Game Analysis

Lean – San Francisco (+6) over GREEN BAY

• The 49ers will be without Brock Purdy and edge rusher Nick Bosa, who has 52 pressures (2nd). Purdy is worth 5 points over Brandon Allen according to our numbers and Bosa is worth 3 points.
• San Francisco edge defender Leonard Floyd ranks 17th in pass-rushing efficiency but he will be contained by RT Zach Tom, who is conceding only 1.3 pressures per game (11th).
• The 49ers’ pass rush will not get to Jordan Love, who also has a favorable matchup. Love is averaging 24% more yards per attempt versus a standard pass rush than the blitz (2nd). San Francisco has an 82% standard pass rush rate (2nd-highest).
• The 49ers will be getting back tight end George Kittle, who is averaging 0.58 EPA/target (2nd) and has a favorable matchup as Green Bay’s defense is surrendering a 66% success rate to opposing tight ends (31st).
• Kittle will also be important in the ground game as San Francisco’s offense is averaging 1.1 more yards before contact per rush with Kittle on the field than without him. The 49ers are averaging 5.0 yards per rush (4th) and Christian McCaffrey will be able to support his backup quarterback as the Packers have the worst rush defense in the NFL by our metrics.
• Green Bay will be without CB Jaire Alexander and backup Eric Stokes is surrendering 0.31 more yards per cover snap than Alexander.
• Our model favors the Packers by 4.8 points, with a predicted total of 42.5 points, and the Niners apply to a 112-56-7 ATS bounce-back situation that is based on last week’s upset home loss.