San Francisco 49ers @

New Orleans Saints

Sun, Nov 15
1:25 PM Pacific
Rotation: 271
Odds: New Orleans Saints -9.5, Total: 49

Game Analysis

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Lean – San Francisco (+9.5) over NEW ORLEANS

I’m not sure there’s much to be gleaned from San Francisco’s awful performance last Thursday night. Kyle Shanahan had to scrap his game plan due to four 49ers offensive starters getting added to the covid list the night before that game versus the Packers. In general, I think San Francisco’s offense will only be about 2 points worse without quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, star TE Geroge Kittle and WR Deebo Samuel.

The Saints WRs are finally at full strength and the 49ers could be healthy at cornerback for the first time since week 1. Michael Thomas led the team with 6 targets and 28 routes last week and Emmanuel Sanders scored a touchdown in his first game since week 5. San Francisco was hoping to get back star outside CB Richard Sherman this week but he will not play. Sherman allowed a league-low 0.44 yards per cover snap last year while other CB Jason Verrett is conceding only 0.62 yards per cover snap in 2020 (6th) and has four games of allowing fewer than 10 receiving yards and Mosely has been about average in replacing Sherman. Saints’ superstar receiver Michael Thomas could have some trouble when matched up against Veretter and Drew Brees will have trouble dumping it off to Alvin Kamara as well.  Linebacker Fred Warner is conceding only 0.59 yards per cover snap (4th) and he hasn’t been beaten for a catch longer than 21 yards all season.

Like the Saints, the 49ers are throwing to running backs on over a fourth of their passing attempts but New Orleans is conceding just 4.5 yards per target to opposing running backs. The Saints’ secondary is underrated due to seven pass interference penalties of 20 or more yards, which is four more than any other team in the league. Nick Mullens will be happy to have LT Trent Williams back on the field after missing last week. Williams is ranked 6th in pass blocking efficiency and he will limit edge defender Trey Hendrickson (7.5 sacks).

Our model makes New Orleans a 6.8-point favorite, with a predicted total of 47.9 points, so the value is with the Niners despite their injuries.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • 49ers
  • Saints
SF
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 37.4 33.2
  • Succ Pass Plays 50.1% 45.4%
  • Sack Rate 6.4% 5.7%
  • Int Rate 3.2% 2.8%
  • Deep Pass Rate 13.6% 14.8%
  • Big Pass Yards 34.3% 41.5%
  • NYPP 6.9 6.3



Rush


  • Rush Plays 26.6 27.1
  • RB YPR 4.3 3.4
  • Stuff Rate 24.7% 23.9%
  • Succ Rush Plays 47.3% 47.4%
  • Big Rush Yards 36.1% 42.2%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.3 4.0




Game

  • All Snaps 64.0 60.3
  • Early Down Succ 50.5% 48.8%
  • Succ Rate 48.1% 46.0%
  • Big Yards Rate 37.7% 42.6%
  • Yards Per Play 5.7 5.2
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 0.8%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 29.5 28.3
  • Run Ratio 41.4% 44.6%
  • Starting Field Pos 27.6 30.0
  • Game Control 0.8 -0.8
 
  • Points 23.8 23.4
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