Game Analysis
Lean – San Francisco (+6.5) over MINNESOTA
Kyle Shanahan and Jimmy Garoppolo started a great relationship late last season as the 49ers finished the 2017 campaign with 5 consecutive wins, including three straight versus postseason-bound teams (although the Rams were resting starters), and Jimmy G’s career advanced numbers would make even Tom Brady envious. Our metrics show Garoppolo’s +0.28 expected points added per play was the best of any quarterback in the NFL (min 100 dropbacks) and it will be interesting to see if he can maintain that lofty performance level. Garoppolo will get a new receiving weapon with veteran Pierre Garcon healthy again after missing the second half of last season. Garcon has some of the surest hands in the league and has only dropped one pass combined in the last two seasons, the lowest in the NFL among receivers with at least 100 targets. Although Garoppolo clearly has tremendous upside, there is a good chance his excellent career statistics regress in his first full season as a starting quarterback, as my quarterback model projects him 12th in the league just behind Matt Stafford and Carson Wentz. However, even that more modest projection would still have San Francisco’s attack in the top-half of the league and the Niners would be elite offensively if Garoppolo maintains the level of his first 7 NFL starts (including the 2 with New England in 2016).
Shanahan and Garoppolo will open with a tough test versus a Vikings’ defense returning 10 of 11 starters, including 3 All-Pros from last season in Everson Griffin, Xavier Rhodes, and Harrison Smith. Minnesota’s defense added Sheldon Richardson, who should provide another threat on the line with 35 pressures in 2017 and we project the Vikings to have the top defensive unit in the NFL.
On the offensive side of the ball, Minnesota brought in Kirk Cousins to replace Case Keenum under center. Over the course of their careers, Cousins has been 2.6 points per game better than Keenum according to our metrics. However, it’s important to remember, Cousins is coming in to replace a career-year where Keenum outplayed the former Redskins quarterback by about 5 points per game. Also, quarterbacks typically see their performance drop by about a point in their first year with a new team. Both statements can be true: the Vikings have upgraded their quarterback position and the offense will likely see a drop-off in quarterback production from last season. San Francisco’s weakness last year was the lack of a shutdown cornerback, as they didn’t have any player ranked in the top 30 of yards allowed per cover snap. The 49ers addressed the deficiency by adding one of the league’s most feared cornerbacks in Richard Sherman, who has finished in the top 6 in cover snaps per reception each of the past 6 seasons. Sherman has been battling hamstring tightness in the preseason, but he will be crucial limiting Kirk Cousins in this game.
Dalvin Cook was at an impressive 4.8 yards per rush before getting injured in week 4 last year and his success rate finished 3.5 percentage points higher than the combined other Minnesota running backs. However, Cook’s return may be partially offset by the loss of solid all-around guard Nick Easton. The Vikings were a half yard per play worse in the 6 games Easton missed last season and they planned on having him back for 2018 before he required neck surgery this preseason. Cook will look to start his season strong versus a 49ers defense without Reuben Foster (suspension). San Francisco’s defense was a half yard per play better when rookie Foster returned from injury as he was crucial in the ground game, finishing 6th amongst linebackers in run stop percentage, and he will be sorely missed on Sunday.
My ratings don’t show much value on the side or total (our rating favor Minnesota by 5 points), but San Francisco applies to a 70-39-6 ATS week 1 contrary indicator and I’ll lean with the 49ers plus the points.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
40.4
35.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
43.6%
47.2%
-
Sack Rate
6.3%
4.9%
-
Int Rate
2.7%
1.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.0%
19.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
38.3%
39.2%
-
NYPP
6.3
6.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.1
32.1
-
RB YPR
4.0
3.4
-
Stuff Rate
25.3%
24.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
45.1%
42.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
45.8%
37.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.0
3.6
Game
-
All Snaps
66.6
67.9
-
Early Down Succ
45.9%
46.7%
-
Succ Rate
43.5%
45.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
42.3%
38.8%
-
Yards Per Play
5.3
5.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.5
28.4
-
Run Ratio
39.3%
47.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.5
28.9
-
Game Control
-3.1
3.1
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.8
37.1
-
Succ Pass Plays
49.8%
40.9%
-
Sack Rate
4.6%
5.9%
-
Int Rate
1.7%
2.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.7%
18.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
40.3%
33.3%
-
NYPP
6.8
5.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
31.9
24.2
-
RB YPR
3.6
3.4
-
Stuff Rate
22.2%
23.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
42.4%
39.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
40.0%
23.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.8
3.4
Game
-
All Snaps
67.8
61.3
-
Early Down Succ
48.4%
44.9%
-
Succ Rate
45.6%
40.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
41.4%
32.6%
-
Yards Per Play
5.3
4.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.4
27.3
-
Run Ratio
47.0%
38.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.0
27.3
-
Game Control
3.8
-3.8
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
CAR |
3 – 23 L |
-12.4 |
46.2% /
45.8% |
10.3% /
0.0% |
2.9% /
4.2% |
4.3 /
7.1 |
26.7% /
39.0% |
26.7% /
14.6% |
3.4 /
2.9 |
54 /
65 |
48.7% /
42.6% |
40.7% /
41.5% |
33.6% /
29.7% |
4.0 /
4.5 |
1.9% /
1.5% |
27.8% /
63.1% |
30.1 /
33.7 |
| 2 |
@SEA |
9 – 12 L |
-2.0 |
20.7% /
33.3% |
6.9% /
7.1% |
3.7% /
0.0% |
3.1 /
4.3 |
52.6% /
37.2% |
21.1% /
20.9% |
8.4 /
3.1 |
48 /
85 |
38.9% /
37.5% |
33.3% /
35.3% |
49.2% /
23.7% |
5.2 /
3.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
39.6% /
50.6% |
24.5 /
23.9 |
| 3 |
LA |
39 – 41 L |
-8.5 |
46.3% /
64.3% |
9.8% /
0.0% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
7.5 /
10.4 |
51.5% /
51.5% |
27.3% /
30.3% |
3.4 /
3.8 |
74 /
61 |
47.2% /
57.4% |
48.6% /
57.4% |
50.8% /
55.4% |
5.7 /
6.9 |
1.4% /
3.3% |
44.6% /
54.1% |
36.1 /
36.1 |
| 4 |
@ARI |
15 – 18 L |
1.4 |
30.8% /
49.1% |
5.8% /
10.5% |
2.0% /
2.0% |
4.0 /
5.6 |
37.0% /
39.1% |
25.9% /
30.4% |
3.5 /
2.3 |
79 /
80 |
33.9% /
51.6% |
32.9% /
46.3% |
27.9% /
17.9% |
3.9 /
4.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.2% /
28.8% |
22.3 /
27.9 |
| 5 |
@IND |
23 – 26 L |
-3.3 |
50.0% /
44.7% |
4.2% /
10.5% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
7.0 /
7.6 |
31.8% /
32.4% |
31.8% /
32.4% |
3.0 /
4.4 |
70 /
75 |
46.3% /
38.2% |
44.3% /
38.7% |
37.3% /
58.1% |
5.7 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
31.4% /
49.3% |
17.5 /
28.8 |
| 6 |
@WAS |
24 – 26 L |
-7.0 |
30.0% /
60.5% |
6.0% /
2.6% |
2.1% /
2.7% |
5.0 /
8.6 |
65.0% /
38.2% |
25.0% /
29.4% |
4.3 /
2.8 |
70 /
72 |
41.2% /
51.8% |
40.0% /
50.0% |
50.4% /
43.6% |
4.8 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
28.6% /
47.2% |
32.6 /
26.9 |
| 7 |
DAL |
10 – 40 L |
-20.1 |
39.5% /
51.9% |
11.6% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.3 /
8.7 |
59.1% /
68.9% |
27.3% /
11.1% |
4.7 /
5.9 |
65 /
72 |
48.0% /
66.7% |
46.2% /
62.5% |
40.7% /
57.0% |
4.5 /
7.0 |
4.6% /
0.0% |
33.8% /
62.5% |
23.0 /
34.1 |
| 8 |
@PHI |
10 – 33 L |
-11.9 |
32.5% /
42.9% |
10.0% /
8.6% |
5.6% /
3.1% |
3.6 /
5.5 |
41.7% /
39.4% |
41.7% /
27.3% |
3.9 /
3.5 |
64 /
68 |
40.8% /
46.9% |
35.9% /
41.2% |
38.2% /
44.4% |
3.7 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.5% /
48.5% |
28.5 /
29.0 |
| 9 |
ARI |
10 – 20 L |
-7.3 |
32.1% /
40.0% |
8.9% /
0.0% |
2.0% /
3.3% |
4.8 /
6.7 |
58.8% /
34.8% |
17.6% /
13.0% |
3.7 /
3.7 |
73 /
76 |
40.7% /
38.9% |
38.4% /
36.8% |
30.7% /
45.8% |
4.5 /
4.9 |
1.4% /
1.3% |
23.3% /
60.5% |
23.5 /
34.4 |
| 10 |
NYG |
31 – 21 W |
4.9 |
60.0% /
55.0% |
0.0% /
7.5% |
4.0% /
0.0% |
11.5 /
6.5 |
41.7% /
52.2% |
19.4% /
21.7% |
5.3 /
5.0 |
61 /
63 |
51.2% /
56.5% |
49.2% /
54.0% |
67.7% /
35.6% |
7.8 /
5.9 |
1.6% /
1.6% |
59.0% /
36.5% |
31.9 /
26.6 |
| 12 |
SEA |
13 – 24 L |
-7.2 |
38.1% /
44.1% |
7.1% /
0.0% |
2.6% /
2.9% |
4.7 /
6.7 |
45.8% /
38.7% |
33.3% /
25.8% |
3.5 /
2.9 |
66 /
65 |
42.9% /
44.0% |
40.9% /
41.5% |
43.6% /
48.6% |
4.2 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
36.4% /
47.7% |
25.4 /
32.2 |
| 13 |
@CHI |
15 – 14 W |
-2.5 |
56.4% /
47.1% |
5.1% /
11.8% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
7.1 /
5.0 |
45.7% /
21.1% |
22.9% /
26.3% |
3.2 /
3.3 |
74 /
36 |
50.9% /
26.9% |
51.4% /
33.3% |
27.5% /
23.8% |
5.3 /
4.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
47.3% /
52.8% |
24.9 /
25.7 |
| 14 |
@HOU |
26 – 16 W |
1.6 |
44.1% /
41.5% |
5.9% /
7.3% |
3.1% /
0.0% |
9.2 /
5.4 |
31.4% /
43.5% |
17.1% /
34.8% |
3.0 /
3.9 |
69 /
64 |
46.2% /
46.9% |
37.7% /
42.2% |
56.1% /
44.4% |
6.1 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
50.7% /
35.9% |
28.5 /
25.3 |
| 15 |
TEN |
25 – 23 W |
3.0 |
57.8% /
52.9% |
6.7% /
2.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.1 /
7.0 |
27.3% /
50.0% |
36.4% /
21.4% |
2.3 /
3.2 |
67 /
62 |
47.2% /
51.0% |
47.8% /
51.6% |
31.2% /
26.8% |
6.2 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
32.8% /
45.2% |
23.7 /
23.4 |
| 16 |
JAC |
44 – 33 W |
7.9 |
64.5% /
54.9% |
3.2% /
2.0% |
3.3% /
6.0% |
7.7 /
7.5 |
47.2% /
42.9% |
22.2% /
28.6% |
3.7 /
3.3 |
67 /
79 |
54.0% /
51.6% |
55.2% /
50.6% |
38.4% /
28.0% |
5.5 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
53.7% /
35.4% |
38.4 /
25.5 |
| 17 |
@LA |
34 – 13 W |
14.3 |
48.5% /
27.0% |
0.0% /
8.1% |
6.1% /
0.0% |
8.8 /
4.0 |
58.1% /
53.8% |
9.7% /
23.1% |
5.6 /
3.9 |
64 /
63 |
56.0% /
38.3% |
53.1% /
38.1% |
52.9% /
38.2% |
7.3 /
4.0 |
1.6% /
3.2% |
48.4% /
41.3% |
29.3 /
29.5 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
NO |
29 – 19 W |
6.6 |
63.6% /
60.5% |
3.0% /
2.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
10.3 /
7.5 |
27.3% /
28.6% |
33.3% /
14.3% |
4.0 /
2.9 |
66 /
59 |
44.7% /
52.1% |
45.5% /
49.2% |
68.0% /
29.9% |
7.2 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.0% /
35.6% |
24.9 /
22.4 |
| 2 |
@PIT |
9 – 26 L |
-9.3 |
32.5% /
40.5% |
5.0% /
5.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
3.7 /
6.3 |
50.0% /
41.2% |
25.0% /
20.6% |
4.6 /
3.1 |
60 /
71 |
42.9% /
48.1% |
38.3% /
40.8% |
45.1% /
34.1% |
4.0 /
4.7 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
33.3% /
47.9% |
23.9 /
31.8 |
| 3 |
TB |
34 – 17 W |
13.1 |
63.6% /
57.1% |
0.0% /
4.8% |
0.0% /
7.5% |
11.2 /
7.5 |
37.5% /
44.4% |
12.5% /
11.1% |
3.2 /
2.9 |
73 /
51 |
52.7% /
60.0% |
49.3% /
54.9% |
45.3% /
16.7% |
6.8 /
6.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
54.8% /
17.6% |
27.3 /
24.8 |
| 4 |
DET |
7 – 14 L |
-2.8 |
40.6% /
40.5% |
6.3% /
16.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.2 /
4.2 |
63.6% /
32.4% |
9.1% /
29.4% |
4.0 /
2.9 |
54 /
71 |
55.8% /
43.4% |
50.0% /
36.6% |
42.3% /
31.1% |
5.3 /
3.6 |
5.6% /
0.0% |
40.7% /
47.9% |
25.2 /
30.0 |
| 5 |
@CHI |
20 – 17 W |
0.9 |
50.0% /
37.0% |
11.1% /
3.7% |
0.0% /
3.8% |
3.9 /
5.9 |
35.5% /
48.3% |
25.8% /
13.8% |
5.1 /
4.0 |
67 /
56 |
44.2% /
46.5% |
43.3% /
42.9% |
30.3% /
34.7% |
4.5 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
46.3% /
51.8% |
30.9 /
26.6 |
| 6 |
GB |
23 – 10 W |
5.9 |
44.7% /
39.0% |
0.0% /
9.8% |
2.6% /
8.1% |
6.3 /
3.8 |
35.3% /
20.8% |
41.2% /
29.2% |
3.3 /
3.0 |
72 /
65 |
43.9% /
33.3% |
40.3% /
32.3% |
46.0% /
11.5% |
4.9 /
3.5 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
47.2% /
36.9% |
30.2 /
30.1 |
| 7 |
BAL |
24 – 16 W |
5.1 |
54.8% /
36.4% |
0.0% /
11.4% |
3.2% /
0.0% |
6.1 /
3.3 |
39.4% /
40.0% |
27.3% /
35.0% |
5.1 /
3.2 |
64 /
64 |
46.9% /
36.2% |
46.9% /
37.5% |
26.3% /
29.8% |
5.6 /
3.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
51.6% /
31.3% |
33.2 /
25.4 |
| 8 |
@CLE |
33 – 16 W |
1.9 |
52.3% /
29.7% |
2.3% /
8.1% |
2.3% /
0.0% |
6.5 /
4.4 |
41.2% /
54.5% |
29.4% /
9.1% |
2.6 /
5.2 |
78 /
59 |
50.0% /
42.2% |
47.4% /
39.0% |
28.8% /
41.3% |
4.8 /
4.7 |
0.0% /
3.4% |
43.6% /
37.3% |
32.8 /
31.2 |
| 10 |
@WAS |
38 – 30 W |
6.2 |
65.5% /
45.7% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
6.9% /
2.2% |
10.5 /
6.8 |
51.5% /
46.4% |
30.3% /
21.4% |
3.2 /
2.9 |
62 /
74 |
60.9% /
49.1% |
58.1% /
45.9% |
52.2% /
43.0% |
6.6 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
53.2% /
37.8% |
34.6 /
34.1 |
| 11 |
LA |
24 – 7 W |
1.7 |
55.3% /
47.4% |
0.0% /
5.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.4 /
5.5 |
36.1% /
38.9% |
19.4% /
38.9% |
4.8 /
2.6 |
74 /
56 |
44.6% /
50.0% |
45.9% /
44.6% |
50.2% /
18.0% |
6.1 /
4.6 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
48.6% /
32.1% |
22.2 /
24.6 |
| 12 |
@DET |
30 – 23 W |
9.0 |
59.4% /
34.2% |
6.3% /
7.9% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
8.5 /
6.2 |
35.6% /
46.7% |
31.1% /
20.0% |
3.1 /
3.5 |
77 /
53 |
50.9% /
41.5% |
45.5% /
37.7% |
50.4% /
47.4% |
5.3 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
1.9% |
58.4% /
28.3% |
32.1 /
29.2 |
| 13 |
@ATL |
14 – 9 W |
0.7 |
62.5% /
34.5% |
6.3% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.5 /
6.0 |
44.1% /
45.5% |
17.6% /
22.7% |
3.2 /
4.6 |
66 /
51 |
59.2% /
46.2% |
53.0% /
39.2% |
16.5% /
23.3% |
4.8 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
51.5% /
43.1% |
25.9 /
22.4 |
| 14 |
@CAR |
24 – 31 L |
-5.9 |
44.0% /
29.6% |
12.0% /
7.4% |
4.5% /
4.0% |
5.1 /
4.8 |
52.4% /
41.5% |
23.8% /
19.5% |
4.8 /
5.3 |
71 /
68 |
47.3% /
43.5% |
46.5% /
36.8% |
36.2% /
47.4% |
5.0 /
5.1 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
29.6% /
60.3% |
31.7 /
33.2 |
| 15 |
CIN |
34 – 7 W |
21.4 |
33.3% /
25.8% |
7.4% /
9.7% |
4.0% /
7.1% |
8.2 /
3.7 |
43.2% /
20.0% |
24.3% /
25.0% |
3.4 /
2.3 |
64 /
51 |
44.7% /
28.6% |
39.1% /
23.5% |
61.9% /
28.0% |
5.5 /
3.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
57.8% /
39.2% |
33.2 /
24.7 |
| 16 |
@GB |
16 – 0 W |
9.1 |
42.9% /
31.7% |
10.7% /
2.4% |
0.0% /
5.0% |
4.4 /
3.1 |
32.4% /
41.7% |
10.8% /
16.7% |
3.1 /
4.7 |
65 /
65 |
45.5% /
41.3% |
36.9% /
35.4% |
44.4% /
19.2% |
3.7 /
3.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
56.9% /
36.9% |
31.8 /
28.3 |
| 17 |
CHI |
23 – 10 W |
9.5 |
41.9% /
23.7% |
6.5% /
2.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.8 /
4.5 |
42.1% /
33.3% |
15.8% /
53.3% |
3.9 /
2.0 |
69 /
53 |
46.2% /
33.3% |
42.0% /
26.4% |
28.6% /
51.7% |
4.8 /
3.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
55.1% /
28.3% |
27.3 /
19.5 |
| 19 |
NO |
29 – 24 W |
10.6 |
42.9% /
55.8% |
4.8% /
4.7% |
2.5% /
4.9% |
7.3 /
6.5 |
51.7% /
52.0% |
17.2% /
16.0% |
3.3 /
3.2 |
71 /
68 |
42.6% /
60.7% |
46.5% /
54.4% |
45.7% /
30.4% |
5.7 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
40.8% /
36.8% |
30.6 /
29.9 |
| 20 |
@PHI |
7 – 38 L |
-14.7 |
46.9% /
67.6% |
2.0% /
2.9% |
4.2% /
0.0% |
5.4 /
10.2 |
44.4% /
35.3% |
5.6% /
17.6% |
3.9 /
3.3 |
67 /
68 |
48.1% /
52.1% |
46.3% /
51.5% |
27.0% /
49.2% |
5.0 /
6.8 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
26.9% /
50.0% |
24.3 /
22.7 |
San Francisco 49ers
@ 
Minnesota Vikings