Seattle Seahawks @

Dallas Cowboys

Sun, Dec 24
1:25 PM Pacific
Rotation: 127
Odds: Dallas Cowboys -4.5, Total: 47.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – DALLAS (-4.5) over Seattle

Dallas’ Pro-Bowl offensive tackle Tyron Smith is questionable for this game and his status will be much more impactful than the return of Ezekiel Elliot to the Cowboys’ running game. Dallas is 5-3 averaging 148 rushing yards per game with Smith and Elliot both active and 3-1 averaging 143 rushing yards per game with Smith but not Elliot, illustrating Elliot is likely not as impactful as public perception. However, the Cowboys’ offense could only manage 4.2 yards per play in the three games Smith missed earlier in the season and it could be trouble for them again if he is unable to play.

Seattle’s defensive performance has remained steady since the Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor injuries outside of one game in Jacksonville when Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright were also injured. I’m still making roughly a one-point adjustment for Sherman and Chancellor, but it’s worth noting the Seahawks’ underlying numbers against the Falcons, 49ers, Eagles, and Rams match their defense in the first 10 weeks prior to the injuries.

Seattle tackle Germain Ifedi will have his hands full this week facing DeMarcus Lawrence. Ifedi has allowed 47 pressures this season, ranking 52nd among 55 qualified tackles, and Lawrence is tied for the most pressures from the left side in the league. Of course, if any quarterback can escape pressure it is Russel Wilson and there is an argument that Dallas might be better off if they don’t force him to escape from the pocket.

The line on this game is fair, but Seattle’s defensive collapse last week against the Rams is a concern, especially if Wagner and Wright are both out or hampered if they do play. Road underdogs that allowed 42 points or more the prior week are just 1-41 straight up and 8-34 ATS if visiting a team that has won their previous two or more games. I’ll lean with Dallas.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Seahawks
  • Cowboys
SEA
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 38.4 36.9
  • Succ Pass Plays 44.7% 41.7%
  • Sack Rate 7.1% 6.5%
  • Int Rate 2.5% 2.4%
  • Deep Pass Rate 24.8% 22.9%
  • Big Pass Yards 49.6% 35.6%
  • NYPP 6.3 6.0



Rush


  • Rush Plays 26.4 28.5
  • RB YPR 3.1 3.7
  • Stuff Rate 29.2% 24.4%
  • Succ Rush Plays 39.4% 42.3%
  • Big Rush Yards 50.7% 38.7%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.0 3.9




Game

  • All Snaps 64.9 65.4
  • Early Down Succ 44.2% 43.6%
  • Succ Rate 42.2% 41.4%
  • Big Yards Rate 49.9% 41.1%
  • Yards Per Play 5.4 5.0
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.6% 1.1%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.5 27.9
  • Run Ratio 40.5% 43.5%
  • Starting Field Pos 28.0 28.5
  • Game Control -1.4 1.4
 
  • Points 22.9 21.0
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