Game Analysis

BALTIMORE (-6) vs Seattle

· The Ravens are averaging 0.01 EPA/rush (4th) but they will be limited on the ground as Seattle’s defense is allowing only a 33.9% rush success rate (4th).

· Lamar Jackson will have to go to the passing game with low wind speeds and a favorable matchup. Jackson’s yards per attempt versus zone coverage is 35% higher than his yards per attempt against man (7th-largest gap) and the Seahawks have an 85.2% zone coverage rate (3rd-highest).

· Seattle CB Devon Witherspoon conceded only 3.5 yards per target last week and he will contain fellow rookie Zay Flowers, who leads Baltimore’s wide receivers averaging 1.76 yards per route run. TE Mark Andrews should get more targets this week against the Seahawks’ zone defense, as he leads the Ravens with 2.36 yards per route run against zone coverage.

· The Seahawks traded for interior defender Leonard Williams, whose 22 pressures rank 14th. Williams will line up alongside Seattle DT Jarran Reed, who ranks 14th in pass-rushing efficiency. However, Williams and Reed will be limited this week as only 38.8% of Baltimore’s pressures have been on the interior (3rd-lowest).

· Geno Smith has completed a league-high 10 passes with 20+ air yards in the last four weeks but he will have to work more underneath in this game as the Ravens’ defense has allowed the fewest explosive pass plays in the NFL and will likely have starting deep safety Marcus Williams back after he went down with a hamstring injury in their London game.

· Seattle WR Tyler Lockett has a league-high 68% success rate, but he will be limited by CB Marlon Humphrey, who is conceding 0.57 yards per cover snap (6th).

· Baltimore edge defender Jadeveon Clowney ranks 18th in pass-rushing efficiency and he will have a favorable matchup against backup tackles Stone Forsythe and Jason Peters, who are rotating at right tackle with starter Abraham Lucas out.

· Seattle’s offensive line will get back starting guard Phil Haynes to contain interior defender Justin Madubuike, who ranks 9th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Our model favors the Ravens by 5.2 points, with a predicted total of 45.4 points.