San Francisco 49ers @ Miami Dolphins Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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The Niners have lost 9 straight, although maybe Chip Kelley has made some changes in the past few weeks that are worth noting. As self-awareness is always better than brash confidence.

Has Chip Kelley finally realized that, absent a talent advantage, he needs to shorten, not lengthen games? #goniners pic.twitter.com/ypYgHtPkbQ

— EVBettor (@EVBettor) November 25, 2016

While the Niners lost to the Patriots and Cardinals the past two weeks, they have finally realized they need to play like they are the underdog, not favorite in order to keep games closer. The Dolphins and Ryan Tannehill continue to impress, now sitting at 6-4, after starting the season 1-4. However, the matchup against the Niners could prove difficult as they are ranked 23rd in stopping the run, giving up 4.4 yards per rush, which is the biggest strength of San Francisco’s team as they rank 10th in adjusted yards per rush. The advanced stats model leans to the OVER (44.5) and 49ers (+7.5), though both are below thresholds.

Team Stats
Game Log

49ers
Dolphins

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 33.8 36.7
Succ Pass Plays 41.1% 46.7%
Sack Rate 7.4% 4.8%
Int Rate 2.6% 1.9%
Deep Pass Rate 20.6% 19.2%
Big Pass Yards 36.1% 44.3%
NYPP 5.6 6.8

Rush

Rush Plays 29.5 36.4
RB YPR 3.5 4.7
Stuff Rate 25.9% 19.0%
Succ Rush Plays 47.5% 47.6%
Big Rush Yards 42.8% 48.1%
Yards Per Rush 4.1 4.8

Game

All Snaps 63.3 73.1
Early Down Succ 47.1% 50.0%
Succ Rate 44.1% 47.7%
Big Yards Rate 40.8% 46.2%
Yards Per Play 5.0 5.8
Fumble Lost Rate 1.6% 1.1%
Time Per Play (sec) 24.9 27.7
Run Ratio 46.5% 49.5%
Starting Field Pos 28.0 30.7
Game Control -5.0 5.0

Points 20.4 31.3

MIA

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 32.1 36.8
Succ Pass Plays 45.4% 42.4%
Sack Rate 7.8% 6.1%
Int Rate 2.8% 2.4%
Deep Pass Rate 16.3% 17.3%
Big Pass Yards 47.9% 37.6%
NYPP 6.6 6.1

Rush

Rush Plays 24.8 30.2
RB YPR 4.4 4.2
Stuff Rate 23.4% 24.5%
Succ Rush Plays 41.8% 40.0%
Big Rush Yards 49.3% 46.9%
Yards Per Rush 4.6 4.4

Game

All Snaps 56.9 67.0
Early Down Succ 47.3% 45.7%
Succ Rate 43.7% 41.5%
Big Yards Rate 51.8% 41.6%
Yards Per Play 5.7 5.2
Fumble Lost Rate 0.9% 0.6%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.9 29.0
Run Ratio 42.7% 44.5%
Starting Field Pos 27.3 28.7
Game Control -3.1 3.1

Points 21.8 21.6

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2016 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	LA	28 – 0 W	12.6	45.7% / 27.0%	0.0% / 5.4%	0.0% / 5.7%	4.9 / 3.2	37.2% / 37.5%	32.6% / 20.8%	3.5 / 2.8	78 / 61	40.4% / 35.7%	41.0% / 31.1%	35.2% / 29.0%	4.1 / 3.0	1.3% / 0.0%	55.1% / 39.3%	24.4 / 31.4
2	@CAR	27 – 46 L	-7.8	39.5% / 47.5%	5.3% / 2.5%	5.6% / 2.6%	6.2 / 8.8	34.6% / 40.5%	26.9% / 24.3%	2.5 / 4.8	64 / 77	41.7% / 43.5%	37.5% / 44.2%	46.7% / 55.6%	4.7 / 6.9	1.6% / 3.9%	40.6% / 48.1%	33.9 / 31.8
3	@SEA	18 – 37 L	-19.7	28.0% / 50.0%	0.0% / 5.9%	4.0% / 3.1%	4.8 / 8.6	38.7% / 36.4%	16.1% / 27.3%	4.4 / 3.9	56 / 67	35.0% / 40.0%	33.9% / 43.3%	25.2% / 49.9%	4.5 / 6.3	0.0% / 1.5%	55.4% / 49.3%	33.6 / 35.1
4	DAL	17 – 24 L	3.0	45.8% / 58.8%	4.2% / 5.9%	4.3% / 0.0%	7.9 / 6.9	50.0% / 54.3%	33.3% / 6.5%	3.6 / 4.3	54 / 80	48.6% / 68.4%	48.1% / 56.3%	47.0% / 33.2%	5.5 / 5.4	0.0% / 0.0%	55.6% / 57.5%	25.4 / 28.0
5	ARI	21 – 33 L	-4.9	42.1% / 34.5%	18.4% / 3.4%	6.5% / 0.0%	3.6 / 4.0	66.7% / 53.8%	19.4% / 15.4%	4.2 / 4.5	74 / 68	59.3% / 54.2%	54.1% / 45.6%	24.1% / 52.4%	3.9 / 4.3	1.4% / 0.0%	48.6% / 57.4%	18.3 / 39.9
6	@BUF	16 – 45 L	-6.8	37.5% / 41.9%	9.4% / 9.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.2 / 5.8	44.8% / 62.2%	27.6% / 13.3%	4.6 / 7.0	61 / 76	50.0% / 54.1%	41.0% / 53.9%	42.9% / 57.7%	4.9 / 6.5	1.6% / 2.6%	47.5% / 59.2%	30.7 / 30.2
7	TB	17 – 34 L	-2.0	34.2% / 53.1%	10.5% / 6.3%	2.9% / 3.3%	3.0 / 8.3	64.3% / 52.4%	21.4% / 16.7%	5.7 / 6.0	66 / 74	48.0% / 57.9%	47.0% / 52.7%	38.1% / 47.3%	4.1 / 6.9	3.0% / 0.0%	42.4% / 56.8%	30.7 / 26.4
9	NO	23 – 41 L	-10.2	52.5% / 55.0%	2.5% / 2.5%	2.6% / 0.0%	9.8 / 8.1	47.1% / 52.3%	23.5% / 13.6%	5.5 / 5.7	57 / 84	58.7% / 54.0%	50.9% / 53.6%	56.0% / 45.4%	8.5 / 6.8	5.3% / 0.0%	29.8% / 52.4%	29.0 / 28.5
10	@ARI	20 – 23 L	-6.5	45.5% / 52.0%	9.1% / 4.0%	0.0% / 4.2%	6.0 / 7.3	39.3% / 34.8%	28.6% / 39.1%	3.0 / 3.5	61 / 73	41.9% / 44.1%	42.6% / 46.6%	53.7% / 40.6%	4.6 / 6.1	1.6% / 2.7%	45.9% / 31.5%	30.5 / 23.2
11	NE	17 – 30 L	-7.6	40.0% / 47.5%	14.3% / 2.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.1 / 6.8	51.9% / 51.6%	29.6% / 12.9%	4.5 / 5.5	62 / 71	47.9% / 48.1%	45.2% / 49.3%	39.1% / 51.2%	4.8 / 6.3	0.0% / 0.0%	43.5% / 43.7%	23.5 / 32.8

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2016 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@SEA	10 – 12 L	-1.6	21.2% / 50.0%	12.1% / 6.5%	0.0% / 2.3%	4.8 / 5.2	35.0% / 50.0%	30.0% / 21.9%	3.2 / 3.5	53 / 78	28.2% / 54.2%	26.4% / 50.0%	53.2% / 19.6%	4.2 / 4.5	0.0% / 1.3%	37.7% / 41.0%	32.1 / 22.5
2	@NE	24 – 31 L	-16.3	65.9% / 55.3%	0.0% / 5.3%	4.5% / 0.0%	8.8 / 8.0	50.0% / 41.0%	18.8% / 20.5%	4.4 / 4.2	60 / 77	65.3% / 47.5%	61.7% / 48.1%	41.2% / 38.8%	7.7 / 6.1	3.3% / 1.3%	26.7% / 50.6%	22.7 / 31.4
3	CLE	30 – 24 W	2.6	53.8% / 40.5%	2.6% / 9.5%	5.3% / 0.0%	8.0 / 6.2	56.0% / 51.5%	12.0% / 24.2%	4.6 / 5.2	64 / 75	61.1% / 51.7%	54.7% / 45.3%	47.2% / 58.7%	6.7 / 5.7	1.6% / 1.3%	39.1% / 44.0%	28.7 / 26.8
4	@CIN	7 – 22 L	-7.4	26.7% / 46.9%	16.7% / 3.1%	4.0% / 0.0%	5.3 / 8.9	30.8% / 24.4%	7.7% / 31.7%	4.8 / 2.0	43 / 73	32.3% / 42.0%	27.9% / 34.2%	59.5% / 42.9%	5.2 / 5.0	2.3% / 0.0%	30.2% / 56.2%	22.7 / 30.8
5	TEN	17 – 30 L	-5.7	37.5% / 37.9%	25.0% / 0.0%	11.1% / 0.0%	6.2 / 5.6	47.1% / 59.1%	11.8% / 18.2%	3.0 / 5.4	41 / 73	43.3% / 58.2%	41.5% / 50.7%	64.0% / 42.5%	4.9 / 5.5	0.0% / 0.0%	41.5% / 60.3%	21.2 / 34.9
6	PIT	30 – 15 W	5.2	56.3% / 40.5%	0.0% / 5.4%	0.0% / 5.7%	7.9 / 4.6	51.4% / 41.2%	24.3% / 5.9%	6.0 / 7.6	69 / 54	56.6% / 47.5%	53.6% / 40.7%	60.6% / 36.2%	6.9 / 5.5	0.0% / 0.0%	53.6% / 31.5%	37.0 / 23.4
7	BUF	28 – 25 W	-2.6	42.3% / 37.5%	3.8% / 12.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.6 / 6.3	47.6% / 36.4%	21.4% / 22.7%	6.1 / 3.0	68 / 54	48.1% / 41.5%	45.6% / 37.0%	63.7% / 45.7%	6.7 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	61.8% / 40.7%	25.6 / 31.7
9	NYJ	27 – 23 W	2.0	50.0% / 42.4%	3.3% / 9.1%	0.0% / 6.7%	4.6 / 5.8	36.4% / 47.6%	39.4% / 23.8%	4.2 / 6.7	63 / 54	44.9% / 48.8%	42.9% / 44.4%	46.2% / 51.2%	4.4 / 6.1	0.0% / 0.0%	52.4% / 38.9%	34.7 / 27.5
10	@SD	31 – 24 W	-0.3	56.0% / 44.7%	4.0% / 6.4%	0.0% / 9.1%	9.2 / 6.6	26.9% / 20.8%	26.9% / 41.7%	4.1 / 2.9	51 / 71	43.6% / 33.3%	41.2% / 36.6%	58.9% / 44.1%	6.6 / 5.3	2.0% / 0.0%	51.0% / 33.8%	25.6 / 28.8
11	@LA	14 – 10 W	-6.9	44.7% / 28.1%	10.5% / 3.1%	2.9% / 0.0%	3.7 / 3.9	36.8% / 27.6%	42.1% / 34.5%	5.2 / 3.6	57 / 61	50.0% / 31.8%	42.1% / 27.9%	23.8% / 36.4%	4.2 / 3.7	0.0% / 1.6%	33.3% / 47.5%	23.1 / 29.1

San Francisco 49ers @

Miami Dolphins

Sun, Nov 27

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis