15.4% /
15.8% |
4.0 /
4.2 |
63 /
56 |
45.7% /
46.5% |
47.6% /
42.9% |
46.9% /
31.9% |
5.9 /
3.3 |
0.0% /
3.6% |
61.9% /
33.9% |
42.2 /
20.5 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
NYJ |
17 – 48 L |
-11.9 |
44.2% /
65.2% |
0.0% /
8.7% |
9.6% /
4.8% |
5.8 /
7.8 |
37.5% /
32.6% |
25.0% /
9.3% |
2.5 /
4.0 |
68 /
66 |
51.0% /
53.8% |
42.6% /
43.9% |
37.9% /
55.1% |
5.0 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
23.5% /
65.2% |
23.0 /
40.7 |
| 2 |
@SF |
27 – 30 L |
-5.3 |
43.6% /
53.1% |
3.6% /
18.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.0 /
4.9 |
44.4% /
44.8% |
5.6% /
24.1% |
5.4 /
6.6 |
73 /
61 |
44.6% /
56.3% |
43.8% /
49.2% |
38.4% /
48.7% |
5.8 /
5.7 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
24.7% /
47.5% |
24.8 /
32.3 |
| 3 |
NE |
26 – 10 W |
8.1 |
61.1% /
42.9% |
2.8% /
7.1% |
2.9% /
3.8% |
7.1 /
4.3 |
45.5% /
57.9% |
21.2% /
21.1% |
4.8 /
4.7 |
69 /
47 |
54.5% /
56.8% |
53.6% /
48.9% |
36.7% /
19.1% |
6.0 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
47.8% /
40.4% |
30.2 /
26.4 |
| 4 |
@DAL |
24 – 26 L |
-1.7 |
54.5% /
50.0% |
9.1% /
10.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.7 /
7.7 |
40.0% /
55.6% |
25.0% /
22.2% |
4.8 /
5.1 |
53 /
66 |
47.6% /
56.9% |
49.1% /
53.0% |
64.1% /
51.6% |
7.2 /
6.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.7% /
54.5% |
23.8 /
21.8 |
| 5 |
GB |
31 – 23 W |
13.9 |
52.9% /
80.6% |
17.6% /
11.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
10.0 /
11.8 |
34.5% /
52.4% |
27.6% /
9.5% |
3.3 /
4.7 |
46 /
57 |
32.6% /
55.6% |
41.3% /
70.2% |
37.7% /
41.2% |
5.8 /
9.2 |
0.0% /
5.3% |
63.0% /
36.8% |
46.1 /
20.5 |
| 7 |
@MIA |
32 – 21 W |
8.1 |
60.9% /
48.6% |
4.3% /
11.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.1 /
6.1 |
54.1% /
47.4% |
21.6% /
26.3% |
6.8 /
5.6 |
60 /
54 |
66.0% /
46.5% |
56.7% /
48.1% |
60.8% /
40.4% |
7.7 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
61.7% /
35.2% |
23.0 /
25.2 |
Seattle Seahawks
@ 
Detroit Lions