Seattle Seahawks @

Atlanta Falcons

Sun, Oct 20
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 453
Odds: Atlanta Falcons -3, Total: 51

Game Analysis

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2-Star Best Bet – **Seattle (+3) over ATLANTA

  • The Falcons closed at -2.5 at home to the Saints (with Derek Carr) in week 4 and the Buccaneers in week 5. I do not think Atlanta is justified in giving more points to Seattle, who we have rated higher than New Orleans (with Carr) and Tampa Bay.
  • The Falcons have only a 28% pressure rate (28th) and Geno Smith will have more time in the pocket than usual to hit wide receiver DK Metcalf, who has a league-high 6 receptions with 20+ air yards.
  • Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba has a favorable matchup on the inside as Atlanta nickelback Dee Alford is surrendering 1.78 yards per cover snap in the slot (2nd-worst).
  • Seattle’s defensive line will likely have Byron Murphy suit up for his first game since week 3 and they added more depth trading for fellow interior defender Roy Robertson-Harris, who has 11 pressures this year.
  • The Seahawks’ defense has a 47% pressure rate (2nd) and Kirk Cousins will be harassed behind an offensive line ranking 25th in pass-blocking efficiency.
  • Seattle CB Riq Woolen has conceded just 2.2 yards per target (2nd) and might be back in uniform this week after missing the game against the 49ers.
  • Our model favors the Falcons by only 0.6 points, with a predicted total of 50.0 points, and the Seahawks apply to a very good 234-115-10 ATS contrary angle based on the differences in spread win percentage of these teams.

Seattle is a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 -115 or better and 1-Star down to +2 points.

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