Game Analysis
Lean – DALLAS (-4.5) over Seattle
Dallas’ Pro-Bowl offensive tackle Tyron Smith is questionable for this game and his status will be much more impactful than the return of Ezekiel Elliot to the Cowboys’ running game. Dallas is 5-3 averaging 148 rushing yards per game with Smith and Elliot both active and 3-1 averaging 143 rushing yards per game with Smith but not Elliot, illustrating Elliot is likely not as impactful as public perception. However, the Cowboys’ offense could only manage 4.2 yards per play in the three games Smith missed earlier in the season and it could be trouble for them again if he is unable to play.
Seattle’s defensive performance has remained steady since the Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor injuries outside of one game in Jacksonville when Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright were also injured. I’m still making roughly a one-point adjustment for Sherman and Chancellor, but it’s worth noting the Seahawks’ underlying numbers against the Falcons, 49ers, Eagles, and Rams match their defense in the first 10 weeks prior to the injuries.
Seattle tackle Germain Ifedi will have his hands full this week facing DeMarcus Lawrence. Ifedi has allowed 47 pressures this season, ranking 52nd among 55 qualified tackles, and Lawrence is tied for the most pressures from the left side in the league. Of course, if any quarterback can escape pressure it is Russel Wilson and there is an argument that Dallas might be better off if they don’t force him to escape from the pocket.
The line on this game is fair, but Seattle’s defensive collapse last week against the Rams is a concern, especially if Wagner and Wright are both out or hampered if they do play. Road underdogs that allowed 42 points or more the prior week are just 1-41 straight up and 8-34 ATS if visiting a team that has won their previous two or more games. I’ll lean with Dallas.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.4
36.9
-
Succ Pass Plays
44.7%
41.7%
-
Sack Rate
7.1%
6.5%
-
Int Rate
2.5%
2.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
24.8%
22.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
49.6%
35.6%
-
NYPP
6.3
6.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.4
28.5
-
RB YPR
3.1
3.7
-
Stuff Rate
29.2%
24.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
39.4%
42.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
50.7%
38.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.0
3.9
Game
-
All Snaps
64.9
65.4
-
Early Down Succ
44.2%
43.6%
-
Succ Rate
42.2%
41.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
49.9%
41.1%
-
Yards Per Play
5.4
5.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
1.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.5
27.9
-
Run Ratio
40.5%
43.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.0
28.5
-
Game Control
-1.4
1.4
Pass
-
Pass Plays
32.4
38.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
44.0%
49.4%
-
Sack Rate
5.9%
5.6%
-
Int Rate
2.4%
1.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.1%
15.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
34.1%
35.8%
-
NYPP
6.4
6.2
Rush
-
Rush Plays
30.5
26.1
-
RB YPR
4.0
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
21.1%
23.6%
-
Succ Rush Plays
53.2%
45.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
42.1%
43.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.4
4.1
Game
-
All Snaps
62.9
64.4
-
Early Down Succ
51.5%
49.4%
-
Succ Rate
48.9%
47.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
38.5%
40.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.4
5.3
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
1.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.8
27.9
-
Run Ratio
48.5%
40.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.7
25.2
-
Game Control
1.8
-1.8
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@GB |
9 – 17 L |
-2.5 |
40.0% / 50.0% |
10.0% / 8.7% |
0.0% / 2.4% |
4.5 / 6.2 |
38.9% / 35.5% |
50.0% / 19.4% |
5.0 / 2.8 |
48 / 77 |
44.4% / 44.6% |
39.6% / 44.2% |
58.7% / 37.8% |
4.7 / 4.8 |
2.1% / 0.0% |
37.5% / 40.3% |
27.5 / 25.9 |
2 |
SF |
12 – 9 W |
2.0 |
33.3% / 20.7% |
7.1% / 6.9% |
0.0% / 3.7% |
4.3 / 3.1 |
37.2% / 52.6% |
20.9% / 21.1% |
3.1 / 8.4 |
85 / 48 |
37.5% / 38.9% |
35.3% / 33.3% |
23.7% / 49.2% |
3.7 / 5.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
50.6% / 39.6% |
23.9 / 24.5 |
3 |
@TEN |
27 – 33 L |
-4.9 |
50.0% / 51.6% |
2.0% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.3 / 7.3 |
40.9% / 44.4% |
31.8% / 22.2% |
3.1 / 5.4 |
72 / 67 |
51.8% / 54.9% |
47.2% / 47.8% |
38.8% / 44.9% |
6.0 / 6.3 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
30.6% / 53.7% |
23.3 / 29.6 |
4 |
IND |
46 – 18 W |
7.0 |
65.5% / 37.5% |
10.3% / 9.4% |
7.7% / 3.4% |
9.8 / 4.3 |
42.4% / 52.0% |
24.2% / 8.0% |
5.9 / 3.9 |
62 / 57 |
47.8% / 44.2% |
53.2% / 43.9% |
67.7% / 30.0% |
7.7 / 4.2 |
0.0% / 1.8% |
53.2% / 43.9% |
20.2 / 28.3 |
5 |
@LA |
16 – 10 W |
-0.8 |
45.0% / 35.4% |
7.5% / 4.2% |
5.4% / 4.3% |
4.5 / 5.7 |
19.2% / 40.9% |
23.1% / 45.5% |
2.4 / 4.5 |
66 / 70 |
31.3% / 33.3% |
34.8% / 37.1% |
8.7% / 44.3% |
3.7 / 5.4 |
0.0% / 4.3% |
39.4% / 31.4% |
35.2 / 29.2 |
7 |
@NYG |
24 – 7 W |
1.0 |
50.0% / 22.5% |
2.5% / 2.5% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.0 / 3.3 |
50.0% / 41.2% |
21.9% / 17.6% |
3.3 / 2.7 |
72 / 57 |
53.6% / 31.8% |
50.0% / 28.1% |
43.9% / 14.1% |
5.9 / 3.1 |
1.4% / 1.8% |
44.4% / 29.8% |
33.8 / 22.8 |
8 |
HOU |
41 – 38 W |
-1.4 |
51.2% / 45.7% |
4.7% / 14.3% |
2.4% / 10.0% |
10.4 / 10.5 |
17.4% / 50.0% |
39.1% / 17.6% |
1.5 / 4.2 |
66 / 69 |
44.0% / 51.7% |
39.4% / 47.8% |
62.4% / 72.7% |
7.3 / 7.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
34.8% / 49.3% |
27.4 / 22.4 |
9 |
WAS |
14 – 17 L |
-2.3 |
43.5% / 40.5% |
4.3% / 16.2% |
4.5% / 0.0% |
6.3 / 5.2 |
57.1% / 39.1% |
14.3% / 34.8% |
5.3 / 2.2 |
74 / 60 |
51.7% / 42.6% |
48.6% / 40.0% |
48.5% / 51.6% |
5.9 / 4.1 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
37.8% / 38.3% |
30.7 / 27.8 |
10 |
@ARI |
22 – 16 W |
5.5 |
47.2% / 42.9% |
13.9% / 4.1% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.9 / 5.2 |
20.8% / 20.8% |
33.3% / 41.7% |
3.2 / 1.4 |
60 / 73 |
42.2% / 34.5% |
36.7% / 35.6% |
51.0% / 6.9% |
4.8 / 4.0 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
40.0% / 32.9% |
27.1 / 27.7 |
11 |
ATL |
31 – 34 L |
-8.5 |
48.9% / 53.6% |
6.7% / 3.6% |
2.4% / 0.0% |
5.0 / 6.8 |
65.2% / 34.4% |
21.7% / 21.9% |
5.9 / 2.8 |
68 / 60 |
57.4% / 40.5% |
54.4% / 43.3% |
46.7% / 37.7% |
5.3 / 4.7 |
1.5% / 1.7% |
33.8% / 53.3% |
36.4 / 33.0 |
12 |
@SF |
24 – 13 W |
7.2 |
44.1% / 38.1% |
0.0% / 7.1% |
2.9% / 2.6% |
6.7 / 4.7 |
38.7% / 45.8% |
25.8% / 33.3% |
2.9 / 3.5 |
65 / 66 |
44.0% / 42.9% |
41.5% / 40.9% |
48.6% / 43.6% |
4.9 / 4.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
47.7% / 36.4% |
32.2 / 25.4 |
13 |
PHI |
24 – 10 W |
8.3 |
48.5% / 45.8% |
6.1% / 6.3% |
0.0% / 2.2% |
6.3 / 6.8 |
19.2% / 53.8% |
26.9% / 23.1% |
3.9 / 3.8 |
59 / 74 |
35.6% / 48.1% |
35.6% / 48.6% |
39.5% / 51.8% |
5.3 / 5.7 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
44.1% / 35.1% |
20.4 / 25.4 |
14 |
@JAC |
24 – 30 L |
-6.2 |
36.4% / 51.9% |
6.1% / 0.0% |
9.7% / 0.0% |
7.9 / 9.9 |
45.8% / 34.9% |
45.8% / 16.3% |
5.9 / 3.7 |
57 / 70 |
44.7% / 51.0% |
40.4% / 41.4% |
77.8% / 47.4% |
7.0 / 6.1 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
42.1% / 61.4% |
30.0 / 30.6 |
15 |
LA |
7 – 42 L |
-24.8 |
21.6% / 48.0% |
18.9% / 8.0% |
0.0% / 4.3% |
1.9 / 4.3 |
58.8% / 46.5% |
29.4% / 18.6% |
4.6 / 5.7 |
54 / 68 |
32.5% / 51.0% |
33.3% / 47.1% |
81.9% / 44.0% |
2.8 / 5.2 |
3.7% / 0.0% |
31.5% / 63.2% |
23.5 / 47.2 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
NYG |
19 – 3 W |
9.1 |
48.7% / 48.8% |
2.6% / 7.3% |
0.0% / 2.6% |
6.7 / 4.8 |
54.8% / 23.1% |
19.4% / 7.7% |
4.2 / 2.8 |
70 / 54 |
50.9% / 46.2% |
51.4% / 42.6% |
37.0% / 27.8% |
5.6 / 4.3 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
44.3% / 24.1% |
29.4 / 16.0 |
2 |
@DEN |
17 – 42 L |
-11.9 |
42.3% / 64.7% |
3.8% / 5.9% |
4.0% / 3.1% |
4.4 / 5.9 |
28.6% / 52.5% |
42.9% / 17.5% |
2.9 / 4.5 |
66 / 74 |
44.7% / 59.6% |
39.4% / 58.1% |
14.6% / 30.7% |
4.1 / 5.1 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
21.2% / 54.1% |
37.6 / 26.9 |
3 |
@ARI |
28 – 17 W |
-0.5 |
42.1% / 38.9% |
5.3% / 11.1% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
9.2 / 5.2 |
33.3% / 33.3% |
33.3% / 33.3% |
3.7 / 2.3 |
46 / 75 |
42.9% / 35.7% |
37.0% / 37.3% |
62.8% / 51.5% |
6.0 / 4.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
58.7% / 28.0% |
29.4 / 21.6 |
4 |
LA |
30 – 35 L |
2.3 |
35.1% / 48.6% |
5.4% / 2.7% |
2.9% / 0.0% |
6.8 / 6.6 |
55.6% / 65.6% |
14.8% / 21.9% |
7.0 / 5.3 |
64 / 69 |
41.7% / 63.0% |
43.8% / 56.5% |
52.3% / 51.6% |
6.9 / 6.0 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
42.2% / 46.4% |
22.4 / 34.8 |
5 |
GB |
31 – 35 L |
4.2 |
59.5% / 51.5% |
2.7% / 12.1% |
2.8% / 0.0% |
6.6 / 5.5 |
60.0% / 64.0% |
14.3% / 12.0% |
4.7 / 6.4 |
72 / 58 |
57.9% / 58.0% |
59.7% / 56.9% |
28.7% / 43.3% |
5.7 / 5.9 |
2.8% / 1.7% |
48.6% / 43.1% |
25.7 / 22.3 |
7 |
@SF |
40 – 10 W |
20.1 |
51.9% / 39.5% |
0.0% / 11.6% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.7 / 4.3 |
68.9% / 59.1% |
11.1% / 27.3% |
5.9 / 4.7 |
72 / 65 |
66.7% / 48.0% |
62.5% / 46.2% |
57.0% / 40.7% |
7.0 / 4.5 |
0.0% / 4.6% |
62.5% / 33.8% |
34.1 / 23.0 |
8 |
@WAS |
33 – 19 W |
2.5 |
37.5% / 39.5% |
8.3% / 9.3% |
0.0% / 2.6% |
5.8 / 5.5 |
61.5% / 40.0% |
20.5% / 26.7% |
4.3 / 3.3 |
63 / 58 |
57.4% / 40.9% |
52.4% / 39.7% |
24.1% / 50.5% |
4.9 / 4.9 |
1.6% / 3.4% |
61.9% / 25.9% |
39.1 / 29.7 |
9 |
KC |
28 – 17 W |
4.3 |
52.9% / 50.0% |
2.9% / 5.6% |
0.0% / 2.9% |
7.2 / 7.1 |
64.5% / 42.1% |
12.9% / 31.6% |
4.2 / 3.6 |
65 / 55 |
58.5% / 51.2% |
58.5% / 47.3% |
42.4% / 40.6% |
5.8 / 5.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
47.7% / 34.5% |
26.8 / 22.9 |
10 |
@ATL |
7 – 27 L |
-4.8 |
40.5% / 63.3% |
21.6% / 3.3% |
0.0% / 3.4% |
3.4 / 6.8 |
45.5% / 29.4% |
22.7% / 44.1% |
4.9 / 3.9 |
59 / 64 |
42.6% / 44.9% |
42.4% / 45.3% |
55.4% / 46.7% |
3.9 / 5.3 |
3.4% / 0.0% |
37.3% / 53.1% |
33.3 / 29.9 |
11 |
PHI |
9 – 37 L |
-8.3 |
30.6% / 44.4% |
11.1% / 0.0% |
9.4% / 0.0% |
3.1 / 6.2 |
42.9% / 44.4% |
28.6% / 16.7% |
4.0 / 6.1 |
64 / 63 |
42.6% / 51.2% |
35.9% / 44.4% |
28.8% / 52.1% |
3.5 / 6.1 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
43.8% / 57.1% |
28.9 / 27.3 |
12 |
LAC |
6 – 28 L |
-6.7 |
51.7% / 57.6% |
6.9% / 0.0% |
7.4% / 0.0% |
5.8 / 13.2 |
80.0% / 26.3% |
10.0% / 18.4% |
4.0 / 2.2 |
49 / 71 |
65.8% / 41.7% |
63.3% / 40.8% |
15.4% / 53.2% |
5.0 / 7.3 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
40.8% / 53.5% |
23.3 / 20.6 |
13 |
WAS |
38 – 14 W |
8.3 |
34.8% / 46.3% |
4.3% / 9.8% |
0.0% / 5.4% |
4.0 / 5.5 |
52.4% / 42.1% |
16.7% / 26.3% |
4.3 / 2.9 |
65 / 60 |
46.0% / 46.7% |
46.2% / 45.0% |
26.5% / 32.9% |
4.2 / 4.7 |
0.0% / 3.3% |
64.6% / 31.7% |
36.2 / 24.5 |
14 |
@NYG |
30 – 10 W |
2.1 |
50.0% / 56.5% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 4.3% |
11.1 / 5.0 |
50.0% / 55.2% |
17.6% / 20.7% |
3.7 / 3.5 |
64 / 75 |
56.8% / 61.0% |
50.0% / 56.0% |
51.4% / 17.6% |
7.1 / 4.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
53.1% / 38.7% |
25.3 / 24.5 |
15 |
@OAK |
20 – 17 W |
4.6 |
37.9% / 42.1% |
6.9% / 0.0% |
7.4% / 0.0% |
7.0 / 4.5 |
46.9% / 56.5% |
31.3% / 26.1% |
4.0 / 5.3 |
61 / 61 |
46.8% / 43.5% |
42.6% / 47.5% |
42.3% / 30.7% |
5.4 / 4.8 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
52.5% / 37.7% |
24.6 / 28.6 |