Game Analysis

San Francisco (-2.5) vs PITTSBURGH

· Kenny Pickett is the winner of this preseason, as he averaged 13.3 yards per pass play and his offense scored on all five drives he was under center.

· Pickett saw a higher rate of disguised coverage than any QB in the NFL last season with defenses testing him as a rookie, but he finished the season 24th in success rate. Pickett will likely excel against teams that play more man coverage, as WR Diontae Johnson can win with route running and WR George Pickens can win on contested balls. However, he may still struggle against zone teams like San Francisco

· I don’t love offensive coordinator Matt Canada due to his lack of play action and limited use of space but I will give him credit for protection schemes. Pittsburgh’s offensive line ranked 7th in pass-blocking efficiency last year despite both Trubisky and Pickett holding onto the ball too long. Pickett was one of the few QBs with an average time to throw at 3+ seconds.

· The Steelers’ offensive line improves with guard Isaac Seumalo coming over from the Eagles, who ranked 10th in pass-blocking efficiency.

· The 49ers lost edge defenders Charles Omenihu and Sampson Ebukam, who ranked 2nd and 3rd on the team in pressures. However, the interior linemen should be able to replace some of that production. San Francisco signed Javon Hargrave, who ranked 2nd in pass-rushing efficiency among DTs last year.

· Brock Purdy as a rookie basically gave the exact same production as Jimmy Garoppolo and that’s the reason the 49ers felt comfortable giving him the starting job. Purdy averaged 0.20 EPA/play compared to Garoppolo’s 0.24 EPA/play.

· Colton McKivitz is taking over as San Francisco’s right tackle. McKivitz only earned 446 snaps during his first three years in the league and will likely be a noticeable downgrade from Mike McGlinchey

· Pittsburgh’s defense allowed just a 41% success rate after week 10 when TJ Watt came back in the lineup (7th) and they should be near the top of the NFL in 2023.

· The Steelers lost cornerback Cameron Sutton but signed Patrick Peterson, who ranked 3rd in PFF coverage grade last year. However, this will be his age 33 season and he could decline.

· Our model favors the 49ers by 1.8 points with a predicted total of 42.7 points.