San Francisco 49ers @

Cincinnati Bengals

Sun, Sep 15
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 7
Odds: Cincinnati Bengals -2, Total: 45

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion – Over (45) – CINCINNATI (-2) vs San Francisco

The Bengals had the 4th-best offensive performance of the week and should’ve scored about 28 points in Seattle according to our metrics. Cincinnati failed to score a touchdown in all three Redzone trips and missed a field goal. New Bengals head coach Zac Taylor showed he isn’t afraid to air-it-out, as Andy Dalton had 51 pass attempts, and I expect the aggressiveness to continue with RB Joe Mixon banged up. John Ross had 156 yards and 2 touchdowns in week 1 and has a chance to get in behind this 49ers defense with free safety Jimmie Ward possibly missing another game with a broken finger. Tyler Boyd has a decent matchup in the slot versus K’Waun Williams and will look to improve upon his mediocre season opener. Center Trey Hopkins was considered a weakness coming into the year but he allowed just one hurry in week 1 and will need to continue playing well in this game with DeForest Buckner on the other side of the ball.

Cincinnati’s defense gave up 6.7 yards per pass play last week but they weren’t exploited as much as they should’ve been because Seattle, in typical Brian Schottenheimer fashion, opted to run the ball 25 times for just 2.9 yards per rush. The Niners should pass more than the Seahawks, especially with running back Tevin Coleman expected to miss this game. San Francisco’s offense was not good in week 1, gaining just 4.4 yards per play against an underrated Buccaneers defense with Todd Bowles at coordinator. However, the 49ers have averaged 5.8 yards per play since Kyle Shanahan became head coach, with mostly replacement level quarterbacks, so Jimmy Garoppolo and the offense should improve as the season goes on. Geno Atkins has a favorable matchup versus the interior of San Francisco’s offensive line but edge rushers Carlos Dunlap and Carl Lawson should be held in check by the excellent tackle duo of Joe Staley and Mike McGlinchey.

The market continues to price Cincinnati’s totals like Marvin Lewis is still the head coach, but the 2019 version on the Bengals has an average offense and bottom 5 defense. I have faith in Kyle Shanahan’s scheme and the 49ers offense should bounce back. This line has flipped from the advanced spread of Niners by 2.5 to now Cincinnati -1.5. Our model makes it in the middle around pick with a predicted total of 48.4. The Over is a Strong Opinion at 45 points or less.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • 49ers
  • Bengals


  • Pass Plays 27.0 42.5
  • Succ Pass Plays 54.1% 35.1%
  • Sack Rate 1.8% 8.2%
  • Int Rate 3.8% 5.4%
  • Deep Pass Rate 13.2% 13.9%
  • Big Pass Yards 56.5% 36.9%
  • NYPP 8.8 5.4


  • Rush Plays 37.0 22.5
  • RB YPR 4.6 3.1
  • Stuff Rate 21.9% 37.9%
  • Succ Rush Plays 49.3% 42.7%
  • Big Rush Yards 55.2% 21.5%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.6 3.0


  • All Snaps 64.0 65.0
  • Early Down Succ 54.2% 36.8%
  • Succ Rate 51.5% 38.5%
  • Big Yards Rate 55.6% 40.1%
  • Yards Per Play 6.3 4.7
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.8% 0.8%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 29.3 26.5
  • Run Ratio 57.5% 34.6%
  • Starting Field Pos 29.5 27.1
  • Game Control 10.5 -10.5
  • Points 36.0 17.0
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