Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – San Francisco (-3.5 -105) over SEATTLE

Lean – Under (49)

• The 49ers are averaging 6.3 yppl (2nd) but scoring only 25.2 points per game (10th) because they have an untenably low 36% success rate in the red zone (25th). San Francisco’s offense had a league-high 55% success rate in the red zone last year and they are likely to score more touchdowns going forward.
• Seattle’s defense is surrendering 23% more yppp versus motion than when teams don’t motion, and they will struggle as the 49ers have a 71% motion rate (3rd-highest).
• Seahawks CB Tariq Woolen is allowing only 0.29 yards per cover snap (2nd) but he is out and is worth 0.9 points by our numbers.
• The right side of the Seahawks offensive line is a weakness as RG Anthony Bradford has surrendered 3 sacks (2nd-most) and RT Stone Forsythe ranks 52nd out of 53 qualifying tackles in pass blocking efficiency.
• Bradford and Forsythe will line up across from San Francisco’s best two pass rushers. Edge defender Nick Bosa has 21 pressures (8th) and interior defender Maliek Collins ranks 16th in pass rushing efficiency.
• Cover 4 defense tends to contain Geno Smith’s deep passing to wide receiver DK Metcalf and Smith’s yards per pass play versus cover 4 is just 83% of his yppp against every other coverage (26th). The 49ers called the 5th-most cover 4 in the NFL.
• San Francisco nickelback Deommodore Lenoir is conceding 0.74 yards per cover snap in the slot (3rd) and he will limit WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who has a 60% success rate (13th).
• Our model favors the 49ers by 4.0 points, but we have SF by 6 points after factoring in in matchups. The model predicted total is 44.1 points. The matchups favor the Over, which is why the Under is not a play. The true total, which takes into account the model, the matchups and the market, is 47.5 points. So, I’d lean under.

San Francisco is a Strong Opinion at -3.5 -110 odds or better.