Game Analysis
The Niners have scored 28 and 27 points against the Rams (who held Seattle to 3 points) and the Panthers, respectively. Chip Kelly led teams continue to play at a blistering pace of under 24 seconds a play. While the Seattle offense has been anemic this year, averaging only 7.5 points this year, look for Russell Wilson to emphasize pushing the ball more as he has thrown the ball deep an abnormally low 11% of the time, where he has historically had success. The model likes the Over, so we will make the SF/SEA OVER 40.5 a *1-star Best Bet at -110 or better. The model also leans with SF plus the points and the Niners apply to an 80-35-1 ATS bounce-back situation that plays on teams that lost by 14 points or more and allowed 42 points or more the previous week.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
32.7
37.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
37.7%
41.5%
-
Sack Rate
1.8%
4.6%
-
Int Rate
3.2%
3.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.4%
20.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
29.8%
49.4%
-
NYPP
5.3
6.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
33.3
31.3
-
RB YPR
3.3
3.7
-
Stuff Rate
25.2%
24.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
36.8%
38.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
37.3%
35.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.5
3.8
Game
-
All Snaps
66.0
68.3
-
Early Down Succ
39.0%
39.8%
-
Succ Rate
37.5%
39.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
35.7%
44.8%
-
Yards Per Play
4.5
5.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
1.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
24.3
29.3
-
Run Ratio
50.4%
45.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.6
32.7
-
Dominance Rating
-4.9
4.9
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.0
30.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
45.9%
29.5%
-
Sack Rate
5.9%
7.1%
-
Int Rate
1.8%
1.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.3%
20.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
36.5%
44.5%
-
NYPP
6.7
5.4
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.7
26.0
-
RB YPR
3.4
3.2
-
Stuff Rate
31.7%
24.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
39.9%
34.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
45.0%
22.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.4
3.3
Game
-
All Snaps
68.7
56.3
-
Early Down Succ
43.9%
34.7%
-
Succ Rate
43.1%
31.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
38.1%
39.9%
-
Yards Per Play
5.3
4.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
2.0%
0.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.4
28.2
-
Run Ratio
43.2%
46.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
24.9
29.8
-
Dominance Rating
6.1
-6.1
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Dominance Rating |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
LA |
28 – 0 W |
12.6 |
45.7% / 27.0% |
0.0% / 5.4% |
0.0% / 5.7% |
4.9 / 3.2 |
37.2% / 37.5% |
32.6% / 20.8% |
3.5 / 2.8 |
78 / 61 |
40.4% / 35.7% |
41.0% / 31.1% |
35.2% / 29.0% |
4.1 / 3.0 |
1.3% / 0.0% |
55.1% / 39.3% |
24.4 / 31.4 |
2 |
@CAR |
27 – 46 L |
-7.8 |
39.5% / 47.5% |
5.3% / 2.5% |
5.6% / 2.6% |
6.2 / 8.8 |
34.6% / 40.5% |
26.9% / 24.3% |
2.5 / 4.8 |
64 / 77 |
41.7% / 43.5% |
37.5% / 44.2% |
46.7% / 55.6% |
4.7 / 6.9 |
1.6% / 3.9% |
40.6% / 48.1% |
33.9 / 31.8 |
3 |
@SEA |
18 – 37 L |
-19.7 |
28.0% / 50.0% |
0.0% / 5.9% |
4.0% / 3.1% |
4.8 / 8.6 |
38.7% / 36.4% |
16.1% / 27.3% |
4.4 / 3.9 |
56 / 67 |
35.0% / 40.0% |
33.9% / 43.3% |
25.2% / 49.9% |
4.5 / 6.3 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
55.4% / 49.3% |
33.6 / 35.1 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Dominance Rating |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
MIA |
12 – 10 W |
1.6 |
50.0% / 21.2% |
6.5% / 12.1% |
2.3% / 0.0% |
5.2 / 4.8 |
50.0% / 35.0% |
21.9% / 30.0% |
3.5 / 3.2 |
78 / 53 |
54.2% / 28.2% |
50.0% / 26.4% |
19.6% / 53.2% |
4.5 / 4.2 |
1.3% / 0.0% |
41.0% / 37.7% |
22.5 / 32.1 |
2 |
@LA |
3 – 9 L |
-2.9 |
37.8% / 39.4% |
5.4% / 9.1% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.5 / 6.6 |
33.3% / 29.6% |
45.8% / 25.9% |
2.8 / 2.4 |
61 / 60 |
37.5% / 40.9% |
36.1% / 35.0% |
44.8% / 41.4% |
5.0 / 4.8 |
3.3% / 0.0% |
39.3% / 45.0% |
17.0 / 23.7 |
3 |
SF |
37 – 18 W |
19.7 |
50.0% / 28.0% |
5.9% / 0.0% |
3.1% / 4.0% |
8.6 / 4.8 |
36.4% / 38.7% |
27.3% / 16.1% |
3.9 / 4.4 |
67 / 56 |
40.0% / 35.0% |
43.3% / 33.9% |
49.9% / 25.2% |
6.3 / 4.5 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
49.3% / 55.4% |
35.1 / 33.6 |