Game Analysis

Note: The Rams were released to subscribers as a Strong Opinion (0.5 Star play) when the line was -7 -115. That play no longer qualifies with the line having gone up to -8.5. The fair line in this game is 9 so I suggest passing at the current number.

Strong Opinion – LA RAMS (-7 -115) over San Francisco

• This 49ers offense without QB Brock Purdy, TE George Kittle, WR Ricky Pearsall, and WR Jauan Jennings has about the same talent as the Saints according to our metrics. Mac Jones will start with his top targets being WR Kendrick Bourne, WR Demarcus Robinson, and TE Jake Tonges. We project San Francisco’s offense at 4.5 points worse than average.
• Meanwhile, the 49ers defense in their first game without Pro Bowl edge rusher Nick Bosa last week pressured Trevor Lawrence on only 15% of his dropbacks. San Francisco’s defense has dropped to an average unit by our numbers, and I don’t expect Matthew Stafford to be under duress on Thursday night. Stafford has a 78% completion percentage when kept clean this season (7th)
• The 49ers rating should be -4.5 overall while the Rams are a +3.5 by our metrics after leading the NFL at +1.5 net yppl in the first month of the season.
• I don’t think this will be a normal home field within the division with so many 49ers fans in Los Angeles, so let’s call it just a half point. That makes the true price for this game Rams -8.5 before factoring in the unfavorable matchup for RB Christian McCaffrey.
• San Francisco’s backfield accounts for 63% of the team touches (3rd-highest), which will likely go up in this game without both starting wide receivers. However, Los Angeles is allowing a league-low -0.59 EPA/target to opposing running backs and just 3.9 yards per carry (9th).
• Our model favors the Rams by 8.6 points, with a predicted total of 44.5 points, and the matchups favor L.A.

The Rams are a Strong Opinion at -7 -115 odds or better.