Game Analysis
GREEN BAY (-9.5) vs San Francisco
The Packers outgained the Lions by more than 2 yards per play last week but lost as veteran kicker Mason Crosby missed 4 field goals and an extra point. Aaron Rodgers is averaging just 6.5 yards per pass play (17th) but his protection certainly hasn’t been an issue as Green Bay’s offensive line ranks 8th in pass blocking efficiency. David Bakhtiari has surrendered just 7 pressures, 3rd fewest among tackles with at least 200 pass blocking snaps, and he should have no problem protecting Rodgers’ blind side in this game against a 49ers defense recording a sack on just 4.5% of opponent dropbacks (27th). All but 31 of Rodgers 442 passing yards last week came with a clean pocket and he should have time to find open receivers despite seeing Richard Sherman on the other side. Sherman has allowed just 1 catch in 4 games with the Niners and 3-time All-Pro cornerback will likely shut down his side of the field per usual.
Green Bay’s 7th-rated rushing offense has the potential to be even better as Aaron Jones gets more touches after missing the first two weeks due to suspension. Jones is gaining 3.29 yards per rush after contact (10th), while his peers in the backfield, Ty Montgomery and Jamaal Williams, are gaining just 2.56 yards per rush after contact. The Packers have the potential for a great ground game if Jones get more touches behind their excellent offensive line.
Niners’ quarterback C.J. Beathard looks more competent this season and is averaging a decent 6.1 yards per pass play (5.3 yppp last season), but the second-year quarterback is likely to struggle on the road against Green Bay’s 3rd-ranked pass defense. Our model favors the Packers by 10.3 in this game with a total of 45.7 points and that isn’t enough value to recommend a play in this game.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.6
36.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
52.0%
53.9%
-
Sack Rate
10.4%
5.8%
-
Int Rate
4.1%
0.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
13.7%
18.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
43.5%
36.9%
-
NYPP
6.7
8.4
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.6
27.4
-
RB YPR
5.1
3.5
-
Stuff Rate
27.7%
16.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
45.7%
39.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
51.3%
36.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.9
3.6
Game
-
All Snaps
63.2
64.2
-
Early Down Succ
48.4%
46.0%
-
Succ Rate
49.3%
44.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
48.0%
37.1%
-
Yards Per Play
6.0
5.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.2%
0.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.5
27.6
-
Run Ratio
43.5%
45.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
24.7
33.2
-
Game Control
-3.9
3.9
Pass
-
Pass Plays
42.6
33.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
51.1%
44.5%
-
Sack Rate
8.5%
9.9%
-
Int Rate
1.0%
2.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
20.0%
19.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
42.5%
47.1%
-
NYPP
7.3
7.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
22.4
25.4
-
RB YPR
4.4
4.1
-
Stuff Rate
20.1%
17.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
51.1%
42.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
43.4%
29.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.6
4.1
Game
-
All Snaps
65.0
58.6
-
Early Down Succ
48.8%
42.6%
-
Succ Rate
50.7%
42.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
43.5%
42.3%
-
Yards Per Play
6.3
5.3
-
Fumble Lost Rate
2.0%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.3
30.2
-
Run Ratio
34.2%
44.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.0
31.3
-
Game Control
-3.3
3.3
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@MIN |
16 – 24 L |
-7.6 |
38.9% /
43.6% |
8.3% /
7.7% |
9.1% /
0.0% |
6.6 /
5.8 |
44.0% /
40.6% |
32.0% /
21.9% |
3.6 /
3.6 |
61 /
71 |
41.7% /
43.4% |
41.0% /
42.3% |
60.9% /
24.5% |
5.4 /
4.8 |
1.6% /
1.4% |
41.0% /
45.1% |
23.1 /
33.3 |
| 2 |
DET |
30 – 27 W |
5.3 |
53.1% /
43.6% |
18.8% /
3.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.9 /
6.0 |
44.8% /
44.4% |
24.1% /
5.6% |
6.6 /
5.4 |
61 /
73 |
56.3% /
44.6% |
49.2% /
43.8% |
48.7% /
38.4% |
5.7 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
47.5% /
24.7% |
32.3 /
24.8 |
| 3 |
@KC |
27 – 38 L |
-13.8 |
44.1% /
55.0% |
11.8% /
5.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
7.7 |
51.7% /
46.7% |
24.1% /
16.7% |
6.1 /
2.6 |
63 /
70 |
50.0% /
51.9% |
47.6% /
51.4% |
42.9% /
28.2% |
6.4 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
46.0% /
42.9% |
22.8 /
26.8 |
| 4 |
@LAC |
27 – 29 L |
2.8 |
52.6% /
47.5% |
2.6% /
2.5% |
5.4% /
2.6% |
7.6 /
6.1 |
38.1% /
35.5% |
28.6% /
12.9% |
3.6 /
4.2 |
59 /
71 |
48.9% /
50.0% |
47.5% /
42.3% |
46.4% /
47.4% |
6.2 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
35.6% /
43.7% |
22.5 /
41.3 |
| 5 |
ARI |
18 – 28 L |
-6.1 |
71.1% /
80.0% |
10.5% /
10.0% |
5.9% /
0.0% |
7.9 /
16.4 |
50.0% /
30.8% |
29.4% /
23.1% |
4.3 /
2.3 |
72 /
36 |
45.2% /
40.0% |
61.1% /
44.4% |
41.2% /
47.1% |
6.2 /
6.2 |
4.2% /
0.0% |
47.2% /
72.2% |
22.7 /
39.7 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
CHI |
24 – 23 W |
-9.5 |
43.9% /
35.9% |
9.8% /
10.3% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
7.3 /
4.0 |
27.8% /
59.3% |
16.7% /
18.5% |
3.8 /
5.1 |
59 /
66 |
40.0% /
48.9% |
39.0% /
45.5% |
59.5% /
38.1% |
6.3 /
4.5 |
1.7% /
1.5% |
30.5% /
40.9% |
30.7 /
25.7 |
| 2 |
MIN |
29 – 29 T |
6.3 |
48.9% /
56.0% |
8.9% /
4.0% |
0.0% /
2.1% |
5.6 /
8.2 |
54.2% /
44.4% |
25.0% /
5.6% |
4.1 /
3.8 |
69 /
68 |
55.4% /
53.7% |
50.7% /
52.9% |
31.3% /
44.4% |
5.1 /
7.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.8% /
26.5% |
29.9 /
26.5 |
| 3 |
@WAS |
17 – 31 L |
-12.0 |
34.7% /
50.0% |
8.2% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
5.0% |
4.9 /
11.0 |
64.7% /
32.4% |
11.8% /
10.8% |
5.9 /
4.5 |
66 /
57 |
42.9% /
40.5% |
42.4% /
38.6% |
35.9% /
60.1% |
5.2 /
6.8 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
25.8% /
64.9% |
26.4 /
30.8 |
| 4 |
BUF |
22 – 0 W |
12.8 |
47.6% /
27.5% |
4.8% /
17.5% |
2.5% /
6.1% |
6.7 /
2.2 |
56.3% /
43.8% |
37.5% /
25.0% |
4.4 /
3.6 |
74 /
56 |
50.0% /
37.5% |
51.4% /
32.1% |
49.6% /
31.0% |
5.7 /
2.6 |
1.4% /
1.8% |
43.2% /
28.6% |
27.4 /
27.3 |
| 5 |
@DET |
23 – 31 L |
-13.9 |
80.6% /
52.9% |
11.1% /
17.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
11.8 /
10.0 |
52.4% /
34.5% |
9.5% /
27.6% |
4.7 /
3.3 |
57 /
46 |
55.6% /
32.6% |
70.2% /
41.3% |
41.2% /
37.7% |
9.2 /
5.8 |
5.3% /
0.0% |
36.8% /
63.0% |
20.5 /
46.1 |
San Francisco 49ers
@ 
Green Bay Packers