San Francisco 49ers @

Seattle Seahawks

Sun, Dec 5
5:20 PM Pacific
Rotation: 473
Odds: Seattle Seahawks +3.5, Total: 46

Game Analysis

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2-Star Best Bet – **SEATTLE (+3.5 -115) over San Francisco

The market is high on San Francisco after winning three games in a row, but the 49ers are now without wide receiver Deebo Samuel (groin strain) and All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner (hamstring strain). Samuel had 6 rushes for 66 yards and two touchdowns while breaking three tackles last week and he is averaging 60.3 rushing yards per game during the winning streak. Samuel is averaging 11.7 yards per target this season while San Francisco’s other WRs are averaging 7.6 yards per target, which is a significant difference given that Samuel averages 8.4 targets per game. Samuel is worth as much as 2 points based on this metrics (running and receiving) but we’ve adjusted just one point to be conservative. Jimmy Garoppolo will struggle without Samuel and San Francisco’s ground game will be contained by Seattle’s 4th-rated rush defense.

Russell Wilson is averaging 6.8 yppp (higher than 2020) but he has completed 38% of his passes on 3rd down which is on pace to be the worst by a qualified QB since Mark Brunell in 2004. Wilson has a career 59.1% completion rate on 3rd down, so I don’t expect the feeble performance on 3rd-downs to continue going forward. Wilson has struggled since coming back from his finger surgery and he certainly came back one week too soon based on his poor performance against Green Bay in week 10 (50% completions and just 3.1 yppp) but he’s improved each week since (6.0 yppp in week 11 and 7.1 yppp last week) as his finger heals and he should be pretty close to his old self, although we’ve downgraded him a bit in our model.

Edge defender Nick Bosa ranks 9th in pass rushing efficiency but LT Duane Brown conceded just one pressure last week and Wilson should have time to look downfield. Opposing quarterbacks are averaging 13.8 air yards per attempt when targeting Josh Norman and Wilson will go deep to DK Metcalf, who is averaging 2.03 yards per route run (13th). LB Warner, who is out for the 49ers, has forced 8 incompletions (3rd) and is worth 0.8 points.

Our model favors the Seahawks by 3.6 points, with a predicted total of 48.7 points, and Seattle is much better than their 3-8 record would suggest. The Seahawks have averaged 5.5 yards per play while allowing 5.4 yppl to a slightly tougher than average schedule of teams and they played 3 of those games without Russell Wilson. It’s rare to see the Seahawks on a 3-game losing streak but they are 16-3-1 ATS after consecutive losses under coach Pete Carroll (3-1 ATS this season) and a perfect 3-0 ATS after 3 losses – covering those games by an average of 15.0 points. Seattle is a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 -110 odds or better and 1-Star at +3 -115 odds.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • 49ers
  • Seahawks
SF
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 31.73 33.82
  • Succ Pass Plays 48.4% 42.7%
  • Sack Rate 6.0% 6.5%
  • Int Rate 2.1% 1.4%
  • Deep Pass Rate 15.3% 19.7%
  • Big Pass Yards 41.2% 43.4%
  • NYPP 7.38 6.13



Rush


  • Rush Plays 30.00 25.91
  • RB YPR 4.41 3.81
  • Stuff Rate 25.5% 22.8%
  • Succ Rush Plays 49.1% 46.7%
  • Big Rush Yards 46.2% 45.9%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.35 4.33




Game

  • All Snaps 61.73 59.73
  • Early Down Succ 52.3% 47.5%
  • Succ Rate 48.7% 44.4%
  • Big Yards Rate 43.0% 44.2%
  • Yards Per Play 5.91 5.35
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 0.9%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 30.19 28.96
  • Run Ratio 48.6% 43.4%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control 1.05 -1.05
 
  • Points 25.45 22.27
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