San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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1-Star Best Bet – *SEATTLE (-3 Even) over San Francisco

San Francisco closed as an underdog of 3 points last week in New England and now we’re seeing the same number in Seattle. That is way too much of an overreaction, especially with All-Pro safety Jamal Adams potentially back in the lineup for Seattle. The Seahawks are a bare minimum 3 points better than the Patriots and we think the gap is much higher.

Tyler Lockett had 200 receiving yards and three touchdowns last week and he will have a chance to build on that this week. San Francisco nickelback Jamar Taylor’s two interceptions masked his poor performance last Sunday. The Patriots targeted Taylor on 12 passes and he allowed 8 receptions for 129 yards. Taylor is conceding 1.90 yards per slot cover snap filling in for the injured K’Waun Williams – although there is a chance Williams returns this week. I expect Russell Wilson to bounce-back after throwing three interceptions last Monday night in Arizona.

Kyle Shanahan has done a masterful job designing play to help out his quarterback since the week 5 debacle against Miami. Jimmy Garoppolo used play action on 61.5% of his dropbacks last Sunday, the second-highest rate in a game over the last 5 seasons. No quarterback has had a higher percentage of their passing yards come after the catch than Garoppolo (68%) this season and I do not think it is sustainable. Garoppolo is averaging 9.1 yards per attempt on passes thrown behind the line of scrimmage, which is by far the highest mark over the past three years and is something that is likely to regress downwards. The Seahawks have the 2nd-best rush defense by our numbers so Shanahan will have to continue scheming up easy throws for Garoppolo for the 49ers to be successful in this game but that is unlikely against a divisional opponent that is more familiar with the Niners’ offensive schemes.

Our model favors the Seahawks by 5.5 points with Adams playing and by 4.4 points if Adams is out again (predicted total of 55.2 points). There is value on Seattle and the situation strongly favors the Seahawks. Seattle applies to a 93-35-4 ATS bounce-back situation based on last week’s upset loss and the Niners apply to a 39-101-3 ATS road letdown situation based on last week’s easy win. Seattle is a 1-Star Best Bet at -3 at -110 odds or better.

Team Stats
Game Log

49ers
Seahawks

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 34.7 36.3
Succ Pass Plays 51.8% 37.8%
Sack Rate 7.9% 4.6%
Int Rate 1.2% 1.9%
Deep Pass Rate 14.9% 12.1%
Big Pass Yards 29.3% 30.8%
NYPP 7.1 5.1

Rush

Rush Plays 29.7 26.7
RB YPR 4.7 2.8
Stuff Rate 34.2% 28.1%
Succ Rush Plays 39.5% 46.1%
Big Rush Yards 52.8% 53.5%
Yards Per Rush 4.6 4.3

Game

All Snaps 64.3 63.0
Early Down Succ 47.2% 42.6%
Succ Rate 45.7% 41.5%
Big Yards Rate 40.5% 39.9%
Yards Per Play 5.9 4.8
Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 1.4%
Time Per Play (sec) 31.0 25.5
Run Ratio 46.0% 41.2%
Starting Field Pos 31.9 26.1
Game Control 8.6 -8.6

Points 29.0 15.3

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	ARI	20 – 24 L	2.5	41.7% / 35.7%	8.3% / 4.8%	0.0% / 2.5%	6.8 / 5.3	48.0% / 50.0%	20.0% / 16.7%	4.9 / 5.0	61 / 78	52.1% / 41.0%	44.3% / 42.3%	42.9% / 36.4%	6.0 / 5.2	0.0% / 0.0%	41.0% / 46.2%	32.0 / 24.8
2	@NYJ	31 – 13 W	14.2	53.3% / 39.4%	10.0% / 3.0%	3.7% / 0.0%	5.9 / 5.2	27.6% / 48.3%	48.3% / 27.6%	6.3 / 3.6	59 / 62	38.6% / 48.9%	40.7% / 43.5%	48.7% / 33.2%	6.1 / 4.5	0.0% / 0.0%	49.2% / 46.8%	27.9 / 28.7
3	@NYG	36 – 9 W	9.1	60.5% / 38.2%	5.3% / 5.9%	0.0% / 3.1%	8.6 / 4.9	42.9% / 40.0%	34.3% / 40.0%	2.7 / 4.4	73 / 49	50.8% / 37.8%	52.1% / 38.8%	30.0% / 50.2%	5.8 / 4.7	0.0% / 4.1%	47.9% / 30.6%	35.9 / 24.8

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@ATL	38 – 25 W	8.5	57.9% / 50.0%	7.9% / 3.6%	0.0% / 1.9%	7.9 / 7.8	55.0% / 47.6%	15.0% / 23.8%	4.2 / 3.4	58 / 77	61.7% / 50.8%	56.9% / 49.4%	38.1% / 35.6%	6.6 / 6.6	0.0% / 1.3%	34.5% / 27.3%	31.3 / 24.7
2	NE	35 – 30 W	0.4	70.0% / 57.8%	6.7% / 2.2%	3.6% / 2.3%	9.2 / 8.8	66.7% / 36.0%	10.0% / 28.0%	5.1 / 2.7	60 / 70	71.7% / 48.2%	68.3% / 50.0%	36.6% / 33.0%	7.2 / 6.6	0.0% / 0.0%	50.0% / 35.7%	31.4 / 17.6
3	DAL	38 – 31 W	4.7	50.0% / 47.5%	9.1% / 3.4%	0.0% / 3.5%	6.7 / 7.8	30.8% / 42.9%	23.1% / 14.3%	4.5 / 2.9	70 / 80	43.6% / 45.2%	42.9% / 46.3%	51.9% / 58.0%	5.9 / 6.5	1.4% / 1.3%	37.1% / 26.3%	32.9 / 18.9

San Francisco 49ers @

Seattle Seahawks

Sun, Nov 1

1:25 PM Pacific

Game Analysis