Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **LAS VEGAS (+6) over San Francisco

You can play Las Vegas for 1-Star at +9 or more now if you did not play them earlier at +6 when they were released.

Note: Bad news regarding this Best Bet. The Raiders decided to shut down Derek Carr for the rest of the season (a day after this Best Bet was released). That’s makes our bet at +6 a lot less likely to win but I still think there is a reasonable chance that the Raiders cover. The updated line is +9.5 and there is value at that number if the Raiders as it now appears that the rest of the starters will play and play to win.

The bottom line if you’ve already bet the Raiders is to do nothing and hope for the best. If you have not bet the Raiders, then there is enough value for a 1-Star Best Bet at +9 or more.

· The 49ers are one of only seven offenses throwing on fewer than 55% of their snaps in non-garbage time situations.

· San Francisco is 10th in EPA/rush since week 13 when Brock Purdy took over for Jimmy Garoppolo. However, I believe the 49ers ground game will be shut down on Sunday as the Raiders are 5th in EPA/rush allowed.

· Las Vegas might be without cover linebacker Denzel Perryman and edge rusher Chandler Jones. Purdy would have to win this game with his arm, but it is possible we see San Francisco take a more conservative running approach which would hinder the offense in this matchup.

· This game could mean a lot less to the 49ers if the Eagles win in the earlier time slot. Philadelphia can clinch the bye in the NFC with a win versus New Orleans and San Francisco has already locked up the NFC West.

· The 49ers only would need this game for seeding against the Vikings, but they may rest banged-up players and milk the clock, although it is assumed in the model that the starters will play the entire game.

· San Francisco’s defense is near the top of the NFL in every category except for defending wide receivers where they are allowing 8.3 yards per target.

· Raiders’ WR Davante Adams is averaging 2.40 yards per route run (9th) and WR Mack Hollins is gaining 0.37 EPA/target (18th) so Stidham should have opportunities to make some plays.

· The 49ers apply to a number of letdown situations – a 48-119-2 ATS road favorite off a dominating home win situation, a 90-157-5 ATS last road game off a home win situation, and a few negative double-digit road underdog situations. In general, road favorites of 10 points or more off a win the previous week are just 45-74-2 ATS in the NFL since 1980 against a team off a loss and that simple angle keeps working (those teams are 0-3 ATS this season, including a straight up loss by the Bills at the Jets and a near loss by KC two weeks ago at Houston). The 49ers are on a roll but from game 12 on road favorites are just 9-36-1 ATS if they’ve won 8 or more consecutive games, including just 4-25-1 ATS against a non-divisional opponent, who they are more likely to suffer a letdown against (that’s 0-22 ATS if the road favorite on a long win streak has a season win percentage that is greater than their opponent by more than 0.150).

· Our model favors the 49ers by 7.1 points with a 5.5 points adjustment for Carr being out. Our predicted total is 39.4 points. That assumes that other healthy starters will not be held out.