Game Analysis

Lean – MINNESOTA (+7) vs San Francisco

· Justin Jefferson was averaging 0.30 EPA/target more than Minnesota’s otherwise receivers and Kirk Cousins had a season-low 6.2 air yards per attempt last week without Jefferson on the field.

· There is a case to be made that Jefferson is worth 3 points to the offense, but we’ll see if Cousins can take some more deep shots on Monday night in a controlled environment rather than windy Chicago.

· Cousins’ yards per attempt versus a standard pass rush is 20% higher than his yards per attempt against the blitz (7th-largest gap) and the 49ers only have a 22.1 blitz rate (29th).

· Nick Bosa has 29 pressures (5th) but he will be limited by Vikings RT Brian O’Neill, who ranks 7th in pass-blocking efficiency.

· Meanwhile, Minnesota’s starting left guard Ezra Cleveland could be out paving the way for San Francisco interior defenders Javon Hargrave and Javon Kinlaw, who rank 8th and 18th respectively in pass-rushing efficiency.

· The 49ers rush offense has a 44.5% success rate (7th) but they will be contained on the ground by a Vikings run defense rated 4th according to our numbers.

· Christian McCaffrey is now going to play but he may be on a snap count. McCaffrey is key to the pass game, as he is gaining 1.28 more yards per route run than backup running back Elijah Mitchell.

· San Francisco’s offense will be without All-Pro LT Trent Williams, who got rolled up on last week but returned after 2 snaps. Williams clearly wasn’t right though and surrendered a 15% pressure rate which was the most he has allowed since 2018. WR Deebo Samuel will join Williams in street clothes tonight.

· Minnesota’s defense is leading the NFL with a 63.1% blitz rate and coordinator Brian Flores can put Brock Purdy in predicaments on Monday night. Purdy’s yards per attempt against the blitz is just 72% of his yards per attempt versus a standard pass rush (2nd-worst).

· Purdy had 2 PFF turnover-worthy plays against the Giants earlier this season but skated away with 0 interceptions. New York’s defense has a 46.8% blitz rate (3rd) and I think Purdy won’t be so fortunate in this game on his misfires.

· Our model favors the 49ers by just 5.3 points, with a predicted total of 47.4 points.