Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Over 45 – San Francisco (-1.5) vs DENVER

· Denver’s offense ranks 24th in scoring but they have a chance to finish the season ranked top 10 in the category because the level of incompetence they’ve shown to this point is truly unsustainable.

· The Broncos have had five goal-to-go situations this season (3rd-most) yet somehow scored zero touchdowns on those possessions. Russell Wilson is 4-of-12 when in those goal-to-go situations.  

· Denver’s offense has six false start penalties and four delay of games already. The Broncos have taken a league-high 25 offensive penalties and no other offense has more than 18. Denver’s offense has been penalized on a completely insane 19% of plays and there’s no way it can continue to be so high.

· The Broncos have gained 6.1 yppl on the downs they are not penalized (7th) which I think is a decent approximation for future performance.

· San Francisco’s defense allowed a league-low 4.9 yards per target to opposing RBs last season and the 49ers will shut down Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon out of the backfield.

· Wilson will need to look deep for WR Courtland Sutton, who has five targets with at least 20 air yards (3rd).

· Denver WR Jerry Jeudy is averaging 2.46 yards per route run and he is going to kill rookie 5th round pick Samuel Womack out of the slot if he is in uniform on Sunday night. Jeudy (ribs) has gotten positive news this week, but his status is up in the air.

· The Broncos are also unsure if they will have starting CB Pat Surtain (shoulder) and edge rusher Randy Gregory (knee), who has 8 pressures (16th).

· Trey Lance underwent surgery Monday and will miss the rest of the season due to a broken ankle he suffered in the first quarter last week. San Francisco’s offense is projected to be 1.7 points better with Jimmy Garoppolo leading the way according to our metrics.

· Garoppolo will be happy to have tight end George Kittle making his season debut. Kittle gained 2.42 yards per route run in games Garoppolo started last season.

· Denver’s defense has a 29.2% pressure rate (8th) but the 49ers offensive line ranks 4th in pass blocking efficiency.

· Our model has the Broncos by 0.9 points, with a predicted total of 49.4 points, and the Over is a 1-Star Best Bet at 45.5 points or less.