San Francisco 49ers @

Dallas Cowboys

Sun, Dec 20
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 367
Odds: Dallas Cowboys +3, Total: 45

Game Analysis

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Lean – DALLAS (+3) over San Francisco

The 49ers have won just two of Nick Mullens’ seven starts this season and I expect Kyle Shanahan to focus on limiting his erratic backup quarterback’s mistakes. Mullens has a 3.4% interception rate, which ranks 33rd out of 35 qualifying QBs this season. Shanahan will exploit the Cowboys on the ground as the Dallas rush defense ranks 28th according to our metrics and is surrendering 2.4 yards before contact, worst in the NFL. Niners’ WR Brandon Aiyuk is averaging 12.3 targets per game during his last four starts and he will be featured again when Mullens does pass. The wide receiver will line up across from fellow rookie Trevon Diggs, who is the worst among all 83 qualifying cornerbacks surrendering 1.80 yards per cover snap.

The Cowboys were lucky to score 30 points last week in Cincinnati. Dallas benefitted from a 78-yard fumble return touchdown and another touchdown drive of just 16 yards in the dying minutes of the game due to a Bengals’ turnover on downs. After being benched earlier in the year, RT Terence Steele has been forced back onto the field with the injury to Zack Martin. Steele ranks 55th out of 59 qualifying tackles in pass blocking efficiency and has no chance of slowing down edge defender Kerry Hyder (3.5 pressure per game). The 49ers have the best cornerback duo in the NFL with Jason Verrett and Richard Sherman combining to surrender 0.51 yards per cover snap and they should limit wide receivers Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup on the outside.

Our model favors the Cowboys by 0.2 points but the matchups clearly favor San Francisco. I used Dallas +3 in my pool but it’s not a strong lean. The model predicted total is 42.1 points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • 49ers
  • Cowboys
SF
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 38.4 33.8
  • Succ Pass Plays 49.5% 47.2%
  • Sack Rate 6.0% 5.5%
  • Int Rate 3.3% 2.9%
  • Deep Pass Rate 12.8% 15.4%
  • Big Pass Yards 34.3% 37.9%
  • NYPP 6.8 6.2



Rush


  • Rush Plays 26.7 27.2
  • RB YPR 4.2 3.5
  • Stuff Rate 24.7% 23.7%
  • Succ Rush Plays 48.1% 47.3%
  • Big Rush Yards 37.2% 41.2%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.2 4.0




Game

  • All Snaps 65.1 61.1
  • Early Down Succ 51.0% 50.7%
  • Succ Rate 48.3% 47.2%
  • Big Yards Rate 37.1% 40.7%
  • Yards Per Play 5.6 5.1
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.2% 1.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.8 28.2
  • Run Ratio 40.9% 44.4%
  • Starting Field Pos 27.8 29.5
  • Game Control 0.1 -0.1
 
  • Points 23.1 23.9
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