Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – MINNESOTA (+5.5) over San Francisco

• Sam Darnold had an impressive debut for Minnesota, averaging 8.0 yppp. The total passing yards don’t look as impressive because head coach Kevin O’Connell only had Darnold throw twice in the fourth quarter with his team up by 22 points.
• Darnold started the game completing each of his first 12 passes and it wasn’t just dink-and-dunk as 33.3% of those had 10+ air yards.
• The Vikings offense averaged 6.8 yppl last season versus the 49ers defense despite being without WR Justin Jefferson. O’Connell knows how to attack San Francisco’s secondary and this time he’ll have Jefferson, who gained 2.91 yards per route run last season (4th).
• Minnesota RT Brian O’Neill conceded only 1 pressure last week and he will contain edge defender Nick Bosa, who ranked 7th in pass rushing efficiency in 2023.
• Vikings RB Aaron Jones gained at least 10 yards on a league-high 36% of his carries last week and he’ll hit some more long runs on Sunday as San Francisco’s defense ranked 26th in EPA/rush allowed last year.
• So much about this 49ers’ offseason was showing red flags with Brandon Aiyuk’s trade request, Trent Williams’ holdout, and Christian McCaffrey’s calf injury. Then San Francisco’s offense averaged 0.12 EPA/play in week 1 (9th) and they look to be one of the best in the NFL again, but I don’t like this matchup for the 49ers.
• Minnesota’s defense had a league-high 55.8% blitz rate last season under Brian Flores. The best way to attack the Vikings aggressive defense is with screens to the running back. Christian McCaffrey led running backs with a 56% success rate when targeted last year, but he’s battling Achilles tendinitis and might not suit up – or at least will be limited.
• San Francisco’s offense targeted running backs on just 13.8% of passes last Monday night with McCaffrey out – compared to 23.8% in 2023.
• Our model favors the 49ers by just 4.2 points, with a predicted total of 46.2 points, and the Niners apply to an 11-44-1 ATS road favorite letdown situation based on Monday’s big win over the Jets, while the Vikings apply to a 103-37-5 ATS home dog momentum situation.

Minnesota is a Strong Opinion at +5 points or more.