Game Analysis

San Francisco (-3) at SEATTLE

· Brock Purdy is averaging 0.195 EPA/play compared to Jimmy Garoppolo’s 0.236 EPA/play. There is a difference between the two quarterbacks, but it might be less than 2 points. Purdy has proven to be better at this point than previous 49ers backups Nick Mullens and CJ Beathard.

· Purdy will not have San Francisco WR Deebo Samuel on the field on Thursday night, but the loss shouldn’t be worth more than a half point. Samuel has just a 47.6% success rate in 2022.

· However, Seahawks cornerback Tariq Woolen ranks 12th in coverage grade by PFF and the rookie will limit Purdy’s other wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk. Purdy will have to find TE George Kittle and RB Christian McCaffrey, which is something he’s comfortable doing from his 4 years in an Iowa State offense that didn’t utilize wide receivers nearly as much as other offensive schemes did.

· McCaffrey is averaging 1.88 yards per route run which leads all running backs and Seattle’s defense is allowing a league-high 7.4 yards per target to RBs.

· Seahawks edge defender Uchenna Nwosu ranks 15th in pass rushing efficiency but he will be shut down by LT Trent Williams, who has allowed only one sack this season.

· Geno Smith has made a living this year targeting his two wide receivers Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. Lockett has a 63% success rate (4th) and Metcalf has a 59% success rate (12th).

· Lockett will line up across from 49ers nickelback Jimmie Ward, who Tom Brady went after last week. Ward saw 18 targets into his coverage, the 2nd-most for any cornerback in the last seven seasons. Ward only allowed 53 yards (2.9 YPT) to the Buccaneers and may be up to the task tonight.

· San Francisco outside cornerback Deommodore Lenoir ranks 8th-worst in coverage grade by PFF and he will struggle versus Metcalf.

· Seattle third round RT Abraham Lucas has hung in there this season ranking 27th in pass blocking efficiency which is solid for a rookie, but his ranking will likely dip after Thursday night against edge rusher Nick Bosa, who leads NFL with 14.5 sacks.

· Our model favors the 49ers by 2.6 points, with a predicted total of 43.2 points.