Game Analysis

ARIZONA (-2.5) vs Seattle

• Seattle’s offense is averaging 188 catchable air yards per game (3rd) and wide receiver DK Metcalf has 13 deep receptions (2nd).
• Metcalf should be open downfield but the intermediate game will be limited to Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who leads the NFL with 721 yards from the slot. Cardinals nickelback Garrett Williams is allowing only 0.72 yards per cover snap in the slot (2nd).
• Seattle RB Kenneth Walker is averaging 1.32 yards per route run (9th) and he has a favorable matchup as Arizona’s defense is surrendering a 53% receiving success rate to opposing running backs (29th).
• Geno Smith is averaging 16% more yards per attempt versus the blitz than a standard pass rush. I expect Smith to use the threes and layups approach against a Cardinals defense with a 40% blitz rate (4th-highest).
• Arizona’s offense starts with the ground game and then they call a 30% play action rate (7th-highest). Kyler Murray has a favorable matchup, as the Seahawks are allowing 36% more yppp versus play action than no play action (31st).
• Seattle interior defender Leonard Williams ranks 3rd in pass-rushing efficiency, and he will wreak havoc across from backup RG Trystan Colon, who surrendered a team-high 4 pressures in Arizona’s loss last week.
• Our model favors the Cardinals by 0.5 points with a predicted total of 45.3.