Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – PHILADELPHIA (+3 -105) over San Francisco

Philadelphia’s rushing offense rated 3rd by our numbers last week with the dual threat ability of Jalen Hurts making it difficult on the Falcons. The Eagles should have a solid ground game this season and Hurts has a unique opportunity in the passing game this week. The 49ers will likely be without two starting cornerbacks, as Jason Verrett has a torn ACL and Emmanuel Moseley could be out again after missing the Lions game with a knee injury. Rookie CB Deommodore Lenoir only allowed one reception for 3 yards in 69 coverage snaps but I doubt that level of success continues for the fifth-round pick. The cluster injury at cornerback could be worth a point or more.

San Francisco’s pass rush generated 27 pressures in Detroit, but Philadelphia’s offensive line is solid now that they’re finally healthy (3rd in pass blocking efficiency last week). Also, the Eagles were able to scheme some easy throws for Hurts with 64% of his passing yards coming after the catch.

Jimmy Garoppolo was also helped by play calling and his receivers with 60% of his passing yards coming after the catch. I expect Garoppolo to exploit the middle of the field as Philadelphia’s cornerbacks look good on the outside. Steven Nelson and Darius Slay faced 12 targets combined and conceded just one first down.

San Francisco stayed on the East coast this week which is a decision worth 0.9 points according to our metrics. We now estimate the Eagles home field advantage to be just 1.6 points.

Our model favors the 49ers by only 0.2 points, with a predicted total of 47.9 points, and the Eagles apply to an 82-20-1 ATS home underdog momentum situation. Philadelphia is a Strong Opinion at +3 at -115 odds or better.