San Francisco 49ers @

Green Bay Packers

Sat, Jan 22
5:15 PM Pacific
Rotation: 303
Odds: Green Bay Packers -5.5, Total: 47

Game Analysis

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Lean – GREEN BAY (-5.5) vs San Francisco

Strong Opinion – D. Adams (GB) Over 7.5 Receptions (-140) at -150 or less or Over 8 -115

Lean – First Half Over (23)

It looks like the Packers will have three Pro Bowlers from a year ago all in uniform for the first time since week 1. LT David Bakhtiari ranked 2nd in pass blocking efficiency in 2020 and played 27 snaps for a tune-up in week 18 to prepare for the playoffs. Edge defender Za’Darius Smith had 51 pressures last year (17th) but only had 8 pass rushing snaps this season before he aggravated a back injury that ultimately required surgery. CB Jaire Alexander hasn’t played since a shoulder injury in week 4 but forced 15 incompletions last season (5th).

Aaron Rodgers will be grateful to have Bakhtiari on the field, but his larger concern will be on the other side of the line as RT Billy Turner will struggle across from Nick Bosa, who 7th in pass rushing efficiency and should be cleared to play in this game. San Francisco interior defender Arik Armstead had 62 pressures (8th) and he will also have a matchup advantage on the right side of the offensive line as Packers RG Royce Newman surrendered 6 sacks this year, 6th-most among guards. The 49ers defense had a season-high 22 team pressures in Dallas and Rodgers will need to get the ball out quickly to All-Pro WR Davante Adams. San Francisco’s cornerbacks are not talented enough to cover at the line of scrimmage and Adams had a season-high 18 targets against the 49ers earlier this season. Green Bay’s ground game ranks 5th according to our metrics but they will be largely neutralized by San Francisco’s 9th-rated rush defense.

Deebo Samuel aligned in the backfield on 13 snaps (29%) last week and he is historically dangerous as a runner. Samuel’s 0.34 broken tackles per attempt is on pace for the highest average ever for a ball carrier with at least 50 rushes. Samuel averaged 2.96 yards per route run (2nd) but he will likely be limited in the air by Alexander if the cornerback is healthy.

Jimmy Garoppolo will face some collapsing pockets as guards Daniel Brunskill and Laken Tomlinson combined to allow six pressures on only 25 dropbacks last week. Packers’ interior defenders Kenny Clark and Dean Lowry ranked 6th and 14th respectively in pass rushing efficiency and should supply pressure up the middle. Green Bay edge rusher Preston Smith had 62 pressures (9th) but he will struggle across from LT Trent Williams, who ranked 5th in pass blocking efficiency. However, 49ers backup RT Tom Compton will not be able to stay in front of edge defender Rashan Gary (3rd in pass rushing efficiency).

Our model favors the Packers by 6.0 points, with a predicted total of 50.2 points. I lean with the first half Over 23 points and with the Packers, who apply to a 51-12-2 ATS situation while the Niners apply to a 15-45-1 ATS situation that plays against playoff road teams after an upset win. And playoff road teams coming off consecutive upset wins are just 1-16 straight up and 3-14 ATS (0-5 ATS vs a home team off a bye week).

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • 49ers
  • Packers
SF
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 31.78 35.67
  • Succ Pass Plays 48.6% 42.8%
  • Sack Rate 5.8% 8.3%
  • Int Rate 2.8% 1.7%
  • Deep Pass Rate 16.2% 18.0%
  • Big Pass Yards 43.6% 42.3%
  • NYPP 7.68 5.83



Rush


  • Rush Plays 29.78 25.56
  • RB YPR 4.42 3.59
  • Stuff Rate 23.7% 25.4%
  • Succ Rush Plays 49.3% 44.6%
  • Big Rush Yards 42.6% 41.8%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.34 4.01




Game

  • All Snaps 61.56 61.22
  • Early Down Succ 52.0% 46.1%
  • Succ Rate 48.9% 43.6%
  • Big Yards Rate 43.2% 42.1%
  • Yards Per Play 6.06 5.07
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.6% 1.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 30.64 28.98
  • Run Ratio 48.4% 41.7%
  • Starting Field Pos 26.57 29.17
  • Game Control 1.95 -1.95
 
  • Points 25.17 20.89
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